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re: Hot take on Germany’s invasion of the USSR

Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:23 pm to
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39872 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

What good are brand new tanks and trucks without fuel to have them run? Everything in Russia would be done with horse and buggy. It would’ve crippled them, and it’s part of the reason why Japan felt the need for imperialism expansion. I’ll keep entertaining you then.


Assuming the German army can cut off or even seize the oil supply lines entirely, the Soviets still have the “second Baku”, lend-lease, and the massive strategic reserves they established and maintained specifically in case Germany was able to cut them off from the Caucasus.

It’s not as simple as you think. Now they would’ve had to maintain that corridor while the Soviets have entire army groups that haven’t been destroyed in the north and center can counter-attack.
Posted by HarryBalzack
Member since Oct 2012
16299 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Any other way for him to perpetuate a war with us?
Yes. They wouldn't have to do it militarily to cause significant harm.

Assume that Britain falls and all her territories go with her. Japan faces no opposition to creating their East Asian Coprosperity Sphere. The gray areas are the only places left for trade with the US. Mexico and the Congo wouldn't be buying too many Fords, Chevys, refrigerators, etc. And the banks would collapse when the European allies defaulted upon defeat.



Here's the amount of trade that was happening between those areas and the US in 1939. Couldn't find a better graphic in the short time I went searching.



No, they wouldn't have been able to sack us militarily, but they certainly could have propagated an economic campaign against us (using your assumption that they be left free to conquer Europe and the Japanese take Asia) that could have virtually destroyed us, financially.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39872 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

Not indefinitely.


I agree. I’m just explaining that whether you start the war with 300 u-boats or get Bismarck operating with other ships out of France as a formidable raiding force, the allies still defeat them. The Germans just happened to be really unlucky with Bismarck having its rudder jammed.
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
35897 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:28 pm to
The better hypo is if Hitler doesn’t move until the mid 40’s after he had his own carrier groups, along with dozens more capital ships and a couple hundred additional U Boats. Now that’s a problem for the Brits.
This post was edited on 2/23/25 at 3:29 pm
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
6813 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

Bismarck was not easily dispatched by any means
I exaggerated, you’re right. The Bismarck was extremely formidable even as she was taking fire. It would be like if the Iowa and the Yamato were 1v1 with no aircraft involved. A juggernaut for sure.
quote:

The battleships and cruisers threatened not only the commerce but the royal navy itself

Then why do you think Hitler hid the rest of the fleet in Norway after the Bismarck went down? I think they went out one other time to harass a shipping convoy to Archangel.
quote:

The destruction of the surface fleet was paramount because they knew that without a surface threat they could focus on escorts to defeat the u-boat threat.
’41 is before everyone knew what a game changer aircraft carriers would be but it seems like the Brits would’ve deployed carriers in the channel to combat the Germany’s surface fleet. The threat of those UBoats kept them at bay for the most part imo
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
39350 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

They would still have been bottled up in the Med, awaiting slow depreciation from the air.


What air? In 1940 the Brits were hanging by a thread. If Germany takes the French Navy almost wholly intact (and much of the French Navy was stationed in southern France and French Morocco, they're not getting touched by the RAF. Hell, at that point, the Germans could have taken Gibralter by force.
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
6813 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:02 pm to
quote:

agree. I’m just explaining that whether you start the war with 300 u-boats or get Bismarck operating with other ships out of France as a formidable raiding force, the allies still defeat them. The Germans just happened to be really unlucky with Bismarck having its rudder jammed.

This is where we disagree. The Germans had a large window until 1943 where the UBoats were formidable and feared across the Atlantic all the way to the US. They sent millions of tons of shipping down to the bottom on top of cargo ships, oil tankers and men. Britain was under severe rationing and they barely had enough fuel for their airplanes to fight against Germany. If the Germans had more UBoats to start the war, they could’ve tightened the noose around Britain like they did to Leningrad until Britain came to the negotiating table with Germany.
On top of that, more UBoats would have all but eliminated those valuable convoys needed for the Soviets to resist the Germans. It mattered way more to the Soviets in those dire days of 1941 than in say 1943. Read The Battle of the Atlantic, and you’ll understand how much the USSR was being kept afloat. It could’ve brought the Soviets to the negotiating table as well. I doubt it, but who knows?

