re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

right now no...but it could be next week. there's a lot of timing at play here especially the weakness in the ridge. it's possible this could shift further west or east depending on where the weakness in the ridge is by the time it approaches florida. way too early to be saying it's not a threat but also definitely too early to be saying it's a threat too.

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John Hope used to be the real deal on TWC

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Whatever happened to Dr Steve Lyons and Stu Ostro?

The 0Z EURO tracks #Dorian farther south into FL. Appears to make landfall near West Palm Beach. UKMET, CMC & ICON models are very similar. #onemodelrun

WTNT45 KNHC 290843
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to
have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted
penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with
the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data
from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central
pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said,
the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the
initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory.

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.

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So what did the overnight model runs do with it?

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The LA wishcasters don’t want to talk about it. They’ll pivot to the “lots of time for things to change” mantra today. Which is true, but it’s still gonna be fun to watch the pivot occur today .

Euro shows it slamming into southern FL and turning north up the middle. Bad scenario for them.

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Euro shows it slamming into southern FL and turning north up the middle. Bad scenario for them

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Definitely, bad for them. But not something that hasn’t already happened.

Hurricane Frances in 2004 slammed into central Florida and then curved back into the panhandle after getting into the gulf. Here is her track:

Saying Cat 3-4 with landing near Melbourne, FL as Cat 4.

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Bill Karins @BillKarins · 24m Good morning, overnight models continue push #Dorian into Central or SouthCentral Florida. A few hint at more turn north but they minority. Intensity somewhere from Cat 2 to Cat 4. Timing now late Sun Night into Monday morning.

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I’m gonna turn my focus back to opening weekend of football.

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YES! And as much as I dislike TWCs awfulizing, I'll switch to it during some of the commercials. Then at half time, back here to see what is really happening.

Happy viewing; we need a distraction from what is going on.

Not a guru but the latest European model shows it taking a hard right when it gets in Florida and going north over land through Florida, into Georgia and up the east coast. The GFS is more or less in alignment.