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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:13 am to
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:13 am to
Why do yall give him so much attention. Maybe if yall stopped he would stop too.
Posted by fatboydave
Fat boy land
Member since Aug 2004
17979 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:13 am to
The damn cone makes an appearance!
Posted by bigberg2000
houston, from chalmette
Member since Sep 2005
70731 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:15 am to
Yeah my area up here in the kingwood area hasn't had flood g so not too worried about us but you never know.

I guess if I head toward b.r. I should leave Friday morning instead of Saturday. I am just worried about being stuck in La as I wanted to return to Houston on Sunday.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:15 am to
quote:

This is what you get for taking your family to the #1 hillbilly vacation spot in the world..... gulf shores


Says the guy from Bossier shity...
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:17 am to
How many of you baws remeber Allison?



Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:18 am to
A positive side to this is anything can change in the next few days. In my short life I've seen so many unprojected atmospheric conditions seemingly come out of nowhere and just completely change the path of these systems. Let's hope something comes along that really helps us in Texas/Louisiana. In June the Tropical Storm got ravaged by dry air when it hit Louisiana. Maybe something will pull this system up much faster. 40 inches of rain around the Houston area is absolutely ludicrous right now. That's more rain than the one in 2001...that's just projected totals. Nobody deserves this much hate.
Posted by BayouBengal
Member since Nov 2003
28291 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Looks like the last pattern my Southwest flight took waiting to land at IAH


Not surprised cause the pilot is lost if he's landing a Southwest flight at IAH.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:22 am to
Wind could be a big problem for some people especially here where I live. If this ends up a Cat 1-2 and gives a strong south push it could effectively wipe my entire area out with these projected rain totals.
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82738 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:26 am to
No, he won't...
Posted by Cooter Davenport
Austin, TX
Member since Apr 2012
9006 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Not surprised cause the pilot is lost if he's landing a Southwest flight at IAH.


Southwest has a couple of flights into IAH now.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:38 am to
Posted by Boat Motor Bandit
Member since Jun 2016
1891 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:55 am to
bearpawsweather.com you can thank me later
Posted by gadknot
Reality
Member since Jul 2005
37306 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:57 am to
any expert want to tell me the chances of my flight from Dallas to NOLA being affected sunday afternoon?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:58 am to
Still dealing with some significant shear. You can see the upper level clouds being blown away as soon as they form in SW quadrant.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21472 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:02 am to
quote:

I don't have a lot of confidence in the forecast, the models are moving Harvey through an area with not much steering in between two ridges. Then it just kind of meanders waiting on the S/W (blue line over the Pacific NW) to move SE in the northern stream and kick it out of the area. The problem, that S/W won't be on shore for two more days and the models really struggle with those small scale features until they get much closer in time.





12z GFS is weaker and doesn't dig as much with that S/W. There is no weakness for Harvey to escape towards and the ridge builds back over the top forcing Harvey back to the SW. Still a huge amount of uncertainty.



vs. 06z

This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 11:07 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:02 am to
quote:

any expert want to tell me the chances of my flight from Dallas to NOLA being affected sunday afternoon?


Depends. That is about as good as you're going to get for the next 24-48 hours.

The GFS suggests you'd be okay, the NAM suggests it would be highly unlikely. And there are a handful of other models that say other things.
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40286 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:04 am to
quote:

How many of you baws remeber Allison?



like yesterday. That was nuts.


This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 11:04 am
Posted by BayouBengal
Member since Nov 2003
28291 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Southwest has a couple of flights into IAH now.



Except for they don't

LINK

LINK
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:07 am to
quote:

12z GFS is weaker and doesn't dig as much with that S/W. There is no weakness for Harvey to escape towards and the ridge builds back over the top forcing Harvey back to the SW. Still a huge amount of uncertainty.


ETA- Scratch that, I'm looking at the 6z. Sorry.
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 11:10 am
Posted by LCA131
Home of the Fake Sig lines
Member since Feb 2008
77208 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:08 am to
quote:

any expert want to tell me the chances of my flight from Dallas to NOLA being affected sunday afternoon?


Peej will call you shortly.
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