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re: Here's why the country is freaking out and under virtual lock down - mathematical reason
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:02 am to Pettifogger
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:02 am to Pettifogger
quote:That is 100% where I am
"man, I know this is dangerous but I'm just not sure all of this is going to help or is really needed. I don't know for sure, but it seems kind of reactionary."
In no way do I "know" though
0
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:04 am to Slimeball
quote:
What would it take to convince you that this is a real problem?
Everyone agrees this is a"a real problem". The question is what are the appropriate steps to take? Is shutting down our economy worth saving x number of lives that were going to pass within the next three or four years anyway? Now, don't be outraged by that question. It IS a question we will answer in the negative at some point.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:04 am to Pettifogger
quote:
But I am baffled by those who are absolutely convinced they're correct, and frustrated by those who continue to use inapplicable/bad info to make arguments on that basis.
Plenty of these on both sides of the freak out or not freak out fence, and I definitely agree with you that it's baffling.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:04 am to stout
quote:
Why did you leave out countries where the rate is slowing down?
It's easy to drop the numbers when you force everyone to stay locked in their home.
I can't wrap my head around the logic of some people. You can't use the declining numbers of China to justify keeping the status quo in the US. It doesn't fricking work like that.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:04 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
I am not a genie, but honestly, if a genie could tell me these current measures saved 20,000 lives I would say we went way overboard
So cancelling the Houston Rodeo and not letting a few hundred thousand fans watch basketball games, etc. isn't worth 20k lives?
I'm not trying to shame you, I get it. There is a cost to this stuff and people are going to weigh it differently based on whether or not those who would have died were clinging to life or were vibrant folks with good prognosis otherwise.
I find it hard to say what we've done to date isn't worth saving 20k lives, though. I accept the argument, I just disagree.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:04 am to stout
A better comparison is to look at the rate of change at the same time frame the IS is in now. It always slows down eventually, the question is the shape of the curve. That is what creates the issue. A rapid in crease will likely be followed by a rapid decrease but also a higher mortality rate, some of which would be attributable to an overwhelmed medical delivery system.
But hey continue with the “it’s no big deal”. Hopefully you don’t have any elderly relatives.
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But hey continue with the “it’s no big deal”. Hopefully you don’t have any elderly relatives.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:05 am to Salmon
quote:Not at all
I don't even know if I agree with it
but then again, I'm not an expert on these things, so
maybe you are?
And this may sound idiotic, but I would rather not go overboard and have it possibly be worse than it should have been, then have everyone just be ok with "better safe than sorry"
I just think thats a terrible precedent we have taken. Maybe that sounds idiotic to some, but I think that is a scarier future to me than a virus being more deadly than it should have been, especially a virus that seems only truly deadly for the elderly
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:06 am to Pettifogger
quote:No, it isnt
So cancelling the Houston Rodeo and not letting a few hundred thousand fans watch basketball games, etc. isn't worth 20k lives?
and if it is to you, you should be for cancelling events every single year. Because if you cancelled all events every year, i would guarantee between the flu, viral pneumonia, RSV, and many others that would save 20k plus lives
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:06 am to mdomingue
Part of the problem is that the virus is "burning itself out" most places (besides Italy) but all of those places were very diligent (to my knowledge) in testing and/or social distancing and similar measures.
So it's not like we have a test case we can look at where the curve peaked and declined with no effort to stop it. I think that screws with public perception.
So it's not like we have a test case we can look at where the curve peaked and declined with no effort to stop it. I think that screws with public perception.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:07 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
but I would rather not go overboard and have it possibly be worse than it should have been, then have everyone just be ok with "better safe than sorry"
well I don't think cancelling large gatherings is going that overboard right now
going overboard is what China did and I don't think we will come close to that
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:08 am to Salmon
quote:
I don't believe this is true.
Look it up. Not one single kid under the age of 9 has ever been infected with this virus across the entire world!
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:08 am to nolatiger711
quote:
What’s the doubling rate of China?
Do you really trust the word of the Chinese government? We already know they lie about everything.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:08 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
and if it is to you, you should be for cancelling events every single year. Because if you cancelled all events every year, i would guarantee between the flu, viral pneumonia, RSV, and many others that would save 20k plus lives
But the impacts aren't the same. We have immunities to influenza, so social distancing at this level can't be expected to be as effective. I just don't think they're comparable.
Now, I do think flu rates and probably some deaths will be avoided because people are more diligently practicing handwashing and similar practices, so good.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:08 am to Supermoto Tiger
quote:Shut up idiot
Look it up. Not one single kid under the age of 9 has ever been infected with this virus across the entire world!
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:09 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
We didn't have these extreme measures for whats o far are objectively worse situations, and none of them turned into catastrophic events. Therefore, why are we all freaking out about this one?
I don't think we can say "others were catastrophic so this one definitely won't be." Nor can we say "the last ones missed, so THIS is really the big one" like the media seems to be saying.
I don't think cancelling events that would essentially work as a hub and spoke system for this virus is a bad thing. I also don't think we need full scale doomsday bunkers with 6 months of food and supplies.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:09 am to Supermoto Tiger
quote:
Look it up. Not one single kid under the age of 9 has ever been infected with this virus across the entire world!
Infants and newborns have gotten it
^ This is what I'm talking about
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:09 am to Pettifogger
quote:What about the simple thing of making 50% of our retarded nation take the flu vaccine?
But the impacts aren't the same. We have immunities to influenza, so social distancing at this level can't be expected to be as effective. I just don't think they're comparable.
How are people that are far these cancellations not outraged and protesting that daily?
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:10 am to Supermoto Tiger
quote:
Look it up. Not one single kid under the age of 9 has ever been infected with this virus across the entire world!
I don't need to because I know its false
not showing symptoms =/= not getting the virus
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:11 am to TH03
quote:If the curve flattens in 2-3 weeks, and we still have no events and gatherings etc etc, will you start being upset?
I don't think we can say "others were catastrophic so this one definitely won't be." Nor can we say "the last ones missed, so THIS is really the big one" like the media seems to be saying.
I don't think cancelling events that would essentially work as a hub and spoke system for this virus is a bad thing. I also don't think we need full scale doomsday bunkers with 6 months of food and supplies.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:11 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Plenty of these on both sides of the freak out or not freak out fence, and I definitely agree with you that it's baffling.
100%. The subreddit for coronavirus has tons of examples of the freak out side.
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