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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat
Posted on 8/26/22 at 5:57 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/26/22 at 5:57 am to Roll Tide Ravens
From what I remember, after a fairly early projection for Lake Charles, the models for Ida were very consistent in terms of location and severity.
This has been very consistent on severity (between Category 3 and 4) but it’s moved all over the place in the last day on the GFS. Corpus Christi, Texas border with Mexico, Houston, and now the Ida path.
And then you have the GEFS stuff out in the Atlantic Ocean.
Very curious what Boat, Duke, and RDS have to say, especially with the Euro run later.
This has been very consistent on severity (between Category 3 and 4) but it’s moved all over the place in the last day on the GFS. Corpus Christi, Texas border with Mexico, Houston, and now the Ida path.
And then you have the GEFS stuff out in the Atlantic Ocean.
Very curious what Boat, Duke, and RDS have to say, especially with the Euro run later.
0
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:01 am to Byrdybyrd05
frick all of this. Can Louisiana just get a damn break for a few years. Go the frick east to alabama or florida. I don’t give a shite where, just leave LA alone for a change.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:03 am to Roll Tide Ravens
There is no reason to put any stock in what I’m about to show, but just for those curious...
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:04 am to BritLSUfan
There’s nothing to track so therefore nothing to worry about.
Once there’s a center fix we can take models seriously
Once there’s a center fix we can take models seriously
This post was edited on 8/26/22 at 6:07 am
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:09 am to rmnldr
When is the time to pay more attention? Obviously if there is actually a storm forming. But if models keep saying it’ll happen on a date is there a timeframe before where the confidence is high enough to be concerned?
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:11 am to LPLGTiger
quote:
When is the time to pay more attention?
When the NHC says to
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:12 am to Cosmo
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/12/23 at 3:02 am
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:13 am to LPLGTiger
When peej says not to pay attention.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:14 am to msutiger
I agree when Levi post his videos.
Or
When grocery store lines get more than 3 people in them during the middle of the day. That is when you rush to get (BBW) beer, bread, and water.
Or
When grocery store lines get more than 3 people in them during the middle of the day. That is when you rush to get (BBW) beer, bread, and water.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:17 am to LPLGTiger
Yeah, really the only takeaway to have at this point is just that the GFS has been pretty consistent on the idea that there could be something in the Gulf Labor Day Weekend. No reason to worry about timing or location since we don’t even have a system to track (and we may not even have one at all).
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:26 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
TDsngumbo
You and peej both need a ban. Especially for the "I hope Ida comes here so this tree in my yard can fall"
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:27 am to LPLGTiger
quote:
When is the time to pay more attention?
1. There’s an actual low pressure center capable of tropical cyclogenesis
2. Atmospheric and ocean conditions are conducive to TCG
3. NHC sounds the alarm
ETA: right now for the Caribbean storm you have only part of #2 which is the ocean. Nothing else is happening.
This post was edited on 8/26/22 at 6:31 am
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:32 am to BritLSUfan
quote:
There is no reason to put any stock in what I’m about to show, but just for those curious...
It should also be noted that the ensembles don't really support this solution. The combined 72 members of the 00z Euro EPS/GEFS have about 4 that show something similar to this solution.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:34 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
and we may not even have one at all
That would be most preferable.
Louisiana needs a break, but I don’t want anyone to suffer. After all of the shite everyone has been through the last two or three years, we can all use a break.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:34 am to rds dc
Adult in the thread!
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:36 am to BritLSUfan
Stop posting runs that place a hurricane making landfall more than 168 hrs out, its lala land.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:48 am to rds dc
quote:When I go to tropical tidbits, which ensemble should I click?
It should also be noted that the ensembles
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:48 am to maisweh
quote:
You and peej both need a ban. Especially for the "I hope Ida comes here so this tree in my yard can fall"
I can’t argue against that. I definitely put it out there for Ida, she came, and that bitch of a tree is still standing strong!
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:52 am to crazyLSUstudent
We all like the updates.
At this point it entertainment.
I hope it does not come as the LSU vs Florida State game coming up, people need a rest from storms, and it is Labor Day weekend.
Am I going to run in circles screaming a Hurricanes coming. No!
Change my filters, change my oil, grab an extra bottle of oil for the generator engine, and put enough gas to test my generator. Yes, but I do that normally this time of year.
At this point it entertainment.
I hope it does not come as the LSU vs Florida State game coming up, people need a rest from storms, and it is Labor Day weekend.
Am I going to run in circles screaming a Hurricanes coming. No!
Change my filters, change my oil, grab an extra bottle of oil for the generator engine, and put enough gas to test my generator. Yes, but I do that normally this time of year.
Posted on 8/26/22 at 6:55 am to johnnyrocket
quote:
Change my filters, change my oil, grab an extra bottle of oil for the generator engine, and put enough gas to test my generator. Yes, but I do that normally this time of year.
And if you don’t need to use it in august or September, it’s ready for the infamous south Louisiana blizzards in December.
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