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Message

re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:58 am to
Posted by Motorboat
At the camp
Member since Oct 2007
23899 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:58 am to
frick that. I'm going to Pensacola no matter.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129075 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:59 am to
NHC obviously isnt buying the old icon
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 10:59 am to
quote:

Last frame for 12Z Icon


Looking at the 500 heights and I think that would turn north toward Mobile if it kept running out.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127761 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:00 am to
quote:

frick that. I'm going to Pensacola no matter.


Well I'm going out of the country on a plane. I don't want to be stuck in another country and not able to fly back.

No, I'm not downplaying the massive destruction this storm may do so don't downvote away.

I'm very concerned about that. I can't deal with another damn Katrina.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 11:02 am
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:04 am to
12z GFS coming more in line with Euro so far.
Posted by Tchefuncte Tiger
Bat'n Rudge
Member since Oct 2004
62544 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:04 am to
Looks like my trip to Destin next week may be shot.
Posted by Motorboat
At the camp
Member since Oct 2007
23899 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Well I'm going out of the country on a plane. I don't want to be stuck in another country and not able to fly back.


Go man. you can always fly back into another airport. I thought you were the poster going to OB.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127761 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:06 am to
quote:

12z GFS coming more in line with Euro so far.


Meaning...what?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:06 am to
quote:

Looks like my trip to Destin next week may be shot.


I wouldn't change plans because of one model run.
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
44144 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:07 am to
quote:

Meaning...what?


You guys are fine. The east coast needs to start worrying.

Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:08 am to
quote:

Meaning...what?


It has been wanting it to get north toward the Carolinas. It's now following a path more like the NHC path and pushing to have it go in by the Space Coast.
Posted by ForeverLSU02
Albany
Member since Jun 2007
52499 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:09 am to
quote:

what the fresh hell is this shite?
I just see titties
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:10 am to
Tropical Tidbits going slow for anyone else? Looks like they have a lot of traffic on the site.
Posted by Tchefuncte Tiger
Bat'n Rudge
Member since Oct 2004
62544 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:10 am to
quote:

I wouldn't change plans because of one model run.



I'm not, but the earlier NHC diagram had the storm going more towards Jacksonville/South Georgia and away from the GoM. Now it looks like it may make it in to the Gulf, but this will change 50 times in the next 24 hours. Who knows?
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
44144 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:11 am to
quote:

Tropical Tidbits going slow for anyone else? Looks like they have a lot of traffic on the site.


Yup. It's because the 12Z GFS is running right now.

Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52352 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:15 am to
Question for the storm gurus:

Could the low pressure system in the Atlantic (CLP5) push Dorian further South on the approach to Fl?
Posted by EveryoneGetsATrophy
Member since Nov 2017
2907 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:15 am to
quote:

Tropical Tidbits going slow for anyone else? Looks like they have a lot of traffic on the site.


Probably some type of tropical activity.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:17 am to
quote:

but the earlier NHC diagram had the storm going more towards Jacksonville/South Georgia and away from the GoM. Now it looks like it may make it in to the Gulf, but this will change 50 times in the next 24 hours. Who knows?



Ignore the center line or trends in the cone for now. The window is basically between the OBX and the mouth of the Mississippi with the most likely seeming Space Coast, enters gulf near Tampa and turns into the Panhandle somewhere.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:20 am to
quote:

Could the low pressure system in the Atlantic (CLP5) push Dorian further South on the approach to Fl?




Flow around it being counter clockwise would have it rotate N and then W around it, aligning it with the west push from the building high to it's north.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Starting to resemble Katrina’s path



Idiot







More of an Andrew track

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