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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - Nicole only 2nd Cat 3 for Bermuda
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to Prominentwon
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to Prominentwon
Another 7-10 days I'm guessing. Right about the time that we're expecting our first child 
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to Prominentwon
What day is your wife home alone?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:48 am to ForeverLSU02
That sucks man. But congrats on the baby! Amazing experience.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 10:51 am to Prominentwon
quote:
What days are we looking at this making landfall on the north gulf coast?
How will this affect my BBQ in Destin in two weeks?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:00 am to ForeverLSU02
Whoa. Just had my first daughter in January. Boy or girl?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:03 am to GEAUXmedic
It's a surprise. It's absolutely killing me 
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:03 am to Mudminnow
quote:
Mudminnow
based off of that it looks like they are all in agreement that it makes a sharp westerly turn in a few days...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:04 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
It's a surprise. It's absolutely killing me
we found out with our first and find out next monday about the new one.
its fun man!
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:05 am to Theboot32
quote:
based off of that it looks like they are all in agreement that it makes a sharp westerly turn in a few days...
Thats the GFS ensemble from this morning, lets see what this one shows.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:06 am to ForeverLSU02
Our boy was a surprise. It was great to run into the waiting room and scream it's a boy to all our family at 2 in the morning!
End hijack
Congrats. Not liking this path of this storm
End hijack
Congrats. Not liking this path of this storm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:08 am to Bama and Beer
I can't wait
Now let's hope something starts steering this bitch north
Now let's hope something starts steering this bitch north
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:10 am to Theboot32
quote:
based off of that it looks like they are all in agreement that it makes a sharp westerly turn in a few days...
The latest model runs should be much better as they'll have recon data to put in the models. I wouldn't put much stock in those, just a gif showing the westerward trend that a poster remarked earlier.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:16 am to Mudminnow
quote:
The latest model runs should be much better as they'll have recon data to put in the models. I wouldn't put much stock in those, just a gif showing the westerward trend that a poster remarked earlier.
Those runs probably won't be until overnight/tomorrow morning, if they put any of this info in at all.. might have to wait for upper air NOAA flights.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:17 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:17 am to GEAUXmedic
12z GFS is still nothing. Something is going awry with it, it's like it's miscalculating somewhere with 99L. The ridge is stronger this run though.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 am to GEAUXmedic
The only thing that has been consistent with these models is they continue to trend westward which in my experience, is a really bad sign for us. It seems like in late August-September when these storms do this they always find a way to put the pain train on Louisiana. The unpredictable ones are the ones you have to watch and this is one of those. What sucks is it might miss land completely not weakening it at any point which would really screw whoever gets hit by it in the Gulf if it continues on the current track the models project. It could be a fairly powerful hurricane.
Seems like all the wrong things keep happening for this storm and nothing favorable. Don't understand the ridge coming down near Bahamas in these models. I thought it was suppose to pull down enough to wrap dry air around it.
Seems like all the wrong things keep happening for this storm and nothing favorable. Don't understand the ridge coming down near Bahamas in these models. I thought it was suppose to pull down enough to wrap dry air around it.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 11:22 am
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 am to deuce985
UKMET is west this run. Waiting for a graphic.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:21 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
12z GFS is still nothing. Something is going awry with it, it's like it's miscalculating somewhere with 99L. The ridge is stronger this run though.
Haven't looked at this run but past runs have more "dry air" around and an ULL coming in from the east. Some differences from the Euro that could cause vastly different outcomes.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:23 am to rds dc
Gaston's developing nicely. Opened up a little eye.


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