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Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:32 pm to tigerbutt
quote:
Why is OP just changing title and original post info when you now have 11 pages of irrelevant information? Just create a new thread for Christ sake.
frick that. Keep one thread. Those of us who are a glutton for excitement and punishment like to keep a tab open and keep refreshing. Everyone else can get updated necessary info in the OP
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:33 pm to deltaland
rds... what's your best estimate of when Hurricane Hunters will start flying into this?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:33 pm to rt3
supposed to go in there sometime tomorrow.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:33 pm to deltaland
quote:
I thought the shear over the gulf is low currently?
It is right now. By the time were close to landfall it is expected to increase. NHC expecting a sheared storm at landfall currently. I wouldn't discount it being stronger than I'm thinking now, especially in the Caribbean and once in the gulf if it doesn't interact with much land but so far it doesn't look to me much more than a one at landfall.
Intensity is a bitch to forecast, so take all the above with an appropriate grain of salt.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:38 pm to rds dc
What. The. frick.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:41 pm to NawlinsTiger9
What's the official pump situation in NOLA?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:43 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
What's the official pump situation in NOLA?
all the 1s that are broken
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:43 pm to upgrayedd
So is it gonna be a hurricane or heavy thunder storm and rain?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:45 pm to Duzz
NHC has it at 50% right now.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:46 pm to Duzz
quote:
So is it gonna be a hurricane or heavy thunder storm and rain?
won't know until it actually forms an eye
ETA: forms an eye may be a bad phrase to use currently... let's switch that to "when the low consolidates and starts spinning"
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:46 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:47 pm to DoUrden
quote:
NHC has it at 50% right now.
that's the 2 day forecast
it's 70% when you extend it out to 5 days
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:48 pm to rt3
I'm pretty positive the 5 day will continue to gradually come up in the coming Tropical Weather Outlooks.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:50 pm to lsuman25
quote:
I'm pretty positive the 5 day will continue to gradually come up in the coming Tropical Weather Outlooks.
who knows... by this time tomorrow the 5 day may be at 100% chance of formation
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:51 pm to Duke
after watching the new video on tropical tidbits it appears that shear will be low and conditions favorable prior to landfall.
Strength will depend on its path and land interaction, and level of shear approaching land will depend on timing with the cold front early next week.
My concern is it misses the yucatan and does a Harvey once it gets organized and blows up to major status real quick once in the low shear and warm water. If it's a weak cat 3 or less the shear from cold front will weaken it right before landfall but if it's stronger than that it may not have time to weaken down to cat 1 status. Will be interesting to watch. It seems the conditions and timing are lining up unusually well for an October storm to be a gulf threat
Strength will depend on its path and land interaction, and level of shear approaching land will depend on timing with the cold front early next week.
My concern is it misses the yucatan and does a Harvey once it gets organized and blows up to major status real quick once in the low shear and warm water. If it's a weak cat 3 or less the shear from cold front will weaken it right before landfall but if it's stronger than that it may not have time to weaken down to cat 1 status. Will be interesting to watch. It seems the conditions and timing are lining up unusually well for an October storm to be a gulf threat
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:52 pm to rds dc
So, unlike Irma, the upper levels are setup for this system to possibly come in as far west as Louisiana. Irma pretty much always had the western advance shutoff by upper flow out of the SW across the Gulf. This go around we could see a big upper high sitting over the Gulf providing a low shear environment and the potential for a system to get farther west. As always, there is an ULL to watch and the track of this feature could make or break things down the road. If it moves out just right then it provides outflow for a developing system but, if it doesn't, then it shears the system. The 12z Euro and 18z GFS both seem to favor short term movement that favors development.
In 48hrs, the ULL is over the Yucatan and moving west as Nate moves north. This provides outflow for the system but different timing over either feature could result in shear and slower development.
As Nate moves north the ULL is forecast to slide west and allow for a high to develop over the Gulf. This would provide a low shear environment and favorable outflow allowing the system to strengthen. The 18z HWRF seems to be picking up on the potential for this favorable setup.
Then beyond that, things get really tricky with an approaching mid level trough. Faster movement and shear increases just before landfall but slower movement could actually aid intensification just at landfall. The speed of Nate or the trough will play a huge role in determining what we see at landfall.
In 48hrs, the ULL is over the Yucatan and moving west as Nate moves north. This provides outflow for the system but different timing over either feature could result in shear and slower development.
As Nate moves north the ULL is forecast to slide west and allow for a high to develop over the Gulf. This would provide a low shear environment and favorable outflow allowing the system to strengthen. The 18z HWRF seems to be picking up on the potential for this favorable setup.
Then beyond that, things get really tricky with an approaching mid level trough. Faster movement and shear increases just before landfall but slower movement could actually aid intensification just at landfall. The speed of Nate or the trough will play a huge role in determining what we see at landfall.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:52 pm to Duzz
quote:
is it gonna be a hurricane or heavy thunder storm and rain?
At this point it could be either.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:55 pm to rds dc
RGB really showing the spin tonight
Posted on 10/3/17 at 9:56 pm to rds dc
I hope it doesn't ramp up too fast down there, I know they can given the presentation of the coast there.
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