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2
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:37 am to Duke
Welp looks like I’m gonna be the OTs Jom Cantore. Reporting Sunday live from Gulf Shores in a beach condo. I just hope they have a blue shed I can put ratchet straps on.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:38 am to Duke
quote:
HMON should be rolling out soon
Gonna be like 930mb
jk. This one has me a little nervous.
Could be Harvey repeat all over again on one end of the spectrum in terms of preparation time.
Or it can be a little shite system that annoys weekend plans.
I am hoping for the latter.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:40 am to 50_Tiger
HMON gonna be like 899 lmao....
HMON also had Harvey going swinging back into Mexico....so yeah
HMON also had Harvey going swinging back into Mexico....so yeah
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:43 am to tke857
Man what was the lowest HMON had Harvey and Irma? I swear one run had it like 864mb or some crazy low mb rating.
And to be fair, the only reason I am nervous for this is because New Orleans will flood and we already have little prep time for the metro area.
And to be fair, the only reason I am nervous for this is because New Orleans will flood and we already have little prep time for the metro area.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:44 am to redneck
quote:
guess I'm going to the camp after work to start prepping
shite, we are going to the camp for a tournament that was postponed from Cindy. Should be interesting.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:46 am to t00f
quote:
Medic isn’t there a bunch of dry air in the gulf?
Currently yes but the north half of this tropical wave near south Florida is tracking west ahead of Nate and is going to kick the dry air west to Mexico and drag moisture behind it.
Conditions for Nate will be favorable to strengthen until it nears the northern gulf and interacts with some shear
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:46 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
And to be fair, the only reason I am nervous for this is because New Orleans will flood and we already have little prep time for the metro area.
To be fair from a municipal standpoint there is no reason for that city not to be prepared for a large rain event. Now from a private citizen standpoint I get it.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:47 am to Duke
quote:
decide to sleep and the Euro pulls that shite!
Yea the GFS regained some credibility it seems
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:48 am to 50_Tiger
HMON had a 854 mb or something close with Irma. Which smashes the 870 mb world record.
Might be a good idea for you NOLa baws to make a supply run now. That cone shifts west again next advisory and has a hurricane right into NOLA the run will be on.
Might be a good idea for you NOLa baws to make a supply run now. That cone shifts west again next advisory and has a hurricane right into NOLA the run will be on.
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 7:50 am
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:49 am to deltaland
Am I the only one that sees GFS has nothing forming?
And EURO has a tropical storm at best forming
But NHC says hurricane? Based on what??
And EURO has a tropical storm at best forming
But NHC says hurricane? Based on what??
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:49 am to rds dc
quote:
So, unlike Irma, the upper levels are setup for this system to possibly come in as far west as Louisiana. Irma pretty much always had the western advance shutoff by upper flow out of the SW across the Gulf. This go around we could see a big upper high sitting over the Gulf providing a low shear environment and the potential for a system to get farther west. As always, there is an ULL to watch and the track of this feature could make or break things down the road. If it moves out just right then it provides outflow for a developing system but, if it doesn't, then it shears the system. The 12z Euro and 18z GFS both seem to favor short term movement that favors development.
In 48hrs, the ULL is over the Yucatan and moving west as Nate moves north. This provides outflow for the system but different timing over either feature could result in shear and slower development.
As Nate moves north the ULL is forecast to slide west and allow for a high to develop over the Gulf. This would provide a low shear environment and favorable outflow allowing the system to strengthen. The 18z HWRF seems to be picking up on the potential for this favorable setup.
Then beyond that, things get really tricky with an approaching mid level trough. Faster movement and shear increases just before landfall but slower movement could actually aid intensification just at landfall. The speed of Nate or the trough will play a huge role in determining what we see at landfall.
So things are moving along pretty much as expected. The orientation of the ULL is slightly different and Nate is bit farther west but shear should decrease as Nate moves north towards the Yucatan. The GFS has been pretty consistent with this forecast. The top image above is the 1st image in the sequence below:
There are still some questions as to how fast Nate can organize and how much in interacts with the Yucatan. The 12z SHIPS shows too chances for RI, so there are still a lot of questions to be answered with regard to intensity. The lull in the middle is when the system would be dealing with the Yucatan.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:51 am to CypressTrout10
quote:
But NHC says hurricane? Based on what??
Based on conditions ahead of it and both major models are doing some weird stuff with Nate pre Yucatan that doesn't make a ton of sense.
Plus better to expect a Cat 1 and get a TD than the other way around. And rds showing the SHIPS has some higher end probabilites still on the books.
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 7:53 am
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:53 am to Duke
quote:
Might be a good idea for you NOLa baws to make a supply run now. T
I ain’t even scared. I’m leaving town this afternoon and won’t be home till Sunday or if the forcast changes for the worse I’ll come home Saturday afternoon
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:54 am to rds dc
what about the cold front approaching from the west? No one is mentioning this anymore.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:55 am to Motorboat
quote:
what about the cold front approaching from the west? No one is mentioning this anymore.
Doesn't come in fast enough it seems. But that's the reason for the NE track after landfall.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:56 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
I ain’t even scared
Ain't about fear, it's about getting in before you have to wait in lines for shite. I'm about to get my grocery shopping on. Not because I'm expecting Gustav, but because it'll be a zoo when the cone shifts west again.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:56 am to rds dc
Pretty much a ~50% chance of RI kinda sucks.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:57 am to Duke
quote:
both major models are doing some weird stuff with Nate pre Yucatan that doesn't make a ton of sense.
This. Most favorable area for strengthening is in the deep warm water between Central America and the yucatan. Should have low shear and I expect it to hit hurricane status before the yucatan.
Then the question is does the yucatan weaken it or does it go just east and continue to develop
Posted on 10/5/17 at 7:58 am to Motorboat
quote:
what about the cold front approaching from the west? No one is mentioning this anymore.
It is running about 24hrs behind what the models were showing earlier in the week.
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