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Started By
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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:54 am to NorthEndZone
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:54 am to NorthEndZone
GFS has been wanting this thing to bomb out
3
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:16 am to Blutarsky
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:17 am to The Boat
Lived in FL my whole life. Charley was the worst I've experienced. 100+ mph winds, took out at least 1 tree in every yard of the neighborhood. And this was central FL way north of where it made landfall.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:20 am to Cosmo
Seems to me that the intensity of this thing is a real question mark. It continues to be the one weakness of the NHC forecasts. Appears to me that modeling is backing way off on it getting very strong. I keep hearing that there will be a lot of shear once it hits the gulf, thereby keeping a lid on it. The best chance for development apparently is before crossing Cuba. There is a chance that the NHC is over doing it calling for 110 mph at landfall.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:23 am to Cosmo
quote:
GFS has been wanting this thing to bomb out
Also wants to put it right on top of Tampa. That would be historic as Tampa has not had a direct hit since 1921.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:25 am to Festus
quote:
Translation for us simple minded people?
No real defined center of circulation (one big swirl).
Highly sheared = Fiona's still twerking on dat arse, and until she moves a little more north, it's still pushing all of the convection to the southwest.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:25 am to Tarps99
RIP Tim Russert.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:28 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Fiona's still twerking on dat arse
Live look from the ground:
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:29 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
No real defined center of circulation (one big swirl).
Thanks, makes sense.
quote:
Highly sheared = Fiona's still twerking on dat arse, and until she moves a little more north, it's still pushing all of the convection to the southwest.
FYI, I'm an older Caucasian male. Not sure what all this means. But I do have some black co-workers, so I'm shooting this over to them for translation.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:31 am to SM1010
quote:
Lived in FL my whole life. Charley was the worst I've experienced. 100+ mph winds, took out at least 1 tree in every yard of the neighborhood. And this was central FL way north of where it made landfall.
It was bad, seemed to last forever.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:46 am to Cosmo
GFS has been very aggressive with this storm past few days.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:47 am to Oates Mustache
I don't mean to brag or anything, but......
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:50 am to LegendInMyMind
Planned on being in Orlando from Saturday-Wednesday.....
How fricked am i?
How fricked am i?
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:52 am to GatorReb
quote:
How fricked am i?
Gonna be a little damp and breezy, baw.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:52 am to SM1010
quote:yep- Charley is definitely the benchmark for tropical systems affecting Orlando metro area. It also was the single most intense hurricane I’ve experienced first hand. The damage here was significant for a storm that made landfall nearly 150 south of us. 105 mph wind gusts officially recorded at Orlando International Airport.
Charley was the worst I've experienced. 100+ mph winds, took out at least 1 tree in every yard of the neighborhood. And this was central FL way north of where it made landfall.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:54 am to otowntiger
So on the GFS, if you let it run it shows the storm hanging off the Coast of GA and SC.... then circling back and strengthen again to hit Jacksonville Oct. 7th?
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:55 am to rds dc
A couple of things to note from the 06z Euro suite as we wait on the 12z runs. The 06z Euro OP shifted SW a bit along with the EPS and the EPS introduced a cluster that doesn't take the hard NE turn.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:57 am to LegendInMyMind
Any chance to bounces out West? Or is the Tampa landfall the prime option now? Also when would we expect the actual weather to hit orlando?
Sorry I live in GA and generally dont have to worry about hurricanes specifically. I wont even act like i know them like people here do.
Sorry I live in GA and generally dont have to worry about hurricanes specifically. I wont even act like i know them like people here do.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 10:01 am to GatorReb
quote:
Any chance to bounces out West? Or is the Tampa landfall the prime option now? Also when would we expect the actual weather to hit orlando?
I don't think a really far western track was ever realistically an option. I still don't think it is. This looks like a West coast of Florida system with Tampa being the mid-point of options, or at least the one that will be talked about the most.
As far as timing, there's no way to know right now. One model run will speed it up, the other will slow it down. It will take getting a center to the Gulf before a good timeframe is nailed down.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 10:01 am to GatorReb
We are headed to Disney Saturday and supposed to come home next Thursday. Looks like we will have to leave a day early.
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