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re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/21/17 at 7:37 pm to
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92058 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 7:37 pm to
quote:

texag7


Thanks.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:03 pm to
18z GEFS shows a spread from northern Mexico to SW Louisiana

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:31 pm to
quote:

where's that precip map that references the 35+"?


12z GFS had a max of 41" but shifted east at 18z with a more progressive look, anyway, 12z is below:

Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42096 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:32 pm to
41 inches over how long a period of time???
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92058 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:33 pm to
Do you have a link to that map?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

41 inches over how long a period of time???


That is over 8 days or so, the 12z GFS cuts the storm off from the flow, it gets trapped over Texas with a stalled frontal boundary and a constant flow of deep tropical moisture. Basically, a worst case scenario.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

Do you have a link to that map?


Pivotal Weather - LINK
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42096 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

That is over 8 days or so, the 12z GFS cuts the storm off from the flow, it gets trapped over Texas with a stalled frontal boundary and a constant flow of deep tropical moisture. Basically, a worst case scenario.


From what it looks like though it should stay south of DFW for the most part right?

Last time that kinda rain fell the Trinity River was damn near in I-30
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10977 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:47 pm to

Wow, thanks guys that narrows it down.



At least we know exactly where 92 is going.

Posted by ellishughtiger
70118
Member since Jul 2004
21135 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:48 pm to
Houston is about to get their 3rd 500 year flood in 2 years
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92058 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

Pivotal Weather


Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45852 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

Houston is about to get their 3rd 500 year flood in 2 years

Unreal
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:05 pm to
For reference, here is the 12z Euro, there is an area 35"+ in the bright purple and even wider spread 20"+ (image courtesy of @BigJoeBastardi and WXBell)



Posted by JMFG
Member since Apr 2008
306 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:35 pm to
Really no talk of this in Houston so far..... What are the chances of this playing out? Low? Guess a wait and see approach is best but figured people here would be talking about it by now
Posted by LoneStarTiger
Lone Star State
Member since Aug 2004
16238 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:38 pm to
So, we will get a half inch or so
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10977 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:38 pm to
Do you speak Spanish? They might be talking about it behind your back.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

So does a weak storm or stronger storm give this system a better chance of staying more to the south ?


Hard to say, its a very complex setup with an ULL currently sitting over the Gulf, convection associated with 92L, a trough digging into the East with multiple shortwaves in the flow coming in behind it. The track of the ULL and the convection associated with 92L will play a role in ridging across the Gulf and Texas in the short term.

The trough digging into the East will also play a role in ridging but appears to be too early to fully pull Harvey out of the Gulf. Then the shortwaves coming down after will try to capture Harvey and kick it out. The 12z Euro turns it back into Louisiana while the 12z GFS misses Harvey and leaves it over Texas.

The 18z GFS is a slightly different setup that allows Harvey to get more NE, which also makes it easier for it to get picked up in the flow.

The differences b/w the 12z and 18z GFS aren't that drastic but they result in widely different results, esp. for rainfall across Texas.

ETA: Another thing, where Harvey eventually closes off also plays a big role in the future track.


This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 9:49 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20622 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

So, we will get a half inch or so


We need just 3" to log our wettest summer ever here in DFW, that is what I'm aiming for! Hopefully, we will have a dry stretch before it cools off to keep the mold in check. Spontaneous fermentation seems to work best with a cold snap after a dry period
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:47 pm to
What's SWLA looking at? A decent amount of rain? I can deal with that as long as my power isn't going to go out for days on end.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13156 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 10:24 pm to
FWIW, the 00Z NAM is stronger and east of the 18Z run and looks to be generally heading toward Galveston...

This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 10:34 pm
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