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Started By
Message
re: Gas prices could reach $10-12 a gallon next year on the West Coast
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:13 am to deltaland
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:13 am to deltaland
quote:
The only issue I see is wouldn’t this cause higher prices elsewhere? California will have a shortage and have to buy gas from other states driving up demand and lowering supply nationwide
No.
California uses a special grade of gasoline.
It has driven out the refineries that make it in-state.
There is no pipeline infrastructure to bring it in from other states. So it has to come in by sealift tankers.
The Jones Act prohibits (practically speaking) shipping it directly to California from Gulf Coast refiners, which could handle the demand.
They are already importing gasoline from Asia.
When Valero closes in March, the deficit will equal or exceed the amount they can import.
Supply, meet demand.
But it won’t do much to prices elsewhere in the US.
0
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:17 am to TigerintheNO
And the U-Hauls continue to go East…
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:23 am to TigerintheNO
they voted for this Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:29 am to TigerintheNO
quote:
There is no infrastructure in place to bring that much oil from other states. They get their oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Ecuador.
California produces a lot of it's own oil as well.
Their refining capacity also outpaces their consumption and will continue to do so with these shutdown.
The hidden part of this is some of the oil consumed by the refineries being shut down is not able to be exported due to logistics. Basically the refineries are the sole means of consumption for those barrels. So that means that US production is now trapped.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:35 am to EphesianArmor
quote:
CA's Scorched Earth authoritarian policies and governance make no sense. UNLESS... The Globalists must now be completely in charge of California. This is a controlled but rapid demolition of the state as Agenda 2030 in the US and its "15-minute cities" begin in CA.
Wow…take a break from the intranets baw. You have gone way too far down the rabbit hole.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:40 am to TigerintheNO
I hope they pay $15 a gallon.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:41 am to TigerintheNO
This is not new. Closures began around 1990. Two indie refineries in Los Angeles County, then in 1991, Shell closed its Wilmington refinery Carson site while selling the Wilmington site to Uniocal to replace Unocal's ancient refinery badly needing upgrading. One of the first two closed was partially sold off and the rest dismantled and moved to Houston for refurbishment. It not sits in a laydown yard 80% refurbished for over a decade. The project to use it in Romania was cancelled.
Shell was tired of CA idiotic regulations requiring major capital expenditures for unneeded entire standby units/ Instead it invested in expanding its Singapore refinery partially to ship gasoline to California.
Shell was tired of CA idiotic regulations requiring major capital expenditures for unneeded entire standby units/ Instead it invested in expanding its Singapore refinery partially to ship gasoline to California.
This post was edited on 12/20/25 at 8:44 am
Posted on 12/20/25 at 8:54 am to CitizenK
quote:
Shell was tired of CA idiotic regulations requiring major capital expenditures for unneeded entire standby units/ Instead it invested in expanding its Singapore refinery partially to ship gasoline to California.
This is what most of the majors are doing. They don't see long term viability in California refining due to demand drop off. The capital needed to continue refining can be better utilized elsewhere. They still have capability to taking advantage of the Cali market there will just be a lag in their ramp up response.
There is a PE group laying out a plan to buy the P66 complex and still run. It is a pie in the sky plan. Part of the idea is run the refinery to continue to supply out of state demand. It's hard to even start to explain where that plan is bad.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 9:51 am to TigerintheNO
This is what they voted for
Posted on 12/20/25 at 9:52 am to SPEEDY
Good
Posted on 12/20/25 at 10:15 am to DesScorp
The tragedy is that there are hundreds of thousands of good folks out there who are outvoted by certain city precincts. They are tied by family (does this sound familiar?) to California.
We can't call all CA immigrants scum, some will fit in in other states.
Heck, we've met people in New England who saw our Tennessee license plate and started talking about "What's it really like down there?" And we've told them, and after listening to their responses, encouraged them to come down here, find a job and a church and see if they like it. (Church being optional, but a good way to meet people and see how well you fit in.)
We can't call all CA immigrants scum, some will fit in in other states.
Heck, we've met people in New England who saw our Tennessee license plate and started talking about "What's it really like down there?" And we've told them, and after listening to their responses, encouraged them to come down here, find a job and a church and see if they like it. (Church being optional, but a good way to meet people and see how well you fit in.)
Posted on 12/20/25 at 10:19 am to TigerintheNO
Good. frick ‘em.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 11:22 am to TigerintheNO
We are already 2.20 in Louisiana. I don’t see how these people can look at CA prices compared to most of the country and not flee.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 11:26 am to CitizenK
In the early 1990's while I was at Shell's Carson site. I was offered several much better opportunities but even conservative bastion, Orange County was lacking in common sense and too lefty for me.
The major issue I saw was all of the urbanites from cities in the Midwest and Northeast who moved to CA.
The major issue I saw was all of the urbanites from cities in the Midwest and Northeast who moved to CA.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 11:34 am to Demonbengal
quote:
are already 2.20 in Louisiana. I don’t see how these people can look at CA prices compared to most of the country and not flee.
The difference in gasoline prices probably amounts to about $1200/year for the average driver versus somewhere like Louisiana. Louisiana makes that up in auto insurance.
People fret over the price at the pump but the average person only consumes about 500-600 gallons a year.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 12:15 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
There is a PE group laying out a plan to buy the P66 complex and still run. It is a pie in the sky plan. Part of the idea is run the refinery to continue to supply out of state demand. It's hard to even start to explain where that plan is bad.
There have been several refineries planned for Permian Basin crude to supply California. These are specifically designed for very light tight shale crude and produce almost all gasoline and diesel. 5 each at 50,000 BPD by Polaris of Lake Charles funding came close for one but never materialized. The issue isn't shipping fuels from CA to other states but the opposite via rail. It never reopened after being shutdown for Covid.
I have a refinery for sale, not in CA where much of the gasoline was shipped to CA via truck.
I've heard ignorant pundits claim that only CA refineries can meet the boutique gasoline specs for CA which is a horseshite claim
This post was edited on 12/20/25 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 12/20/25 at 12:21 pm to TigerintheNO
They will just blame Trump like always.
Posted on 12/20/25 at 1:08 pm to CitizenK
quote:
I've heard ignorant pundits claim that only CA refineries can meet the boutique gasoline specs for CA which is a horseshite claim
The spec isn't hard to meet. The market for the byproduct just doesnt exist at a level so the final cost has to be jacked up to make it profitable.
Can't sink as much higher rvp material in and can't really use benzene to blend. All that product has to enter the market somewhere and the market just doesn't exist.
Im not sure we see boutique refining ever come back. The constant threat of the rins exemption disappearing will make the money scared.
This post was edited on 12/20/25 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 12/20/25 at 1:50 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Their refining capacity also outpaces their consumption and will continue to do so with these shutdown.
Really? Then why are they importing gasoline?
Posted on 12/20/25 at 1:53 pm to TigerintheNO
They voted for this.
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