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Message

re: How imminent is a housing crisis in this country?

Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:07 pm to
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
45561 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

Inventory is still low because anyone in a sub 4% mortgage isn't leaving.


There are also a lot of empty houses not up for sale on my street. I lived in my house for 22 years, most of my neigbors are elderly.

- A house three doors down. A couple lived there prior to us moving in, he retired on a Monday, she died that Friday. He went back to work for a few years then had a stroke. Even though he is in a facility, the house hasn't gone up for sale because, because half would go to her children from previous marriage, the other half to pay for the facility he is currently in.
No one has been in it for almost 2 years.

-House across the street, wife died about 15 years ago. Man lived with granddaughter and girlfriend. Granddaughter moved out of state, ambulance came and got him about 8 months ago. Never made it out of hospital, died 6 months ago. Had a reverse mortgage, house has been sitting empty for six months.

-House 5 doors down. Elderly doctor and his wife, both with health issues. Had someone live with them for a few years. Wife passed, few months later he went to hospice, no one has been in the house for over 18 months. Family came and removed everything last Christmas, power is still on.

Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
49553 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

It'd also be a whole lot cooler if we didn't have current political actors over-react to the COVID telework policies.



It makes me wonder how much money these people have tied up in commercial real estate.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
28038 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

You think every fresh out of school 22 year old has every possible expense imaginable and are looking for a giant house or a fancy apartment downtown in a big city


First off.
Why are you referencing fresh out of school 22 year olds?
We are all (99%) born poor. Naked. We dont own anything (our parents do).
When we are fresh out of school, we have negative net wealth. 22 years old and we dont own anything.

Why is your inclination to start with 22 year olds?
At 22, I had 2 roommates. I had a car loan and a small student loan.
My priority at 22 was to pay off my debts.

quote:

Most are saving every penny they can just like you did but the market is profoundly grim for them

I wasn't saving anything. I was trying to get net wealth to $0. As fast as possible.

Secondly, we are currently in a housing bubble. This isn't the first housing bubble. It won't be the last.
Life is hard. It always has been hard.
Housing bubbles make home ownership harder.

There is a decent probability that this bubble will burst. High interest rates are one thing. If unemployment creeps and we enter into a recession, you will get more affordable housing. But kids just out of college (22 year olds) will be more worried about gainful employment.
Recessions and housing bubbles are awful.
But they reset the opportunity for young people to buy houses after the bottom hits.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
28038 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:15 pm to
That's weird.
It sounds like probate is still backed up from covid
Posted by theCrusher
Slidell
Member since Nov 2007
1863 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

the price of labor, materials and the contractor margin and the price of land are much higher now. you need a good job, great savings and a commidttment to own these days. i feel sorry for the young people as the american dream is now really tough. but it can be done.


I would add

I think there are several factors that make life more challenging for younger generations today:

The rapid evolution of technology. Technology is reshaping the economy and entire industries at an incredible pace. Keeping up and navigating these changes requires a level of continuous learning and adaptability that can be difficult for anyone to manage.

The pressure to earn a college degree. Society has pushed college as the primary path to success, often without adequately considering the cost. Student loan payments can rival a mortgage payment, leaving young people financially burdened before they even get started.

The decline of skilled manufacturing jobs. Many of the traditional jobs that once provided stable careers, good wages, and opportunities for people without college degrees have disappeared or become less accessible.

The growth of the low-paying, low-skilled service economy. More people are working in jobs that offer limited upward mobility and can often be automated, outsourced, or easily replaced.

Consumerism and constant marketing. Today's young people are bombarded with advertising and endless opportunities to spend money. As a Gen Xer, I grew up with television and radio as the primary advertising channels. Today, marketing follows people everywhere, creating constant pressure to buy, upgrade, and keep up with everyone else.

I believe it's more difficult for young people to navigate today's world, but I also believe there has never been more opportunity for someone to build wealth and create something of their own.

The old model of finding a good company, staying there for 30 years, and retiring with a pension is largely gone. Technology has changed the rules, and the traditional career path is no longer a reliable guarantee of financial security.

