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re: Hurricane/Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Thread
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:39 am to Duke
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:39 am to Duke
quote:
We got seven flights into 10 today.
I think this is a low level but there will be an upper level flight at some point today.
This data seems to really help the hurricane models. Will they trend weaker towards the Euro/Canadian/ICON, or will they hold the stronger storm thinking?
2
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:41 am to Duke
quote:
Yeah, I doubt anyone is going to actually want this one before its all said and done either.
quote:
It has a lot of potential to ramp up fast late Monday thru landfall. Going to catch a good outflow channel,
quote:
While questions remain, I think the case for this getting to a major is pretty compelling.
Not what I wanted to wake up and see
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:42 am to deltaland
quote:
Right after he posted that all the models started predicting a major hurricane fricking assjole
Wait a minute. Didn’t you post a wishcasting thread last year and get your arse torn up about it?
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:43 am to Duke
OK Duke, let's talk water temps. A few weeks ago, they were saying the southern tip of FL was running 91-93. Now, the highest I see is 90 around Bradenton.
It is still as hot as a two-bit whore on dollar night, so why would the temps be cooling off? Still, 90 is going to make this thing a beast, isn't it?
It is still as hot as a two-bit whore on dollar night, so why would the temps be cooling off? Still, 90 is going to make this thing a beast, isn't it?
Posted on 8/27/23 at 7:58 am to Tarps99
quote:
Isadore
quote:
She
Isidore is a man's name.
quote:
And then the very next week Lili came a knocking
I knew a real estate agent who found a 3 week old kitten in her back yard the morning after Lili. Tried to rehome it because she was allergic but got attached to it and kept it.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 8:00 am
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:12 am to rds dc
quote:
Will they trend weaker towards the Euro/Canadian/ICON, or will they hold the stronger storm thinking?
Yeah, those evening runs ought to be illuminating.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:14 am to Hangit
quote:
It is still as hot as a two-bit whore on dollar night, so why would the temps be cooling off? Still, 90 is going to make this thing a beast, isn't it?
Sun angle is getting lower but 90 is still more than enough. With the forward motion and warmth ahead, it aint going to be lacking for heat energy.
Shear is our friend in this case.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:21 am to Duke
quote:
Yeah, those evening runs ought to be illuminating.
It's a tricky forecast for the NHC. High potential for RI but probably pretty low confidence b/c of time over water and the orientation of the upper level trough over the Western Gulf. The GFS has a more favorable orientation with just enough time over water to take advantage of it. The Euro has a less favorable upper level setup and less time over water.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:26 am to rds dc
Intensity forecast looks like its a pickle, backing up your point.
90 mph, splitting the differences there but moving the intensity up gradually over time. Probably the best way to message until they can eliminate the Euro or GFS camps.
90 mph, splitting the differences there but moving the intensity up gradually over time. Probably the best way to message until they can eliminate the Euro or GFS camps.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 8:27 am
Posted on 8/27/23 at 8:41 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Isadore
quote: She
Isidore is a man's name.
Sorry put me in the gulag for mis gendering a storm or the grammar jail for misspelling the name.
There was a time when all hurricanes names were female and most people gave their boats female names too.
This post was edited on 8/27/23 at 9:10 am
Posted on 8/27/23 at 9:02 am to Tarps99
Most of the hurricane models trend toward the Euro during the 6z run - relatively weaker and more east.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 9:05 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
I knew a real estate agent who found a 3 week old kitten in her back yard the morning after Lili. Tried to rehome it because she was allergic but got attached to it and kept it.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 9:24 am to slackster
Good thing for all involved is this one looks to stay pretty compact
Posted on 8/27/23 at 9:54 am to LSURoss
quote:
Swla could use this. First model run that this has popped up. Long way out though
quote:
LSURoss
Go outside and play hide and go frick yourself
Posted on 8/27/23 at 9:59 am to LSURoss
quote:
Swla could use this. First model run that this has popped up. Long way out though
Folks, this is a run for something two weeks from now. This is not the current tropical depression 10.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 10:00 am to rds dc
The cold front is here baws
Posted on 8/27/23 at 10:01 am to notiger1997
Pretty sure it says Wednesday August 30.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 10:02 am to Hangit
quote:
It is still as hot as a two-bit whore on dollar night, so why would the temps be cooling off? Still, 90 is going to make this thing a beast, isn't it?
Not if dry air gets into the circulation.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 10:04 am to slackster
Peak season you had to know it was going to be a bad one.
Posted on 8/27/23 at 10:06 am to deltaland
Clean your dirty arse dashboard and steering wheel off baw
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