Yes, the US may have defeated them later, but the numerical superiority of UBoats to start the war definitely would’ve made a difference.

Even without the Bismarck’s rudder getting jammed, the ship still took a beating and was far away from the ports in France. 1. There would’ve been lengthy repairs on her in dock if she made it or 2. There’s a chance she still would’ve gone down. There were 10+ British ships, an aircraft carrier, and a polish warship in the vicinity. Hits were reducing her speed making torpedo targets from British warships easier and easier.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
23021 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

Even hotter take, we should not have involved ourselves in the European theater of either World War.


We wouldn't have been able to dominate the world as we did after WWII.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39872 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:20 pm to
Yes but you’re assuming that the British wouldn’t have been actively readying to counter the u-boat threat. They signed the 1935 agreement allowing Germany to have a navy 35% the size of the RN. If MI6 and aerial recon is showing that Germany isn’t building a surface fleet but is still using up the resources, they’ll know where that’s going and begin preparing for a much more substantial submarine threat. The British had to respect the German surface fleet, even when holed up in Norway, tying up capital ships and carriers. Part of the u-boat effectiveness early on is partially because the British were hyper-fixated on countering the German commerce raiders. Far more resources would’ve gone into the escorts if there was no surface threat.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
57778 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:22 pm to
quote:

First time a far right political party has this much support in Germany since the Nazi party.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
57778 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

He sure could have used all those planes and pilots he lost in the battle of Britain.


They went away from hitting the radar sites, giving England the upper hand.

Germany could well have won if not for a litany of errors caused by hubris and ideological thinking versus sound military tactics.

For instance, they didn't need Stalingrad. They only needed to close traffic on the Volga which would impede fuel supplies for the Soviets. Envelope the city and leave it to starve is the proper tactic, yet Hitler wanted it solely due to the name. Lost an entire army with this folly.
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
6813 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

they’ll know where that’s going and begin preparing for a much more substantial submarine threat
I’m not so sure. The British parliament and even Churchill staunchly downplayed the UBoat threat and didn’t think the UBoats posed a serious problem until it got to the point where wolfpacks were taking out almost half of all convoys headed to Britain or Russia.
quote:

The British had to respect the German surface fleet, even when holed up in Norway, tying up capital ships and carriers
sounds like the Germans were just as scared of the British surface fleet even though Britain was stretched far too thin with ships in the Far East and the Mediterranean. Churchill was begging FDR to send more warships, but all FDR sent were old destroyers. I guess we can agree it was a mutual respect.
quote:

Part of the u-boat effectiveness early on is partially because the British were hyper-fixated on countering the German commerce raiders. Far more resources would’ve gone into the escorts if there was no surface threat.
and like I said before they lacked the strategy of air cover and sonar for destroyer escorts that turned the tide in the Atlantic in 1943. Churchill hated to use escorts early in the war because that was one less ship that could be deployed in the Mediterranean. They were stretched too thin. Germany had her chance with the UBoat but blew it.

Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
57778 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

I agree. I’m just explaining that whether you start the war with 300 u-boats or get Bismarck operating with other ships out of France as a formidable raiding force, the allies still defeat them. The Germans just happened to be really unlucky with Bismarck having its rudder jammed.


The Germans were never going to build enough battleships and such to compete with Britain. Building one was a waste, let alone three.

Aircraft carriers would have been a different story, as seen throughout the war. Battleships were old tech.

More subs to start the war with would have made a notable difference. Prior to US involvement, Britain would have starved out with hundreds more UBoats in the Atlantic.
Posted by grizzlylongcut
Member since Sep 2021
14515 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:04 pm to
quote:

We wouldn't have been able to dominate the world as we did after WWII.