Success today requires an entrepreneurial mindset. That doesn't necessarily mean starting a business. It means taking ownership of your future, continuously developing valuable skills, recognizing opportunities, adapting to change, and understanding how to create value rather than simply trading your time for a paycheck.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
16004 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

That's weird.
It sounds like probate is still backed up from covid


probate in general...without a will...in Louisiana is incredibly slow and dumb (look it up)...but I know in other areas I've lived (Alaska), it is also incredibly dumb and slow as well...but for different reasons.

Plus, in general, most people can't afford a probate lawyer with the proceeds that their family is leaving behind (at least in the scenarios I've been in)
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
16004 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

Secondly, we are currently in a housing bubble. This isn't the first housing bubble. It won't be the last.
Life is hard. It always has been hard.
Housing bubbles make home ownership harder.


lot more bubbles going on that are going to make the housing bubble infinitely worse.
Posted by Buryl
Member since Sep 2016
1124 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

Let me guess: Flood zone X? Higher demand for that flood zone is tearing up that part of the market. The next thing that is going to frick us is the way appraisals will be done. Insurance companies want them to assess risk in it now. So if your AC and roof are 15 years old your value is going to be lower


Yep zone x. House is about 1,000 square feet and zero insulation lol.
Posted by Butch Baum
Member since Oct 2007
3686 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

frick me. I haven't checked mortgage rates in a while and thought you were being sarcastic so I had to check. Current market is nuts.


Ugly rates! Ha! Go luck at late 70’s early 80’s
Posted by Tampa Ray
Member since Oct 2026
181 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:21 pm to
People freaked out like this prior to the housing crash 20 years ago.
But when housing crashed most people didn't want to buy.

Just like with the Stock Market.
Everyone has FOMO and wants to buy at the top,
But when the market crashes nobody wants to buy.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 4:24 pm
Posted by Tampa Ray
Member since Oct 2026
181 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:21 pm to
.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 4:22 pm
Posted by Raging Tiger
Teedy Town
Member since Jun 2023
1671 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:23 pm to
No one can afford to buy unless they are mid 40’ or older (or have help from parents) and well established.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
16004 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

But when the market crashes nobody wants to buy.



well because most people have other things to focus on when the market crashes that badly. Like finding jobs and in general just surviving. But that's alright, this next time, the AI/robots/cyborgs won't mind the crash and then only the folks at the top of the food chain will be able to buy stocks cheap
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
79211 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

Success today requires an entrepreneurial mindset. That doesn't necessarily mean starting a business. It means taking ownership of your future, continuously developing valuable skills, recognizing opportunities, adapting to change, and understanding how to create value rather than simply trading your time for a paycheck.


This was the case 20 years ago.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
16004 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

It means taking ownership of your future,


I mean hate to break it to folks but most people in there early 20s don't really think there is going to be much of a future

Thus why you see younger folks doing the things they are doing right now
Posted by Tampa Ray
Member since Oct 2026
181 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

I mean hate to break it to folks but most people in there early 20s don't really think there is going to be much of a future


People in their 20's are spoiled stupid.
These retards whine about returning to the office.

Imagine them being drafted during Vietnam, WWI, WWII.
Imagine them living through The Depression.

Bunch of pussies.
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 5:09 pm
Posted by Dragula
Laguna Seca
Member since Jun 2020
7113 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 5:14 pm to
I'm sure this 13page thread is full of posters yelling for Boomers to quit being selfish and o sell their house for $25K...
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
38595 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

Imagine them being drafted during Vietnam, WWI, WWII. Imagine them living through The Depression.

Bunch of pussies.


The people bitching about young people lived through the most prosperous time in this country’s history
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
143276 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 6:19 pm to
quote:

People in their 20's are spoiled stupid.


This is why China and Japan, and Russia to a lesser extent are passing us quickly in education, and it will start showing up more prevalent soon.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
16004 posts
Posted on 10/21/26 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

Japan


Won't exist if they dont get their birthrates up

Speaking of which, idk why you boomers havent watched idiocracy yet and still havent recognized the signs in todays world that mimic it. You know thaat its probably reaallllllly important to prioritize good family laws/programs that truly help new parents with all that power and wealth yall have in Congress

Nah lets just give it to the poors so THEY can multiply like rabbits
This post was edited on 10/21/26 at 6:54 pm
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