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re: First results from Iceland's general population CV19 testing
Posted on 3/17/20 at 3:11 pm to heatom2
Posted on 3/17/20 at 3:11 pm to heatom2
Sounds like you need to clamp the densely populated areas and not Joe Blow in the middle of no where. Maybe JBE should have curfewed NOLA and left the rest of us out of it for the time being.
0
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:04 pm to heatom2
quote:
Seoul South Korea is even more densely populated, but they clamped the country down.
I've been reading about South Korea because their results are very interesting. South Korea did not restrict travel, they did a LOT of testing (more than 250,000 tests), starting with the infected people and their contacts. And then had them isolated. They also tested people coming in to Korea. And they encouraged the population to use masks (common in Korea), and hand sanitizer stations were set up.
And from the WSJ (paywall)
quote:
South Korea’s high test count is a reflection of the broad powers the government gave itself after a botched response to a MERS outbreak five years ago. Investigators now have access to credit-card transactions, smartphone data and security-camera footage. This provides a snapshot of a confirmed patients’ whereabouts—and a broad picture of the potentially affected people.
We've obviously botched the testing side of this. Do we want the US government tracking us like the South Korean government does? This may end up affecting our privacy much like 9/11 did.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:19 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
The Iceland story is interesting because people are leaping to conclusions without really reading or understanding it (surprise).
They've already got a testing procedure for people considered to be at risk. The testing in this story is for random people not considered to be high risk.
They found a 1% infection rate of 1,559 tests. So they found roughly 16 infected people. 8 had no symptoms and 8 had the symptoms of a cold. None of them were going to have strong symptoms because it was for a low risk group. The virus takes several days before people develop symptoms so it is not surprising to find people without symptoms yet. The fact that they have a 1% infection rate is interesting, the rest of it - meh.
They've already got a testing procedure for people considered to be at risk. The testing in this story is for random people not considered to be high risk.
They found a 1% infection rate of 1,559 tests. So they found roughly 16 infected people. 8 had no symptoms and 8 had the symptoms of a cold. None of them were going to have strong symptoms because it was for a low risk group. The virus takes several days before people develop symptoms so it is not surprising to find people without symptoms yet. The fact that they have a 1% infection rate is interesting, the rest of it - meh.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:24 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
Kári says that about half of those who tested positive have shown no symptoms, and the other half show symptoms have having a regular cold.
So what happened on the diamond princess?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:39 pm to waiting4saturday
quote:Practically the same fricking thing?
So what happened on the diamond princess?
Diamond Princess: Of the 634 confirmed cases, a total of 306 and 328 were reported to be symptomatic and asymptomatic, respectively.
Japanese evacuees from Wuhan: We show that the screening result is suggestive of the asymptomatic ratio at 41.6%.
Full transparency on the Diamond Princess: There have been several academic reports on the asymptomatic ratio. Some put it at 20%, some like the above at 50%. But you also have to remember that cruise ship demographics are not real world and skew heavily into the older population.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:41 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
This is the equivalent of "we know it was a fake hate crime but we still need to have the conversation"
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:42 pm to uway
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/13/21 at 8:19 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:43 pm to Zendog
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/13/21 at 7:46 am
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:47 pm to Tigris
ETA: incorrect
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:50 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Essentially what this proves is that it is too late to attempt containment of the virus. Herd immunity is the only answer.
However, it is not too late to attempt to contain the hysteria. Thank you, Iceland, for being a beacon of sanity in these dark times.
However, it is not too late to attempt to contain the hysteria. Thank you, Iceland, for being a beacon of sanity in these dark times.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 4:53 pm to SlowFlowPro
Some country has to go full herd immunity approach and share their results. I bet they are more palatable than ours when the dust clears
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:04 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
The OT: Unless everyone on earth has a face melting, organ liquefying condition right this second then this all a hoax!
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:09 pm to RabidTiger
You got enough TP, baw?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:17 pm to lsufball19
quote:
So basically the mortality rate and the rate of critical cases are much, much lower than is being portrayed. Can't have it both ways. If people are so asymptomatic that there are a large number of undiagnosed cases, it stands to reason that the mortality rate is probably well under 1% (it stands at about 1.7% with the current numbers much of which is attributed to a Washington nursing home).
And if that is the case, why are we shutting down the country and destroying the economy?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 5:38 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
So let's extrapolate the demons.
1600 tests of general population Icelanders 1% show positive.
Iceland total population 364,620
1% of 364,620 = 3,646
When Iceland records its first death the CFR will be at least 1/3646
That is .027%
ATTN OT TP hoarders/fearmongers:
1600 tests of general population Icelanders 1% show positive.
Iceland total population 364,620
1% of 364,620 = 3,646
When Iceland records its first death the CFR will be at least 1/3646
That is .027%
ATTN OT TP hoarders/fearmongers:
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:24 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Friendly reminder that 1% of the US population is 3,000,000.
How many rolls of TP do I need, baws?
How many rolls of TP do I need, baws?
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:29 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Can barely keep this on the first page, but start some shite about looting and itll be here for a while.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 11:19 am to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
When Iceland records its first death the CFR will be at least 1/3646
That is .027%
Daily reminder that we are destroying our economy over this.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:46 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:Amazing. Not a peep from the OT chicken littles.
Iceland total population 364,620
1% of 364,620 = 3,646
When Iceland records its first death the CFR will be at least 1/3646
That is .027%
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:01 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
OT chicken littles: Good at buying toilet paper. Bad at math.
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