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House prices drop from $480k to $437k from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:10 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:10 pm
It appears the market is reacting to the high interest rates and asking prices. This is the average home price sold in the US. That's a near 10% drop in just 1 quarter. Crazy. I'd personally maybe hold out 1 more year and then sweep up if I were looking now. If I had to guess where it will drop to, I'd hold a pencil or ruler that follows that trendline, and see when it'd cross that on the last quarter downslope extrapolated. The line follows a general trend. It has ups and downs, but seems to always follow that general trendline. I feel there's going to be a significant drop pretty quickly.
The historic price trendline and the recent last quarter downward trendline, intersect around $370k. If it's at $437k today, that's a $67 decrease. This is a 15% drop at current prices. To those that think it's going up still because they own a house and believe it will go up just because they want it to go up. Good luck, but smart investing is always better than wanting something to happen investing.
This is a follow up post to other post that showed how applications to buy houses are at lowest point and leasing is cheaper than buying now. That data on that post ended Oct 2022, so this is just showing 1 quarter later.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
The historic price trendline and the recent last quarter downward trendline, intersect around $370k. If it's at $437k today, that's a $67 decrease. This is a 15% drop at current prices. To those that think it's going up still because they own a house and believe it will go up just because they want it to go up. Good luck, but smart investing is always better than wanting something to happen investing.
This is a follow up post to other post that showed how applications to buy houses are at lowest point and leasing is cheaper than buying now. That data on that post ended Oct 2022, so this is just showing 1 quarter later.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 1:48 am
24
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:10 pm to Saunson69
Good
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:15 pm to Saunson69
I'm sure St. Tammany parish will reappraise my taxable home value to account for the drop in taxes like they did a few years ago in order to raise them.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:16 pm to Saunson69
I’m guessing bidding 10% over list prices ain’t in style anymore?
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:21 pm to Saunson69
But Redfin is telling me my house is worth $100K more!!
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:22 pm to Saunson69
Prices have only gone up in my area of Rhode Island, been looking for almost a year now and it's been awful!
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:23 pm to PeteRose
I love my place but at times i wish I had unloaded all of it in '22 and moved into a dump of an apartment for 2 or 3 years.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:24 pm to Saunson69
We’re still several years away from adequate inventory. Home prices/values more than likely won’t be rising exponentially like they have been doing the past couple of years. More than likely we are going to see a stabilization, if you will, and somewhere around 2-4% appreciation rates, maybe 4-7% in hotter markets.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:30 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
We’re still several years away from adequate inventory. Home prices/values more than likely won’t be rising exponentially like they have been doing the past couple of years. More than likely we are going to see a stabilization, if you will, and somewhere around 2-4% appreciation rates, maybe 4-7% in hotter markets.
Dude, I don't think you understand the severity of this. It dropped 9% in 1 quarter. That's -36% extrapolated over 1 year. I don't think it will drop that much, but I'm very confident that it will drop over the next 1 to 2 years to get in trend with the general slope of that line. I predict another -15% drop on current prices until it gets in trend with that line. It definitely won't appreciate until this gets straightened out in like a year or 2.
This post was edited on 5/25/23 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:32 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
But Redfin is telling me my house is worth $100K more!!
This is actual data of houses sold, not projections or forecasts like Redfin. Maybe you live in like NYC, California, or a blue state, but if you're in the South outside of Austin, TX, it likely isn't.
This post was edited on 5/25/23 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:36 pm to Saunson69
quote:
That's -36% extrapolated over 1 year.
*32%
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:41 pm to castorinho
Yea I guess if you applied 91%^4 power. Not sure how it'd work here, the math.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:45 pm to PeteRose
quote:
I’m guessing bidding 10% over list prices ain’t in style anymore?
Depends where you are living.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 8:59 pm to Saunson69
Biden economic plan is working
Posted on 5/25/23 at 9:01 pm to Saunson69
Posted on 5/25/23 at 9:03 pm to Saunson69
It needs to happen although it won't particularly help me.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 9:05 pm to Saunson69
Housing market is headed for a crash.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 9:05 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
We’re still several years away from adequate inventory.
quote:
Paul Allen
You must have this sentence saved as a keyboard shortcut on your phone.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 9:11 pm to Saunson69
Sounds like homeowners are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
I ain’t selling. I can’t sell. I’ve got 30 beehives behind it. I ain’t going through moving and moving beehives. You can kiss my black arse.
I ain’t selling. I can’t sell. I’ve got 30 beehives behind it. I ain’t going through moving and moving beehives. You can kiss my black arse.
Posted on 5/25/23 at 9:11 pm to Saunson69
Needs to drop to pre 2020 levels
Realtors are gonna fight to the death for that not to happen
Realtors are gonna fight to the death for that not to happen
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