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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 9/7/19 at 3:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/7/19 at 3:09 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
They all more or less missed on Dorian's slow down which allowed different steering features to become involved. That was the problem that the models struggled to resolve as they were initially operating with Dorian being a faster moving storm early on. Levi mentioned a couple of times that the slow down allowed that trough to come across the country and sink south. When models first picked up on Dorian that trough wasn't even a factor.
The from the center reform in the Caribbean they were playing catch up and took them a while to "catch up" to the slowdown.
They had all pretty much picked up on a stall, just had Dorian too fast and too far west.
The medium range is still progressing for modeling and prediction and Dorian has things to learn em. The short range (1-3 days) ended up being very good, except for early on. Might be a resolution problem for the globals because it has really seemed the skill decreases with weaker and especially smaller weak systems.
2
Posted on 9/7/19 at 3:23 pm to Duke
Right. I should have clarified that struggle was with long term and primarily early. The short term models weren't that far off. They nailed the general area of the stall over the northern Bahamas, and the difference or "miss" on the stall wouldn't be talked about if the storm hadn't been one that skirted the east coast and kept everyone guessing if it would make a landfall in FL. It was going to be catastrophic for the Bahamas no matter where exactly that stall happened (relative to the track).
I still believe that the most important data gathered from Dorian will involve the EWRC that happened prior to the stall. Being that it happened so close to radars, had plenty of planes in and out of the storm, and stalled where it did, this may very well be a groundbreaking storm in regards to understanding EWRCs.
I still believe that the most important data gathered from Dorian will involve the EWRC that happened prior to the stall. Being that it happened so close to radars, had plenty of planes in and out of the storm, and stalled where it did, this may very well be a groundbreaking storm in regards to understanding EWRCs.
Posted on 9/7/19 at 3:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
This is one of the most unusual Hurricane tracks that I have ever seen.
Posted on 9/7/19 at 4:04 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
I still believe that the most important data gathered from Dorian will involve the EWRC that happened prior to the stall. Being that it happened so close to radars, had plenty of planes in and out of the storm, and stalled where it did, this may very well be a groundbreaking storm in regards to understanding EWRCs
PhDs will happen off that info no doubt and the lack of ERC before the stall too.
Posted on 9/7/19 at 4:40 pm to Kramer26
I mean it’s similar to whatever that storm was a couple years ago that had Floridians on suicide watch for a bit (was that Irma)
Posted on 9/12/19 at 3:42 pm to Chad504boy
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