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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:24 pm to biggsc
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:24 pm to biggsc
Latest ICON has a Miami area landfall then up the peninsula and out to sea.
Looks like gulf threat is all but gone, the models are coming into agreement on Florida landfall then up the peninsula and then skirt the east coast
Looks like gulf threat is all but gone, the models are coming into agreement on Florida landfall then up the peninsula and then skirt the east coast
2
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:24 pm to MountainTiger
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:25 pm to Duke
Those coastal areas can handle a ton of rain but gotdamn
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:25 pm to Slagathor
quote:what was the thing under the water we kept shitposting about?
RIP Kevin the Flagggggg! #neverforget
Shitposting on that and then on the stormchaser's feeds are some of my fondest memories
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:28 pm to deltaland
What was the storm last year or the year before that was projected to hit Miami but changed course at the last minute? I remember there were a lot of concerns about the amount of construction cranes downtown.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:29 pm to deltaland
Right now maybe. The environmental conditions are fluid. Tomorrow you could see a big shift westward for all you know. It could then continue to trend westward before it makes a second landfall. The error goes down closer to landfall.
You're also dealing with a storm that the models have shite the bed on for the most part in short and long term projections. They have been all over the place. It's definitely premature to be saying it's not a gulf threat anymore.
You're also dealing with a storm that the models have shite the bed on for the most part in short and long term projections. They have been all over the place. It's definitely premature to be saying it's not a gulf threat anymore.
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:30 pm to Bedhog
I'm very impressed with the knowledge in this thread. Don't live anywhere near hurricanes so I've never followed one of these.
I'd like some advice. I fly to Key West on Saturday and I'm all over Keys until Wednesday. With Dorian slowing it looks like weather will be fine on Saturday. It also looks like the brunt will miss the Keys but it still makes me nervous to fly into a potential Category 4 hurricane path. I would hate to be down there and it turn more south. I'm leaning towards going because odds look pretty slim the eye comes close to there but not really sure what to do.
I'd like some advice. I fly to Key West on Saturday and I'm all over Keys until Wednesday. With Dorian slowing it looks like weather will be fine on Saturday. It also looks like the brunt will miss the Keys but it still makes me nervous to fly into a potential Category 4 hurricane path. I would hate to be down there and it turn more south. I'm leaning towards going because odds look pretty slim the eye comes close to there but not really sure what to do.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:33 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:Get a window seat on the left side of the plane.
not really sure what to do
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:34 pm to threeputtforbogie
Irma, hit Marco Island instead then went up the state.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:34 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
I'd like some advice. I fly to Key West on Saturday and I'm all over Keys until Wednesday. With Dorian slowing it looks like weather will be fine on Saturday. It also looks like the brunt will miss the Keys but it still makes me nervous to fly into a potential Category 4 hurricane path. I would hate to be down there and it turn more south. I'm leaning towards going because odds look pretty slim the eye comes close to there but not really sure what to do.
When is the latest you can decide?
Right now it looks like the trip is probably going to be fine but there's still some potential for a southern path. The scenario gets clearer the closer it gets to landfall, so I'd just wait and see for now.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:35 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
I'd like some advice. I fly to Key West on Saturday and I'm all over Keys until Wednesday. With Dorian slowing it looks like weather will be fine on Saturday. It also looks like the brunt will miss the Keys but it still makes me nervous to fly into a potential Category 4 hurricane path. I would hate to be down there and it turn more south. I'm leaning towards going because odds look pretty slim the eye comes close to there but not really sure what to do.
I'm in the same situation but I'm flying into Miami tomorrow and driving to the Keys. All non refundable and too late for trip insurance. Having a hell of a time making the call on this.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:35 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
fly to Key West on Saturday
I have no idea about the weather but if you get to go check out Hogfish Grill on Stock Island. ....excellent stuff!
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:37 pm to Beessnax
This “cool” front didn’t do much to the Baton Rouge heat
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:37 pm to Duke
quote:
When is the latest you can decide?
I could bail all the way up to around 10AM EST Saturday morning but I'd really like to know tomorrow. Definitely waiting and seeing for now but I'm getting nothing done at work.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:39 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Those coastal areas can handle a ton of rain but gotdamn
It's a pretty nasty set up. The king tides are going to be in play, the heaviest rainfall locations will also get onshore flow that will hamper draining to anything that flows to the Atlantic. Not really sure where all the streams and rivers drain to in that part of the world.
I'd definitely be looking into that anywhere in eastern Florida.
The flood threat is going to be lost in the hype of a potential 4 into Florida, but everyone near the coast all the way up to SC should be preparing for flooding.
Man, we've seen far too many storms lately have steering fall apart as they make landfall. Us in 2016 (not officially tropical of course), Harvey, Florence, and now potentially Dorian. Not to mention the firehouse into SC back in 2015.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:41 pm to saralsim
quote:
His name is Jeff Piotrowski.
Jeff is an OT legend.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:41 pm to deuce985
quote:My concern is the high pressure ridge currently above it moves east, then moves back west after Dorian has made it's move west, cutting it off from moving north and pushing it further south and west, then the high coming in from Texas pinches against the other ridge of high pressure and holds it in the GOM in a basically stationary position for 24-36 hours, then both high-pressure ridges recede and Dorin is out there as a monster after revving up in the much warmer waters of the GOM than it currently over now. That's pretty much worst case scenario.
Right now maybe. The environmental conditions are fluid. Tomorrow you could see a big shift westward for all you know. It could then continue to trend westward before it makes a second landfall. The error goes down closer to landfall.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:41 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
I could bail all the way up to around 10AM EST Saturday morning but I'd really like to know tomorrow
Check in tomorrow night and see what's up.
I think it'll be fine as it stands now, but I'm not about to tell someone to go to an island just yet.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:43 pm to Duke
Trump is getting it now.
Thing is on a course to take out Mar A Lago and then go back out to sea, restrengthen and head directly to Washington DC.
I know, political board!
Thing is on a course to take out Mar A Lago and then go back out to sea, restrengthen and head directly to Washington DC.
I know, political board!
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 8/29/19 at 12:44 pm to Duke
I wish people would stop being so hardheaded on climate change. I'm not saying this is happening here but there's absolutely no denying that climate changing is happening around the world. Anyone who says otherwise is absolutely ignorant. What you CAN'T say is humans are solely responsible for climate change because there's not enough scientific evidence to back that claim up.
My personal opinion is humans have some influence on it but it's also based on a cycle on Earth. I definitely wouldn't shoulder the blame solely on human shoulders. That said, I'd rather attempt to do something about it rather than twiddle my thumbs laughing at all the big corporations trying to make money on it. At least try and see if conditions can improve?
My personal opinion is humans have some influence on it but it's also based on a cycle on Earth. I definitely wouldn't shoulder the blame solely on human shoulders. That said, I'd rather attempt to do something about it rather than twiddle my thumbs laughing at all the big corporations trying to make money on it. At least try and see if conditions can improve?
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 12:45 pm
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