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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:43 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21473 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:43 am to
quote:


The scale only goes up to 24+ inches, but there are ares in there that are projected for 24 inches in 24 hours, so the totals are much higher.


A lot of that falls while the center is to the west of Houston/Galveston. Constant southerly winds will back up rivers and bays. This is a worst case scenario unfolding.
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
45108 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:44 am to
quote:

A lot of that falls while the center is to the west of Houston/Galveston. Constant southerly winds will back up rivers and bays. This is a worst case scenario unfolding.
Posted by glassman
Next to the beer taps at Finn's
Member since Oct 2008
118204 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:48 am to
quote:

Constant southerly winds will back up rivers and bays.


That is a lot of water moving straight up the Houston Ship Channel.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:49 am to
This would be a major problem.



50.3" near El Campo.
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 11:49 am
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
23135 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:49 am to
quote:

Constant southerly winds will back up rivers and bays.


I'm assuming those rivers and bays are the ones in East Texas and Southwestern LA? Assuming it's current projections are accurate?
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93577 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:50 am to
quote:

12z GFS is weaker and doesn't dig as much with that S/W. There is no weakness for Harvey to escape towards and the ridge builds back over the top forcing Harvey back to the SW.


Should be a nice couch weekend for me!
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:53 am to
50 inches in a matter of 7 days.....i assume 90% of that would be dumped in a 24-48hr period
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
48694 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:57 am to
it's going right over my camp in Matagorda
frick
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:58 am to
quote:

50 inches in a matter of 7 days.....i assume 90% of that would be dumped in a 24-48hr period


For the most part. The rain totals are minimal through the first 60 hours.
Posted by 3deadtrolls
lafayette
Member since Jan 2014
6893 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:58 am to
Just landed in Houston and heading home. Lafayette still projected so far for 8-10"?
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:59 am to
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78301 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:00 pm to
Seems like the projections get worse hourly
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
41278 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:02 pm to
quote:


50.3" near El Campo.



My moms entire family farms there
Posted by GeauxMariners
BR
Member since Jan 2010
2341 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:02 pm to
Does it look like it will be out of lake Charles by Wednesday? I fly lake Charles to Dallas on the 30th
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:05 pm to
Wednesday? Thats when this thing will be kicking up. You aint flying no where out of LC on the 30th

Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92903 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

No worries for the U.S. mainland


Every. Damn. Time.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

My moms entire family farms there


I've got a ton of family in Cuero. Hopefully these numbers fail to verify.
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:11 pm to
That picture shows a pretty healthy, organized storm. Is that with the assumption it stays close enough to the coast that it can maintain? What strength does it project it to be at that point?
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
74719 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:14 pm to
Houston fam.

Thought I'd get out ahead of mass hysteria and pick up all the dry goods I could before this afternoon. It's already taking place at the Woodlands HEB. No more gallons of water. Bottled water supply is almost gone.

Better to get out now and stick up before waiting in lines folks
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

Is that with the assumption it stays close enough to the coast that it can maintain? What strength does it project it to be at that point


It is nothing more than a tropical storm, if that, in that image.

For the time being, wind speed doesn't appear to be a major concern in any global models.
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