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2
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:04 pm to Cosmo
Some people evacuated for Georges but Ivan was a massive evacuation of New Orleans that proved to be unnecessary.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:07 pm to Hangit
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:07 pm to MrFreakinMiyagi
quote:
Helene is the worst flood event the Tampa Bay area has seen in any of our lifetimes. *knock on wood*
So yes, more people are evacuating on account of what happened 2 weeks ago.
This still would have the biggest evacuation of the west coast in a long time.
Yeah… sorry guys for any of the insensitive language. I’m just exhausted from being on roofs everyday since the 13th or so.
Here’s a comparison of Milton’s vs Helene’s advisory forecast for wind field:
Milton:
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
Helene:
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 140SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 70SW 60NW.
Obviously this doesn’t take into account the seafloor geography and bays/inlets, etc. It’s going to be fascinating albeit horrifying to watch.
Godspeed to everyone in Milton’s path
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:08 pm to Cosmo
quote:
How many storms have bottomed out below 900mb, weakened to 930ish then bottomed out below 900 again?
I started trying to look, but searching right now is next to useless with Milton dominating all the keyword searches.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:09 pm to The Boat
quote:
Cindy was not hyped at all and was called a tropical storm when it made landfall. It surprised some people and was upgraded to a hurricane after the season.
i was living in Montegut and weren’t even under a mandatory evacuation for Cindy.
i didn’t even lose power until the back side after the winds shifted.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:12 pm to Nutriaitch
We should be getting some good wind measurements in the eastern eyewall shortly and maybe another center drop.
This post was edited on 10/8/24 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:20 pm to LegendInMyMind
I asked ChatGPT this question and this was its response:
quote:
There have been no known Atlantic hurricanes that have bottomed out below 900 millibars (mb), then risen above 900 mb, and subsequently bottomed out below 900 mb again. Such a pattern would be highly unusual in the Atlantic due to the physical dynamics and atmospheric conditions typically governing hurricane behavior.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:20 pm to Cosmo
shite fricked up the USVI
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:21 pm to rds dc
How worried are we about this storm after milton?
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:22 pm to Nutriaitch
I can confirm Cindy was just a Tropical storm and after the NHC relooked at some of the radar data they found one cell that had greater than 75 mph winds. It was a day/evening storm. I think I stayed at work that night knowing the power on the way to my house was out, but they were not out for long.
The usual places flooded outside of the parish levees.
Rita a few month later wrecked Terrebonne parish. I think the surge was 8 feet and it was no match for the little potato levees the parish had back then.
Now the levees are along the Morganza alignment and are much higher. There are massive structures to keep out the water. Francine was a close one in some spots of lower Terrebonne at just over 10 feet of Surge at the Bayou Terrebonne Lock. HTV showed a photo that a Levee District employee took of the water at the Lock. The water was about even with the Lock Structure.
The usual places flooded outside of the parish levees.
Rita a few month later wrecked Terrebonne parish. I think the surge was 8 feet and it was no match for the little potato levees the parish had back then.
Now the levees are along the Morganza alignment and are much higher. There are massive structures to keep out the water. Francine was a close one in some spots of lower Terrebonne at just over 10 feet of Surge at the Bayou Terrebonne Lock. HTV showed a photo that a Levee District employee took of the water at the Lock. The water was about even with the Lock Structure.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:24 pm to Scoper
quote:
How worried are we about this storm after milton?
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:24 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
That 2005 Hurricane season will never be topped.
I remember TWC saying every season would be like that from then on due to global warming
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:25 pm to Tarps99
quote:
Rita a few month later wrecked Terrebonne parish. I think the surge was 8 feet and it was no match for the little potato levees the parish had back then. Now the levees are along the Morganza alignment and are much higher. There are massive structures to keep out the water. Francine was a close one in some spots of lower Terrebonne at just over 10 feet of Surge at the Bayou Terrebonne Lock. HTV showed a photo that a Levee District employee took of the water at the Lock. The water was about even with the Lock Structure.
yep flooded the shite out of Montegut.
didn’t get water inside my house, but it was surrounded for a couple days.
Francine brought 10.4 at the floodgate. Highest ever recorded for the parish.
definitely would have been inside my house if not for Morganza.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:26 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
i was living in Montegut and weren’t even under a mandatory evacuation for Cindy.
That’s because it was thought as a tropical storm. Cindy was UNDERforecasted. It wasn’t doomsday forecasted in the slightest.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:27 pm to deltaland
We did not get an eye drop with that pass.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:28 pm to The Boat
Yes, more than half of NOLA evacuated for Ivan. I remember driving around and it was a ghost town. That just shows you how far the modeling and forecasting has come since 2004. I think it was Bob Breck who was correctly assuring us that Ivan was not coming to NOLA despite the cone.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:31 pm to rmnldr
quote:
I’ll rephrase it: do y’all think the level of attention this storm has garnered and the extent of evacuation orders being heeded by the populace is being heavily influenced by Helene’s impacts in the Carolinas?
It’s being influenced by the 4th strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin bearing down on a metropolitan area of over 3 million that sits literally right on a bay in a low lying area that hasn’t had a direct hit from a hurricane in over 100 years, meaning most buildings aren’t built to modern hurricane code to withstand such a brutal storm and surge.
quote:
which I find interesting because the wind/surge damage in Florida was not catastrophic
Because it made landfall in an area that’s mostly swamp
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:33 pm to rmnldr
quote:
Man that post should be used as an IQ test.
Yeah and you got a 65 for it.
Posted on 10/8/24 at 6:33 pm to Tall Tiger
quote:
Yes, more than half of NOLA evacuated for Ivan. I remember driving around and it was a ghost town. That just shows you how far the modeling and forecasting has come since 2004. I think it was Bob Breck who was correctly assuring us that Ivan was not coming to NOLA despite the cone.
My family stayed behind for Ivan. Confirmed ghost town in Arabi. Walked down the street to watch the cops close the NO/STB border at the barracks.
This post was edited on 10/8/24 at 6:34 pm
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