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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:26 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:nope
Gaston isn't a threat to the mainland as of now, right?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:27 am to baytiger
Last modeled coordinate from the UKMET would place it just south of Pensacola and Mobile. Much further west
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:30 am to lsugolfredman
That's how the models have been trending more westward tracks which is bad news for gulf coast. If the models later show it doing the same I'm going to get prepared now because I know how this story is going to end.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:35 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Right about the time that we're expecting our first child
You should carry your wife out of state before she craps that baby out. No reason to risk it. Unless she is particularly attached to her doctor.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:37 am to lsugolfredman
quote:frick
Last modeled coordinate from the UKMET would place it just south of Pensacola and Mobile. Much further west
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:38 am to lsugolfredman
ALERT ATCF MIL 99X XXX 160823120000
2016082312
16.2 303.4
20.4 298.7
100
16.0 305.0
231400
1608231400
1
WTNT21 KNGU 231400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHING 100NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 56.5W TO 20.2N 61.3W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 348NM EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE FORMING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KT IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241400Z.
BT
2016082312
16.2 303.4
20.4 298.7
100
16.0 305.0
231400
1608231400
1
WTNT21 KNGU 231400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHING 100NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 56.5W TO 20.2N 61.3W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 348NM EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE FORMING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KT IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241400Z.
BT
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:39 am to Fatty Magoo
finally found south winds
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:46 am to Fatty Magoo
quote:
she is particularly attached to her doctor.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 11:58 am to GEAUXmedic
no semblance of a closed circulation yet though
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:11 pm to baytiger
quote:
baytiger
The 2008 authority for hurricane Gustav. With your Michael Phelps avatar.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:15 pm to Paul Allen
If that Ridge hold strong this might get interesting.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:20 pm to CptBengal
The latest HWRF just dropped it. 
It was the model showing the most intensity the last 3 runs. Now it is kind of just the Euro and the UKMET who thinks this becomes anything worthwhile. Might the GFS end up right this time? Would be best for everyone although the ridge being stronger and the UKMET showing further west is a bit worrisome IF this develops.
I spoke too soon. HWRF now showing a TS. May have been some kind of glitch in the run when it dropped it.
Latest NAVGEM has a hurricane passing through the Florida keys so that is south.
Things swings so quickly with models. lol
It was the model showing the most intensity the last 3 runs. Now it is kind of just the Euro and the UKMET who thinks this becomes anything worthwhile. Might the GFS end up right this time? Would be best for everyone although the ridge being stronger and the UKMET showing further west is a bit worrisome IF this develops. I spoke too soon. HWRF now showing a TS. May have been some kind of glitch in the run when it dropped it.
Latest NAVGEM has a hurricane passing through the Florida keys so that is south.
Things swings so quickly with models. lol
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:27 pm to BigB0882
This is interesting. Brings Gaston much closer to the US
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:31 pm to Mudminnow
Whats that ugly stuff b/w Destin and Tampa?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:35 pm to Jimmy2shoes
That is showing 99L becoming a hurricane and heading into the Gulf. Still keeps it East of Louisiana but not by much. Even the slightest shift in one little thing could make a big difference on landfall.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:35 pm to Jimmy2shoes
The invest 99L.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:38 pm to BigB0882
quote:
That is showing 99L becoming a hurricane and heading into the Gulf. Still keeps it East of Louisiana but not by much. Even the slightest shift in one little thing could make a big difference on landfall.
Boooo!!
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:49 pm to Jimmy2shoes
The Euro just initialized. Very curious to see what this does.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 12:54 pm to baytiger
quote:
Gaston's developing nicely. Opened up a little eye.
It is starting to get that classic look. At some point it will probably generate more ACE in one day than Fiona did in a 5ish day life cycle
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