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Message
re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread
Posted on 1/27/19 at 12:23 pm to tigerfan247365
Posted on 1/27/19 at 12:23 pm to tigerfan247365
1
Posted on 1/27/19 at 12:28 pm to tigerfan247365
quote:
So when does ebr schools close?
With that budget shortfall, pretty soon I'd say.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 12:56 pm to Jim Rockford
For some reason it’s popping up as an error for some people. They’re pics from WAFB - 80 - 90% chance of wintry mix Tuesday AM. So far this is the only weather app that’s agreed with the models I’ve been seeing on tropical tidbits. Also predicting around .5 inches of accumulation.
This post was edited on 1/27/19 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 1/27/19 at 1:00 pm to SlaughterDale
Unable to view the image. Are you able to correct the error?
Posted on 1/27/19 at 2:20 pm to tigerfan247365
Eh, skeptical of that Futurecast because dryness. Really wish we were in HRRR range so I could have another set of model soundings to work off of. Anyway, let's take a look at the 12z model runs since we're now firmly in the 48 hour window. This is for SELa, the picture is better for rt3 up toward Alexandria and Mississippi and Birmingham posters.
GFS:
Excited yet?
GFS has moderated from the cold trend yesterday and thus the moisture isn't as nicely in place with the actual cold air.
This is the just above ground level temp anomalies when the maps are showing snow for BR/SELa. Basically, when it's finally cold enough through the column for snow around BTR and the Florida Parishes. How's the moisture situation looking?
Not great. Already drying out in the layer we actually had some moisture to work with. Not a great sign.
BR sounding agrees:
Real dry near the bottom, not a lot of moisture to squeeze out the mid levels. Cold chasing moisture, this is how it ends up looking.
Now the NAM, a shorter term higher res model has a little bit more hope for the snow fans here:
I'll note, don't get too excited because the NAM has been overdoing some events on snowfall this year. Ask Oklahoma Mets about that.
The skinny? The chances are remote to see much of anything in SELa beside a few rouge flakes early in the morning Tuesday. Start getting toward Natchez and McComb, it's a different story. The cold getting in a little sooner or a bit more moisture than expected is available and this can all change, winter weather is a bitch to get right. This scenario just isn't typically a winner for us, and there isn't much to suggest model wise to suggest this is going to be much different.
GFS:
Excited yet?
GFS has moderated from the cold trend yesterday and thus the moisture isn't as nicely in place with the actual cold air.
This is the just above ground level temp anomalies when the maps are showing snow for BR/SELa. Basically, when it's finally cold enough through the column for snow around BTR and the Florida Parishes. How's the moisture situation looking?
Not great. Already drying out in the layer we actually had some moisture to work with. Not a great sign.
BR sounding agrees:
Real dry near the bottom, not a lot of moisture to squeeze out the mid levels. Cold chasing moisture, this is how it ends up looking.
Now the NAM, a shorter term higher res model has a little bit more hope for the snow fans here:
I'll note, don't get too excited because the NAM has been overdoing some events on snowfall this year. Ask Oklahoma Mets about that.
The skinny? The chances are remote to see much of anything in SELa beside a few rouge flakes early in the morning Tuesday. Start getting toward Natchez and McComb, it's a different story. The cold getting in a little sooner or a bit more moisture than expected is available and this can all change, winter weather is a bitch to get right. This scenario just isn't typically a winner for us, and there isn't much to suggest model wise to suggest this is going to be much different.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 2:22 pm to Duke
Did you see the temperature today in International Falls, MN? -44 degrees 
Posted on 1/27/19 at 2:25 pm to Duke
They just announced a winter storm watch for the ATL metro.
Joy.
Joy.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 2:25 pm to biggsc
quote:
Did you see the temperature today in International Falls, MN? -44 degrees
frick that noise.
That's like two ski mask and your car won't start kind of weather.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:09 pm to biggsc
quote:
Did you see the temperature today in International Falls, MN? -44 degrees
Wow. Even Mt. Washington, NH isn't that cold.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:18 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Birmingham AL 314 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019 ...SNOW EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... .A strong cold front will move into Central Alabama late Monday night and Tuesday morning. Rain will change over to snow as early as midnight Monday night in the northwest with the rain to snow transition line moving southeastward through the morning on Tuesday. Snow will come to an end around noon on Tuesday. While snow will only fall for a couple hours at a given location, it may be heavy at times resulting in accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts. Temperatures will also fall below freezing as the snow falls Tuesday morning, which may result in difficult travel conditions even where accumulations are less than 2 inches. This will impact the morning commute especially along the Interstate 20 corridor. ALZ011>015-017>036-039-281000- /O.NEW.KBMX.WS.A.0001.190129T0600Z-190129T1800Z/ Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun- Cherokee-Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair- Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton- Coosa-Marengo- Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette, Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, Heflin, Carrollton, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana, Pelham, Alabaster, Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga, Ashland, Roanoke, Livingston, Eutaw, Greensboro, Moundville, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Rockford, Demopolis, and Linden 314 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches possible with isolated higher amounts. Temperatures falling below freezing may result in difficult travel conditions. * WHERE...Portions of Central Alabama, including areas along and north of a line from Linden to Clanton to Wedowee. * WHEN...From late Monday night through Tuesday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on dangerous road conditions at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:20 pm to Bestbank Tiger
Mt. Washington has some insane wind up there
Posted on 1/27/19 at 3:22 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Wow. Even Mt. Washington, NH isn't that cold.
Mt. Washington doesn't actually get like MN/ND cold consistently but the wind and snowfall is incredible. So it might be like -11 at Mt. Washington vs -30 in Fargo, but that 84 mph wind at Mt. Washington makes it a different animal.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 4:31 pm to Duke
I was in International Falls last in December. It is like what I picture Siberia would look like. But people just go about their business like it's nothing. The paper mill was humming along.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 4:34 pm to Cool Hand Luke
The paper mills I've been in are hot as balls. That must be something going from inside to outside and vice versa.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 4:38 pm to Cool Hand Luke
quote:
I was in International Falls last in December. It is like what I picture Siberia would look like. But people just go about their business like it's nothing.
Every NWS office has been wording the discussion to sound extreme for the upper midwest. Duluth, MN is basically just like it's going cold and stuff. Like -20 windchills for days is kinda normal or something.
Just not for me. Nope.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 5:34 pm to Duke
Winter Storm Jayden’s mom would like to speak to your manager.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 5:38 pm to The Boat
quote:
Winter Storm Jayden’s mom would like to speak to your manager.
It's poetry that Jayden is coming through the south.
Posted on 1/27/19 at 5:39 pm to bayoubengals88
as we know from the past, we either get no snow or 3 inches+ in baton rouge
Posted on 1/27/19 at 7:59 pm to The Boat
quote:
Winter Storm Jayden’s mom would like to speak to your manager
He's getting into trouble because travel ball hasn't started back up yet.
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