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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/21/17 at 1:50 pm to
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92052 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

As this complex setup unfolds, it does appear that some places in Texas will get a lot of rain.



I'm in the orange inland dot.

Looks like I could get 10" this weekend...
Posted by toni_the_tigress
Member since Aug 2017
120 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 1:52 pm to
I thought Harvey dissapated forever?
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92052 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

I thought Harvey dissapated forever?


Never!
Posted by toni_the_tigress
Member since Aug 2017
120 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

Never!




Apparently, the non-tiger version of Harvey is having a comeback.
Posted by shawnlsu
Member since Nov 2011
23682 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Texas or Mexico

Is there really a difference?
Posted by scott8811
Ratchet City, LA
Member since Oct 2014
12435 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 2:16 pm to
so I guess 93L is toast??
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 3:13 pm to
Both the 12z Euro and GFS show significant flood potential across parts of Texas.
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92052 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 4:29 pm to
quote:

Both the 12z Euro and GFS show significant flood potential across parts of Texas.


Yeah, were already monitoring for our company here in Austin. We have about 400 people here, and if it hits with that much rain, we will most certainly be impacted from a people and logistic standpoint...
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92052 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 4:36 pm to
quote:

12z GFS is showing 35"+ for the Hill Country...


Completely missed this!

Holy fricking shite...if that happens, there will be some major damage around these parts.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:19 pm to
A pretty significant shift NE on the 18z GFS. At this point, a lot to workout but Houston or even SW Louisiana might be in play given the trends.

Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
10977 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

rds dc



What do you make of 92's latest forecast tracks?
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
39628 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:24 pm to
35" of rain in the hill country would be catastrophic. I'm talking losses of many homes
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17944 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:29 pm to
Geez that escalated quickly. At least Harvey is a nice enough guy to wait until after the eclipse to start hogging all the attention.
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92052 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:16 pm to
quote:

35" of rain in the hill country would be catastrophic. I'm talking losses of many homes


Yeah, no bueno...at all.
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
92052 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:19 pm to
Hey, man, where's that precip map that references the 35+"? You obviously know I'm not asking because I don't trust you - just wanting to keep an eye on it as the situation progresses. Thanks!
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
102494 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:23 pm to
quote:

Never!


ISWYDT
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
39628 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:24 pm to
LINK

The GFS model from tropicaltidbits.com. They run new every 6 hours I think. You click on the Precip/Moisture tab and can overlay the expected 24 hr precip or expected precip for the entire model run (several days).
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
144296 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

Geez that escalated quickly. At least Harvey is a nice enough guy to wait until after the eclipse to start hogging all the attention.

excuse me... it's now Mike VII

ETA:
This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 6:33 pm
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13153 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:36 pm to
18Z HMON much stronger and eastward shift from 12Z...

This top one is the HMON that replaced the GFDL, not the HWRF that always bombs systems out (shown in the second image).



Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5630 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:51 pm to
So does a weak storm or stronger storm give this system a better chance of staying more to the south ?
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