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re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda

Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52496 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to
Another 7-10 days I'm guessing. Right about the time that we're expecting our first child
Posted by poops_at_parties
Member since Jan 2016
1545 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to
What day is your wife home alone?
Posted by poops_at_parties
Member since Jan 2016
1545 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to
That sucks man. But congrats on the baby! Amazing experience.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52496 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:50 am to
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
15912 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:51 am to
quote:

What days are we looking at this making landfall on the north gulf coast?



How will this affect my BBQ in Destin in two weeks?
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34197 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:52 am to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41925 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:00 am to
Whoa. Just had my first daughter in January. Boy or girl?
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52496 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:03 am to
It's a surprise. It's absolutely killing me
Posted by Theboot32
Member since Jan 2016
2453 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:03 am to
quote:

Mudminnow


based off of that it looks like they are all in agreement that it makes a sharp westerly turn in a few days...
Posted by Theboot32
Member since Jan 2016
2453 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:04 am to
quote:

It's a surprise. It's absolutely killing me


we found out with our first and find out next monday about the new one.

its fun man!
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41925 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:05 am to
quote:

based off of that it looks like they are all in agreement that it makes a sharp westerly turn in a few days...



Thats the GFS ensemble from this morning, lets see what this one shows.
Posted by Bama and Beer
Baldwin Co, AL
Member since Oct 2010
84498 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:06 am to
Our boy was a surprise. It was great to run into the waiting room and scream it's a boy to all our family at 2 in the morning!

End hijack

Congrats. Not liking this path of this storm
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52496 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:08 am to
I can't wait


Now let's hope something starts steering this bitch north
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34197 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:10 am to
quote:

based off of that it looks like they are all in agreement that it makes a sharp westerly turn in a few days...


The latest model runs should be much better as they'll have recon data to put in the models. I wouldn't put much stock in those, just a gif showing the westerward trend that a poster remarked earlier.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41925 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:16 am to
quote:

The latest model runs should be much better as they'll have recon data to put in the models. I wouldn't put much stock in those, just a gif showing the westerward trend that a poster remarked earlier.



Those runs probably won't be until overnight/tomorrow morning, if they put any of this info in at all.. might have to wait for upper air NOAA flights.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:17 am
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41925 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:17 am to
12z GFS is still nothing. Something is going awry with it, it's like it's miscalculating somewhere with 99L. The ridge is stronger this run though.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 am to
The only thing that has been consistent with these models is they continue to trend westward which in my experience, is a really bad sign for us. It seems like in late August-September when these storms do this they always find a way to put the pain train on Louisiana. The unpredictable ones are the ones you have to watch and this is one of those. What sucks is it might miss land completely not weakening it at any point which would really screw whoever gets hit by it in the Gulf if it continues on the current track the models project. It could be a fairly powerful hurricane.

Seems like all the wrong things keep happening for this storm and nothing favorable. Don't understand the ridge coming down near Bahamas in these models. I thought it was suppose to pull down enough to wrap dry air around it.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:22 am
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41925 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 am to
UKMET is west this run. Waiting for a graphic.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21005 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 am to
quote:


12z GFS is still nothing. Something is going awry with it, it's like it's miscalculating somewhere with 99L. The ridge is stronger this run though.


Haven't looked at this run but past runs have more "dry air" around and an ULL coming in from the east. Some differences from the Euro that could cause vastly different outcomes.
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:23 am to
Gaston's developing nicely. Opened up a little eye.

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