I’m less worried about dominating the world as I am about keeping our government from dominating us.
Posted by antibarner
Member since Oct 2009
26165 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:07 pm to
Here's you a very plausible What If?..Operation Valkyrie..had been successful?

Hitler killed.in July 1944. What happens then?
Posted by biglego
San Francisco
Member since Nov 2007
83294 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:09 pm to
quote:

The AfD came in a strong second in the snap elections today. First time a far right political party has this much support in Germany since the Nazi party.

The AfD is only far right by retard left standards, and that it only came in 2nd tells us that Germany is truly in a bad state.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39872 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:43 pm to
quote:

I’m not so sure. The British parliament and even Churchill staunchly downplayed the UBoat threat and didn’t think the UBoats posed a serious problem until it got to the point where wolfpacks were taking out almost half of all convoys headed to Britain or Russia.


That’s precisely what I’m saying. It was downplayed because they were so much more concerned about a potential fleet in being that could gain local superiority, because, like you said, the Brits were stretched too thin across three basins.

quote:

sounds like the Germans were just as scared of the British surface fleet even though Britain was stretched far too thin with ships in the Far East and the Mediterranean. Churchill was begging FDR to send more warships, but all FDR sent were old destroyers. I guess we can agree it was a mutual respect.


Of course the Germans were terrified of the Royal Navy. They didn’t want to lose their battleships and lose the fleet-in-being. Once Bismarck, Graf Spee, Gneiseanu, and Scharnhorst were lost there was no longer a surface threat and the allies capitalized on it and subsequently destroyed the U-Boat fleet by being able to concentrate on ASW tactics and technology.

quote:

and like I said before they lacked the strategy of air cover and sonar for destroyer escorts that turned the tide in the Atlantic in 1943. Churchill hated to use escorts early in the war because that was one less ship that could be deployed in the Mediterranean. They were stretched too thin. Germany had her chance with the UBoat but blew it.


Which is why I brought up naval build strategy. These are at least decade-long commitments that these nations make when they decide naval strategy and there was enough intelligence between the nations whether it be through espionage or open sources that alerted one another to that build strategy. If the British knew that Germany wasn’t building capital ships (which would have been easy to discern) it would’ve been clear that the resources were going elsewhere. I can guarantee you that no one would have been downplaying the U-boat threat if Germany was sitting on over 200 by 1939.

Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
39872 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

The Germans were never going to build enough battleships and such to compete with Britain. Building one was a waste, let alone three.


And they knew this. Which is why they were designed to run away from British capital ships. I understand that Dönitz was right in terms of what Germany was capable of and what gave them the best shot of capitulating Britain early on, but the hypothetical build strategy would’ve led to the German navy folding even quicker once ASW tech and tactics caught up.

Convoy PQ-17 clearly shows what the threat of the capital ships did to the British. They thought Tirpitz was sortied to intercept the convoy and they ordered them to scatter. The merchants were left unprotected and U-boats sank 24 of the 35 ships of the convoy. The threat of surface action allowed the U-boats to operate freely until that surface threat was completely removed from equation.

quote:

Aircraft carriers would have been a different story, as seen throughout the war. Battleships were old tech.


Of course, but Germany had no experience with naval aviation and the Luftwaffe was never going to assist with developing it.

quote:

More subs to start the war with would have made a notable difference. Prior to US involvement, Britain would have starved out with hundreds more UBoats in the Atlantic.


I agree with this. With how Britain prepared for the war, this scenario would have been very successful. But the British strategy was already dependent on the fact that the Germans did in fact build large surface combatants.

Chicken & egg scenario.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:54 pm to
quote:

Hitler was an arrogant idiot and didn't prioritize Moscow at the onset.


Napoleon took Moscow and still lost
Posted by OweO
Plaquemine, La
Member since Sep 2009
120437 posts
Posted on 2/23/25 at 6:55 pm to
quote:

This is long so don’t read if you aren’t interested.



I am glad you gave people permission not to read it.. And this isn't long, I have post thats much longer than this and its nothing but bullshite.. At least this has something worth discussing.
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