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jimbeam
USA Fan
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
56255 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
So we’re looking at major hurricane potential or no?
This post was edited on 9/10 at 7:02 pm


PsychTiger
LSU Fan
Charleston
Member since Jul 2004
65632 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

ropical Storm appears to be the strongest outcome between Louisiana and Alabama.


I believe that landmass has yet to be named.


upgrayedd
Lamar Fan
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
94891 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
son of a bitch.

I've had 2 projects on hold for months due to the constant rain and now that I'm about to start them this happens.


MrLarson
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2014
29064 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

I believe that landmass has yet to be named.


Hurricanes don't even want to go there.


fishfighter
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2008
34018 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
Need the rain very bad here, but no wind.


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PsychTiger
LSU Fan
Charleston
Member since Jul 2004
65632 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

Hurricanes don't even want to go there.


Not that anyone would notice if they did. All the focus would be on nearby places such as New Orleans or Mobile.


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22
MrLarson
Auburn Fan
Member since Oct 2014
29064 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

I've had 2 projects on hold for months due to the constant rain and now that I'm about to start them this happens.


Think of the OT when they start but somehow I'll bet you're on salary


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
14741 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

So we’re looking at major hurricane potential or no?



Can't say but no model is showing anything of significance. For several days now models have been showing an area of disturbed weather moving across the Gulf but none have shown a hurricane. Based purely off the models, probably not much but maybe a low end TS

Obviously, that could change but right now it doesn't appear to pose any kind of serious threat.



upgrayedd
Lamar Fan
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
94891 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

Think of the OT when they start but somehow I'll bet you're on salary



Yeah, but I have an impatient client


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01
bayoudude
LSU Fan
Houma
Member since Dec 2007
19721 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
God I hope not as I am having a 60x60 pole barn built at my property at the moment....


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deuce985
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2008
17370 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
Needs to hurry up and hit land. Those type of systems make me nervous when we're at the peak season and it's almost 6 days out. It could go straight into some super fuel waters and then it would just need some other favorable conditions to see it start to gather. It has already looked like it was getting a little better organized.

I don't trust computer models and intensity projections especially in GoM waters. The waters it's going into is over 90f on that path.
This post was edited on 9/10 at 10:55 pm


jimbeam
USA Fan
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
56255 posts
 Online 

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
Sounds good


rt3
LSU Fan
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
81433 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
Advocate starting the train

quote:

A tropical disturbance is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, hurricane forecasters said Tuesday night. And its chances of developing into a tropical depression within five days have increased from 30% to 40%.

As of 7 p.m. Tuesday, the disturbance was over Turks and Caicos, the National Hurricane Center said. It's expected to move northwest over the next few days across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula, dropping heavy rain as it goes.

It is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend and forecasters say "conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico."

As of Tuesday night, it was being given a medium chance of developing into at least a tropical depression, up from a low chance earlier in the day.

The storm categories, in increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane.

An expected path for the potential system hasn't yet been determined.


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Tiger985
Member since Nov 2006
1976 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:


Can't say but no model is showing anything of significance. For several days now models have been showing an area of disturbed weather moving across the Gulf but none have shown a hurricane. Based purely off the models, probably not much but maybe a low end TS


You know very well the models struggle with intensity.

Multiple models called for no development for the system that became Dorian and even the NHC had Dorian on the Florida coast as a tropical storm mere days before she was a Cat 3+.

Way too soon to be making any intensity forecasts for this one.

It may be nothing but it could also become a major concern.


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
28256 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

I don't trust computer models and intensity projections especially in GoM waters. The waters it's going into is over 90f on that path


It's going to be rolling in with an upper low, which is going to shear it most of the way in. That's why the models aren't doing much with it.

If it can get in the NE side of the upper low, it'll have a window to organize but currently it looks like it happens too late to do very much.
This post was edited on 9/10 at 11:18 pm


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20
AubieALUMdvm
Carolina Panthers Fan
Member since Oct 2011
11678 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
quote:

Way too soon to be making any intensity forecasts for this one.


First words he typed were literally “can’t say.”

Go get your shine box


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70
deuce985
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2008
17370 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
That's a way more complex situation than you have here with this disturbance...

That had possibilities on the table it could intensify and it did because it went to all the worst case scenarios missing land multiple times. Also, Dorian said frick all on the path it took. Not really a comparable situation.
This post was edited on 9/10 at 11:39 pm


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12
tketaco
Houston Astros Fan
SoHo Vatos
Member since Jan 2010
12963 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
Alright just in time to frick my shut up great.


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02
tLSU
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
6849 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats
Wunderground.com has a great blog for other wishcasters like you.


DawgCountry
Kennesaw St. Fan
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
24190 posts

re: Hurricane Jerry, Imelda, More Areas to Watch but No Serious Gulf Threats


This post was edited on 9/11 at 6:36 am


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