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1
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:03 pm to RummelTiger
18z GEFS shows a spread from northern Mexico to SW Louisiana
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:31 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
where's that precip map that references the 35+"?
12z GFS had a max of 41" but shifted east at 18z with a more progressive look, anyway, 12z is below:
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:32 pm to rds dc
41 inches over how long a period of time???
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:33 pm to rds dc
Do you have a link to that map?
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:43 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
41 inches over how long a period of time???
That is over 8 days or so, the 12z GFS cuts the storm off from the flow, it gets trapped over Texas with a stalled frontal boundary and a constant flow of deep tropical moisture. Basically, a worst case scenario.
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:44 pm to RummelTiger
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:46 pm to rds dc
quote:
That is over 8 days or so, the 12z GFS cuts the storm off from the flow, it gets trapped over Texas with a stalled frontal boundary and a constant flow of deep tropical moisture. Basically, a worst case scenario.
From what it looks like though it should stay south of DFW for the most part right?
Last time that kinda rain fell the Trinity River was damn near in I-30
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:47 pm to rds dc
Wow, thanks guys that narrows it down.
At least we know exactly where 92 is going.
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:48 pm to 50_Tiger
Houston is about to get their 3rd 500 year flood in 2 years
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
Pivotal Weather
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:59 pm to ellishughtiger
quote:
Houston is about to get their 3rd 500 year flood in 2 years
Unreal
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:05 pm to rds dc
For reference, here is the 12z Euro, there is an area 35"+ in the bright purple and even wider spread 20"+ (image courtesy of @BigJoeBastardi and WXBell)
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:35 pm to rds dc
Really no talk of this in Houston so far..... What are the chances of this playing out? Low? Guess a wait and see approach is best but figured people here would be talking about it by now
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:38 pm to rds dc
So, we will get a half inch or so
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:38 pm to JMFG
Do you speak Spanish? They might be talking about it behind your back.
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:43 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
So does a weak storm or stronger storm give this system a better chance of staying more to the south ?
Hard to say, its a very complex setup with an ULL currently sitting over the Gulf, convection associated with 92L, a trough digging into the East with multiple shortwaves in the flow coming in behind it. The track of the ULL and the convection associated with 92L will play a role in ridging across the Gulf and Texas in the short term.
The trough digging into the East will also play a role in ridging but appears to be too early to fully pull Harvey out of the Gulf. Then the shortwaves coming down after will try to capture Harvey and kick it out. The 12z Euro turns it back into Louisiana while the 12z GFS misses Harvey and leaves it over Texas.
The 18z GFS is a slightly different setup that allows Harvey to get more NE, which also makes it easier for it to get picked up in the flow.
The differences b/w the 12z and 18z GFS aren't that drastic but they result in widely different results, esp. for rainfall across Texas.
ETA: Another thing, where Harvey eventually closes off also plays a big role in the future track.
This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 9:49 pm
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:46 pm to LoneStarTiger
quote:
So, we will get a half inch or so
We need just 3" to log our wettest summer ever here in DFW, that is what I'm aiming for! Hopefully, we will have a dry stretch before it cools off to keep the mold in check. Spontaneous fermentation seems to work best with a cold snap after a dry period
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:47 pm to rds dc
What's SWLA looking at? A decent amount of rain? I can deal with that as long as my power isn't going to go out for days on end.
Posted on 8/21/17 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
FWIW, the 00Z NAM is stronger and east of the 18Z run and looks to be generally heading toward Galveston...
This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 10:34 pm
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