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Escalating Floods Putting Mississippi River’s Old River Control Structure at Risk

Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:10 am
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25994 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:10 am

Above: The Old River Control Structure on the Mississippi River as seen during a flood on May 17, 2009 (left) and at normal waters levels on December 31, 2009 (right).

Weather Underground paints uplifting article on Mississippi River ORCS


Figure 3. Landsat image of the Mississippi River, showing the location of the Old River Control Structure (ORCS) and Widow Graham Bend, located 13 miles to the north-northwest of the ORCS. If the Mississippi broke through its west bank levee at Widow Graham Bend, it could cut a new path to the Gulf of Mexico via the Red River and Atchafalaya River.

"Danger from sandbars upstream
River engineering has forced the river to dump a massive amount of sand upstream from the ORCS. A total of 30 large sandbars containing about 530 million tons of sediment have formed along a 100-mile stretch of the river upstream from the ORCS since 1985 (Figure 2). Future floods could dislodge that sand and wash it downstream, where it would raise the river bottom just south of the control structure, increasing the plugging effect and boosting flood heights to even more dangerous levels.

Major floods can also wash a large amount of sediment into the control structures, threatening to completely block them. A 2011 study, Mississippi River and Old River Control Complex Sedimentation Investigation and HSR Model Report, warned that “there is a real possibility and threat that both Low Sill and Auxiliary could become totally buried with sediment during an extreme event,” leaving only the hydropower structure to manage the flow between the Mississippi River and the Atchafalaya River.

The great flood of 2011, the highest flood ever recorded on the Lower Mississippi River, carried a large amount of sediment into the Low Sill and Auxiliary structures, but did not bury them. Still, the amount of sediment transported was so large that the Corps was forced to perform a major dredging effort between July 2012 and March 2014 along the two structures’ inflow and outflow channels. This was the first such dredging operation since the two structures were built."
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25994 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:12 am to

Above: Aerial view of the four structures of the Mississippi River Old River Control Structure, looking downstream to the south. Water flows from the Mississippi River through the four structures, to the Atchafalaya River (right). Image credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.


Figure 1. Louisiana as seen by the MODIS instrument on March 21, 2019, showing the location of the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers, plus the Old River Control Structure, which diverts 30% of the flow of the Mississippi into the Atchafalaya. Floods of the two rivers were creating large sediment plumes in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit NASA.


Figure 5. The Old River Control Structure’s Low Sill Structure as seen in April 1973. Turbulence from a major flood caused the 67-foot long southern wing wall on the intake channel leading to the Mississippi River to collapse on April 14, and a large eddy can be seen where the wall used to be. The eddy helped scour out a football field-sized hole up to 50 feet deep that undermined 7 of the structure’s 11 gates and nearly caused its failure. A ramp leading to the eddy was built, and an emergency stone replacement dike was built. Image credit: USACE.
Posted by Ed Osteen
Member since Oct 2007
57499 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:14 am to
Doesn't this article come out every time we get a lot of rain?
Posted by Caymus
Houston
Member since Jul 2015
1134 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:15 am to
It’s only a matter of when not if the river diverts
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
20409 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:15 am to
Okay, sum it up for us. Are we all about to die?
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
58162 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:15 am to
quote:

Doesn't this article come out every time we get a lot of rain?




Yep
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
67590 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:16 am to
That muddy water sucks for trout fishing
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
24361 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:17 am to
Has there ever been a study done on how widespread the impact of a levee break in BR would be? We talking water out to airline or would highland again act as a natural levee?
Posted by CarRamrod
Spurbury, VT
Member since Dec 2006
57458 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:17 am to
quote:

Doesn't this article come out every time we get a lot of rain?
yes it does.
Posted by PrivatePublic
Member since Nov 2012
17848 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:18 am to
I have my own personal river control system: don't live next to a river.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25994 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:19 am to
Read the article before you comment. What we have is a sediment problem from the dredges upstream dredging and the soil falls south and builds up. They need to dredge the damn soil and let it fall outside of the levees so it doesn't keep collecting and rising the riverbed.

"Assuming that a solution to the excessive sediment problem could be found, Dr. Joshi stated that the ORCS and the levees surrounding it were so strong that there was perhaps just a 1% chance that the river would jump to a new channel in the next 100 years."
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11485 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:19 am to
quote:

it could cut a new path to the Gulf of Mexico via the Red River and Atchafalaya River.


I don't think this is a new path.
Posted by Uncs
Member since Aug 2008
3080 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:24 am to
Highaland road would be new levee. Then would flow to St. Gaberiel and back fill spanish lake and Bayou Manchac. If that happens and Baton Rouge were to get a significant rain water would really have no where to go and the great flood all over again with no where to drain!!!!!! MASSIVE State of Emergency


All you need are 1 or 2 run away barges on the river to come crashing through the trees loaded with gravel and hit the levee and this possibility becomes a reality very very quickly
This post was edited on 5/13/19 at 11:26 am
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5025 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:29 am to
quote:

Has there ever been a study done on how widespread the impact of a levee break in BR would be? We talking water out to airline or would highland again act as a natural levee?


The levee would break a lot more places before it broke around BR including the bend mentioned in the op. If that happened BR would need to worry about getting enough flow not too much
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5025 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:30 am to
quote:


I don't think this is a new path.


It's a new path for the Mississippi
Posted by J Murdah
Member since Jun 2008
39785 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:33 am to
Doesnt matter, have the high ground
Posted by Bigfishchoupique
Member since Jul 2017
8414 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:34 am to
The rising of the river bed is called “ avulsion”. Google Mississippi River avulsion. It tells the whole story and what is going to happen.
Posted by Capt ST
Hotel California
Member since Aug 2011
12847 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:39 am to
quote:

Assuming that a solution to the excessive sediment problem could be found


Let’s assume one can’t be found, what’s the % of failure with the continued increase in gradient between the 2 rivers?
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
117723 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:40 am to
87.4%
Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41636 posts
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:41 am to
quote:

I have my own personal river control system: don't live next to a river.

If the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure ever fails, people living 50 miles away from the river will likely flood due to all the backwater flooding. It'll affect many more than just those living close to it.
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