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Started By
Message
re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:25 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:25 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
The problem with tropical moisture is that certain areas might get stuck under a band that just keeps dumping rain. This might produce a bulk of that rain in a short period of time. No way to pinpoint who will get what. So it might say a total of 20 inches over a few days but half of that might fall in a few hours and could be troublesome. Ya dig?
1
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:27 pm to bigberg2000
My wife is going to get 8in over the next 3min.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:28 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
got like 12 inches of rain in 10 hours during the Memorial Day flood and that was just street flooding
Where are you at?
If you get similar amounts or a bit more over more time, and the rain is over a larger area, and a sustained wind from the south starts backing up bayous and rivers... could be a different story. Or no story at all.
This is all about the "potential" for something to happen.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:29 pm to Placebeaux
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:29 pm to dukke v
(no message)
This post was edited on 10/19/21 at 10:32 pm
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:30 pm to dukke v
quote:
I was wrong so what...... at the time the models showed
That's the problem you make these predictions based off of models 7 days in advance. You have nothing but models to back up these lousy predictions.
Just sit back and let's see how it plays out instead of guessing and making shite up.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:31 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
I guess I'm confused or not getting the same info as those in here, because every forecast and advisory I've read says what you just posted. And 15-20 inches of rain in a 4 day period really isn't a big deal at least for where I live. 35-50 inches obviously is
The rainfall totals are 5 and 7 days out, but the bulk of that rain falls in a 48ish hour window.
Also, the NHC graphic is out of date at this point, and they stress that locally higher amounts can/will be higher. Predicting rainfall amounts down to the local level is a difficult task, but the latest global models suggest the potential is there for high end amounts - 30"+ between Corpus and Houston.
Hopefully it doesn't happen.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:32 pm to dukke v
quote:
this system fooled the hell out of me...
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:32 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
That's the problem you make these predictions based off of models 7 days in advance. You have nothing but models to back up these lousy predictions.
Just sit back and let's see how it plays out instead of guessing and making shite up.
He doesn't know wtf he's looking at anyways. Dude is too stupid to understand how stupid he is.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:32 pm to Placebeaux
quote:
My wife is going to get 8in over the next 3min.
You have your numbers confused.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:33 pm to LSUFanHouston
I live in town so it's obviously dependent on the bayous (Buffalo)
I've been through plenty of hurricanes and tropical storms so I know how it works and what to do. I'm just trying to reconcile what I'm reading here with *potential* for 33-50 inches of rain and the advisory like the one posted with the *potential* for 15-20
I've been through plenty of hurricanes and tropical storms so I know how it works and what to do. I'm just trying to reconcile what I'm reading here with *potential* for 33-50 inches of rain and the advisory like the one posted with the *potential* for 15-20
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:36 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
I'm just trying to reconcile what I'm reading here with *potential* for 33-50 inches of rain and the advisory like the one posted with the *potential* for 15-20
Pretty easy - the NHC graphic/notice was issued before the model runs with the catastrophic numbers. I suspect we'll see higher numbers from the NHC in the next issue.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:36 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Yeah, I realize how bad this can be for lots of people, so I'm staying out of it, but I don't live close to any rivers or lakes and my area drains Really well. 12 inches of rain from Friday to Wednesday here is not a big deal. It's the local, unpredictable downpours that get you.
Hope everyone else is doing what they can to stay prepared and safe. Rds, medtiger, and anyone else taking their time to keep us less informed up to speed, thank you.
Hope everyone else is doing what they can to stay prepared and safe. Rds, medtiger, and anyone else taking their time to keep us less informed up to speed, thank you.
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:36 pm to slackster
Ah okay
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:38 pm to dukke v
quote:
I'm still here knowing this system fooled the hell out of me...
They have a strange tendency to do that to you more than most.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:38 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
I'm supposed to fly to Nola for a fantasy football draft this weekend...guess that's cancelled. frick.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:40 pm to tipup
quote:
quote:
My wife is going to get 8in over the next 3min.
You have your numbers confused.
Maybe he's out of town.
I'm far enough north to not have a dog in this hunt (I HOPE) but good luck, ya'll, that's a shitload of water being predicted.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:40 pm to cwill
quote:
I'm supposed to fly to Nola for a fantasy football draft this weekend...guess that's cancelled
Barring any major changes, you should be able to get in and out of New Orleans without much trouble this weekend.
ETA - weather trouble, to be clear. Whether you're assaulted is still a substantial risk.
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 3:41 pm
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:46 pm to slackster
This thread seems like a good place to mention that Alvin, TX holds the 24-hour rainfall record in the US - 43 inches!
Occurred during Tropical Storm Claudette in July 1979. That is an outrageous amount of rain.
Occurred during Tropical Storm Claudette in July 1979. That is an outrageous amount of rain.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 3:46 pm to slackster
I'm not sure I can get out of Hobby...plus don't think my family would appreciate the abandonment in the face of biblical flooding. Probably couldn't get back Sunday.
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