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re: I am going to attempt to blow your minds about people and birthdays

Posted on 1/13/15 at 8:57 pm to
Posted by shinerfan
Duckworld(Earth-616)
Member since Sep 2009
28541 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 8:57 pm to
My wife and I share a birthday but I'm nine years older. Naturally its our anniversary as well. Kind of screwed ourselves on the presents.
Posted by Rebel
Graceland
Member since Jan 2005
143829 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 9:03 pm to
Nice job getting their birthdays. Now tell me again how we get their mothers maiden name?
Posted by VanRIch
Wherever
Member since Sep 2007
11770 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 9:34 pm to
You're very very wrong and I have lost the ability to fathom what you think you're arguing. If you have 367 or more people in a room. AT LEAST 2 of them share a birthday, there is no arguing that, it's a fact and you don't even need math. I'm not going to explain it as many already have in this thread. Let me simplify it, if you have 32 people in a room, at least 2 of them will have the same birth day number of the month. If you have 8 people in a room at least two of them will have been born on the same day of the week. If you have 25 people in a room at leaf two of them will have been born at the same hour in the day. If you have 118 people in a room (accounting for oldest living person at 116 and a newborn baby) at least two of them will have been born in the same year. 13 people guarantees at least two in the same month.
This post was edited on 1/13/15 at 10:21 pm
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92903 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 11:08 pm to
quote:

Meh, In my entire life, I have only met two people with my birthday, so it kind of is unlikely


That's not true
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92903 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

Nice job getting their birthdays. Now tell me again how we get their mothers maiden name?


You must have missed where they ordered Cialis from me!
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35381 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 11:31 pm to
quote:

Is it possible. Yes it is possible.

I would agree that practically speaking, it is impossible, but statistically speaking there is a chance.

What are the odds that no one shares a birthday out of 10 people? out of 100? out of 1,000 or 100,000?

Each of those numbers have a statistical probability that no one will share a birthday. You tell me when that probability hits zero. What is the number?



You're really not getting this?

Think of it this way. How many rolls of a die does it take to get 100% certainty that there will be a repeat? We would say 7 because the first 6 could be unique but the 7th will have to be one of the 6 that were already rolled.

In the birthday example, think of one person walking into the room at a time, then announcing his or her birthday until there is a repeat. If the first 366 individuals had unique birthdays, every possible birthday would be accounted for. So the 367th person has to result in a repeat.
This post was edited on 1/13/15 at 11:35 pm
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92903 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 11:34 pm to
quote:

Think of it this way. How many rolls of a di does it take to get 100% certainty that there will be a repeat? We would say 7 because the first 6 could be unique but the 7th will have to be one of the 6 that were already rolled. In the birthday example if the first 366 had unique birthdays, every possible birthday has been accounted for. So he 367th person has to result in a repeat.


That's obvious. What's crazy about this problem is at 70 people it's at 99.9% but it takes until 367 to get to 100%!
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35381 posts
Posted on 1/13/15 at 11:40 pm to
quote:

That's obvious. What's crazy about this problem is at 70 people it's at 99.9% but it takes until 367 to get to 100%!


Yeah when I learned about it a probability course, I found it quite counter-intuitive. I had to think of it similar to my edited post with individuals walking into a room announcing their birthdays until there is a match. The second person in a room has one possible match but the third has two possible matches and slightly higher probability of matching. As this rises cumulatively we quickly get to 99%. Still seems crazy though when I don't think it through.
This post was edited on 1/13/15 at 11:56 pm
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
138927 posts
Posted on 1/14/15 at 12:07 am to
There were two other guys in my grade in middle school that had the same birthday as me. Class total was around 80. Wonder what those odds are.
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