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Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:02 am to slackster
quote:
Apparently we have Martinique to blame for this.
Is that the moron on the poli board who made the thread about hurricane season being almost over and we haven’t had a major storm?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:08 am to hubertcumberdale
Looking at the projected path graphs posted, is there a way to tell the time frame? For example, on Saturday it is expected to be here and so forth? Thanks.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:10 am to Janky
The numbers at each point are hours.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:13 am to Janky
quote:
Looking at the projected path graphs posted, is there a way to tell the time frame? For example, on Saturday it is expected to be here and so forth? Thanks.
I don't mean to sound like a smartass, but do you see the black dots on the path with the dates?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:15 am to slackster
quote:
Apparently we have Martinique to blame for this.
It's hard to pin it down to one thing but Dorian had an elongated LLC yesterday morning as it moved into the Islands. Strong convection on the northern side of the system allowed it to maintain a vigorous MLC. Basically all models had the system struggling to consolidate the LLC and trapped in the lower level flow. Deep convection associated with the MLC allowed the system to consolidate the LLC farther north, which no models showed.
You can see the "jump" north yesterday morning and the consensus blend struggling to adjust to the changes.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:18 am to slackster
I was talking about this chart.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:30 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I doubt it tbh.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:36 am to slackster
quote:My man..
slackster
I have a beach wedding to be at on Sunday(6:30pm) in Key West. I’m leaving Thursday night to drive to Fort Lauderdale to stay with a friend and then early Friday morning driving the rest of the way to the Keys.
1. Will Saturday and Sunday be a shite show as far as rain?
2. Will I be stuck in shite weather on the drive back? I’m heading back Monday.
TIA
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 8:40 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:37 am to Janky
quote:
was talking about this chart.
, gotcha. Can you see the dots and hours in black on each track? That's 24/48/72/96/120 hours out from 6:00 UTC on 8/28. 
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:38 am to slackster
Oh, ok. That makes sense. Thanks.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:40 am to rds dc
quote:
You can see the "jump" north yesterday morning and the consensus blend struggling to adjust to the changes.
Yeah, model verification with Dorian has been exceptionally poor, but it was a sloppy system which I know increases errors.
These misses at 24 hours are well outside of the normal errors of late.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:45 am to Janky
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/9/20 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:47 am to threeputt
Hi.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:48 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Will Saturday and Sunday be a shite show as far as rain?
In Key West? Nothing crazy as far as rain is projected, but probably rain off and on beginning Saturday evening.
quote:
2. Will I be stuck in shite weather on the drive back? I’m heading back Monday.
Euro has it crossing through Tampa and emerging in the GOM by 1PM Monday. I'm not sure how much that helps. In all likelihood you'll be driving through hurricane damaged parts of FL by Monday.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 8:49 am to rds dc
quote:
You can see the "jump" north yesterday morning and the consensus blend struggling to adjust to the changes.
So that would be a good thing for those of us along the gulf coast? As far as potential for later impact from Dorian?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:04 am to LSUfanNkaty
quote:
quote:
You can see the "jump" north yesterday morning and the consensus blend struggling to adjust to the changes.
So that would be a good thing for those of us along the gulf coast? As far as potential for later impact from Dorian?
Can't really say, depends on how fast and strong the ridge builds in over the top.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:04 am to LSUfanNkaty
Looks like Dorian's is moving more North-Northwest on the last couple of radar frames.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:07 am to mightynine
06Z Euro Ensemble
That bend to the west will make GOM'ers nervous
That bend to the west will make GOM'ers nervous
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 9:09 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:08 am to slackster
Thanks my man.
That doesn’t seem too bad. I wanted to make sure I wasn’t going to get stuck somewhere on the way back.
That doesn’t seem too bad. I wanted to make sure I wasn’t going to get stuck somewhere on the way back.
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