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re: Hurricane Season - We back - NHC 10% Gulf Action

Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:13 am to
Posted by SOLA
There
Member since Mar 2014
3777 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:13 am to
quote:

I am scheduled to be in Crowley for the weekend at a baseball tournament. Why they have not canceled this yet is beyond me.

WTF did you do to deserve that?
Posted by CatholicLSUDude
Member since Aug 2018
1036 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:14 am to
Can one of the local meteorologists explain where we are with this one this morning?
Posted by dkreller
Laffy
Member since Jan 2009
33976 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:17 am to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131565 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:17 am to
No change

It gon rain

Up to 5-6” of rain for the gulf coast over next 3 days or so. Most places get maybe 2-3”
This post was edited on 7/16/25 at 7:18 am
Posted by SATNIGHTS
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2008
2488 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:22 am to
Anyone know where I can find bright blue paint?
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
6161 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:29 am to
quote:

If we get a major hurricane in the next week to 10 days just west of Vermilion Bay, the storm surge would go past Lafayette.


It 730am and this is the stupidest sentence on the internet for today
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12699 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 7:58 am to
quote:

Can one of the local meteorologists explain where we are with this one this morning?


I’ll let Creed give the forecast:
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
43193 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:00 am to
Feels like we had no time to get ready, but yet it feels like now it's taking forever to just get here and rain
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50745 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:10 am to
quote:

Feels like we had no time to get ready

Well that's good because there's nothing to get ready for.
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
43193 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:13 am to
Agree.

Luckily the center of the "storm" stayed inland and isn't over the gulf attempting to strengthen.


Just ran the GFS... It's showing pretty much 0 rain (no different than what we normally get in SELA)
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14297 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:13 am to
Thursday morning through Friday morning and Friday morning through Saturday morning excessive rain forecasts



This post was edited on 7/16/25 at 8:23 am
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36218 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:45 am to
So basically SW Louisiana is going to get a bunch of rain this weekend?
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50745 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:50 am to
Yep, everything I'm reading says most of the weather will be on the south and west sides of the so-called center.
Posted by 3deadtrolls
lafayette
Member since Jan 2014
6907 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:52 am to
quote:

So basically SW Louisiana is going to get a bunch of rain this weekend?


That's it.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14297 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:53 am to
Yeah the ‘center’ is a hot mess right now but the pros have it on land SW of Tallahassee. As long as it doesn’t reform a bit offshore, this will just be a bunch of rain.

Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50745 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:56 am to




You can see in the bottom gif where the low level center is, near Panama City. If that would have crossed into the Gulf, maybe it would've done something. I think what they were watching for is if that big blob in the Gulf of America would've decided to get stacked and create a low level circulation, then that would've been game on. I think that might have been what the ICON was originally thinking but obviously neither of those things happened and this is just gonna make for a cloudy and rainy end to the week. Honestly best-case scenario for us after Ida in 2021 and then Francine last September. We need a break.
Posted by longhorn22
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2007
43193 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:57 am to
So is the center moving more over water now? Looks like he's churning some.
Posted by tigersbh
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13144 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 8:58 am to
quote:

It 730am and this is the stupidest sentence on the internet for today


That’s a head scratcher. lol
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50745 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 9:03 am to
No, looks to me like the low level center is moving west northwest over the Florida panhandle and into Georgia/Alabama later today. That blob over the GoA I believe is the mid/upper level circulation, which doesn't mean jack shite if it isn't stacked to the lower levels. That's why it's gonna just be a bit of disturbed weather/rainy and that's it. The high resolution models and the hurricane models all have most of the rain in southwest Louisiana and not much at all here in SELA. I don't see much impact to our area. I could be wrong here, though. I sell insurance, not forecasts
This post was edited on 7/16/25 at 9:06 am
Posted by tunechi
Member since Jun 2009
10576 posts
Posted on 7/16/25 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Honestly best-case scenario for us after Ida in 2021 and then Francine last September. We need a break.


Buddy it is July 16th. We got a long way to go
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