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re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/19/17 at 11:46 am to
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16212 posts
Posted on 8/19/17 at 11:46 am to
Whatcha think about ole 92l? I'm thinking its pretty much toast too. It is amazing to me to see that what we will likely get out of all the strong waves that were generated off the African coast in the past week will be one very weak t.s. that washes out before it does anything. I saw a professional meteorologist say on a weather forum that all the signs were so strong to development early on of these systems that it would almost be more interesting if nothing came of them, meaning it is definitely odd for the Atlantic MDR to be so unproductinve this close to the peak of the season when it seemed that so many things were falling into place for the lid to come off. That clearly hasn't happened. And if the trend continues it may not happen. Later season 'home brews' may be the main production this season.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/20/17 at 9:39 am to
Ghost of Harvey looking better today than TS Harvey looked yesterday.



12z tracks

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42856 posts
Posted on 8/20/17 at 9:46 am to
Little fricker just won't die completely.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/20/17 at 9:55 am to
quote:


Little fricker just won't die completely.


It should see conditions more favorable for development moving forward with the major hurdle being interaction with land. The GFS limits time over water while the Euro and UK get it back out into the southern Gulf.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42856 posts
Posted on 8/20/17 at 10:03 am to
I know it's still several days away but I think it stays decently away from Louisiana, but if it goes to Northern Mexico/ Southeast Texas would we get rain from it or you think it will be too far south for that.
Posted by TxWadingFool
Middle Coast
Member since Sep 2014
5107 posts
Posted on 8/20/17 at 10:48 am to
We could use a decent sized storm in the coastal bend of Texas, been a long time since our bays have had a good flushing.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 5:59 am to
06z tracks
This post was edited on 8/21/17 at 7:47 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:33 am to
00z EURO EPS now has a cluster that bends back into Louisiana, certainly an outlier at this point but something to watch

Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42856 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:39 am to
GFS has a similar solution makes landfall in southern Texas, moves it northwest then it starts turning southeast then east towards Louisiana later in the run obviously not as a TD or TS anymore.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 6:46 am to
quote:


GFS has a similar solution makes landfall in southern Texas, moves it northwest then it starts turning southeast then east towards Louisiana later in the run obviously not as a TD or TS anymore.


Euro does something similar but there is a cluster of members that don't get that far inland and then appear to strengthen it significantly before moving into Louisiana. Just a one off run but it showed up across different model packages.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 7:47 am to
12z tracks

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 8:44 am to
As this complex setup unfolds, it does appear that some places in Texas will get a lot of rain.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 9:24 am to
06z GEGS with another shift northward, about half the tracks now into Texas.



Posted by LoneStarTiger
Lone Star State
Member since Aug 2004
16232 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 10:05 am to
sure hope we get some rain
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 11:42 am to
quote:

sure hope we get some rain


12z GFS is showing 35"+ for the Hill Country...
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42075 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 11:50 am to
GET THAT shite AWAY FROM DFW
Posted by Serial
Crowley
Member since Dec 2010
105 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 11:53 am to
How much rain will southwest la get?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42856 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 11:53 am to
I still feel a little northward shift in the next few days not a big shift though.
Posted by G2160
houston
Member since May 2013
1880 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 11:56 am to
What is the twitter handle of the meteorologist who correctly called a Beaumont landfall (going against most other models) of one of the storms earlier this year?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42856 posts
Posted on 8/21/17 at 1:46 pm to
New Euro makes landfall in southeast Texas then comes back offshore and looks like it will make a 2nd landfall in Southwest Louisiana.
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