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How is Vegas so good at predicting the lines on games?
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:45 am
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:45 am
I know it's formula's and stats. But do you think they have an inside to all these big games and honestly think they might rig a game.
21
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:46 am to Good Baw
The line moves. It's simply a statistics play. They win no matter what because of the juice.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:47 am to Good Baw
quote:
How is Vegas so good at predicting the lines on games?
when the outcome of doing your job is either success or being fitted for a concrete overcoat you'd get pretty good at it too
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:48 am to Good Baw
Algorithms
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:50 am to NPComb
quote:
They win no matter what because of the juice.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:51 am to Good Baw
quote:
How is Vegas so good at predicting the lines on games?
I know it's formula's and stats.
or maybe its because the refs work for them and make sure, with those phantom penalty calls, teams dont screw them over the spreads
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:51 am to Good Baw
quote:
How is Vegas so good at predicting the lines on games?
The line isn’t as much about predicting the outcome of the game as it is about getting roughly the same number of people on each side of the bet.
This post was edited on 2/20/23 at 11:52 am
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:53 am to Darth_Vader
It's all in the wrist.
This post was edited on 2/20/23 at 11:56 am
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:54 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
The line isn’t as much about predicting the outcome of the game as it is about getting roughly the same number of people on each side of the bet.
This. They move the line based on where the money is coming in to make it as close to 50/50 on each side as possible.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:55 am to Good Baw
quote:
know it's formula's and stats. But do you think they have an inside to all these big games and honestly think they might rig a game.
It’s not only big games. They are good on small time college basketball games, too. They are really good.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 11:57 am to go ta hell ole miss
And we only bring this up when they get one right. We don’t talk about it when they miss one by 20+ points like LSU/Ole Miss or the point total in the Super Bowl.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:05 pm to Good Baw
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:05 pm to Good Baw
- vig
- pretty transparent market (can copy sharp books)
- relatively normally distributed outcomes
- vig
- pretty transparent market (can copy sharp books)
- relatively normally distributed outcomes
- vig
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:06 pm to NPComb
quote:
They win no matter what because of the juice.
Not always, but usually
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:10 pm to Good Baw
It’s essentially a combination of the thoughts of every person betting on the game, so millions of brains involved versus some Vegas guy just magically picking a number.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:11 pm to Seeing Grey
quote:
- vig
- pretty transparent market (can copy sharp books)
- relatively normally distributed outcomes
- vig
Please explain to me what a vig has to do with Vegas and putting out lines?
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:12 pm to Good Baw
It's all rigged Bro
The NFL pre determines the games and scores then sends the info to Vegas.
Everyone gets paid
except you
The NFL pre determines the games and scores then sends the info to Vegas.
Everyone gets paid
except you
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:14 pm to Good Baw
They have teams of statisticians and data scientists who work for them.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:16 pm to SouthEndzoneTiger
quote:
Please explain to me what a vig has to do with Vegas and putting out lines?
On average you pay -110 when you lose, get paid 100 when you win. To break even you have to win 52.4% of your bets. Sounds small, but adds up.
Posted on 2/20/23 at 12:19 pm to bigberg2000
quote:
They move the line based on where the money is coming in to make it as close to 50/50 on each side as possible.
Not sure about that. They would be leaving a lot of money on the table if that were true.
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