re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Highest since Hurricane Fran in 1996

Historic Crests
(1) 16.20 ft on 10/15/1954
(2) 12.70 ft on 09/06/1996
(3) 7.42 ft on 10/04/2015
(4) 7.31 ft on 12/13/2012
(5) 7.14 ft on 10/27/2015
(6) 7.11 ft on 09/25/2008
(7) 7.05 ft on 10/05/2015
(8) 7.04 ft on 06/06/2012
(9) 7.00 ft on 10/09/2006

I'll help you troubleshoot that issue

the camera went from being 30 miles offshore to 15 miles onshore

326
WTNT41 KNHC 141449
TCDAT1

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Florence's satellite signature remains very impressive even though
the eye is now located just inland over southeastern North Carolina
near Cape Fear. However, land interaction has taken its toll on the
inner-core circulation, and the previously well-defined eye in
radar imagery has shrunk and become filled with rain echoes. The
advisory intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on earlier
reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA
Doppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington and Morehead
City, and nearby surface observations. The central pressure of 958
mb is based on observations from a NOAA NOS site in Wrightsville
Beach and a Weatherflow private station in Federal Point. Another
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling the portion of
Florence's circulation over water during the next few hours.

Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate
is now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a
weak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical
ridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours
across South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over
the eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the
region over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in
and shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually
turn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to
the middle of the model guidance envelope.

Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence
has weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the
center of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening
forecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South
Carolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS
model.

Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside later
today, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard
associated with slow-moving Florence is and will be extremely heavy
rainfall. More than 14 inches of rain has already fallen in many
areas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to
come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland
through the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
today and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the
South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is
expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could also
spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next
couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.0N 78.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Basically a Tyrone and it's just starting

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We could be looking at BBC MFM levels before this is over.

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37.61" of rain has fallen in the last two days, with 20.41" coming in the last 12 hours.

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They were calling for 13 ft storm surge in some places.

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That's what you'd call for if the winds remained around 120+ mph.

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That's what you'd call for if the winds remained around 120+ mph.

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The weather channel is still holding out hope they get a 13 ft surge somewhere.

Breezy and overcast in Columbia. We’re under a Tropical Storm Watch even though we’re not supposed to get anything until tomorrow. Buddy on the coast said things are starting pick up his way.

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We’re under a Tropical Storm Watch even though we’re not supposed to get anything until tomorrow.

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That's exactly how "watches" are supposed to work.