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re: Does Vegas want even money on both sides of sportsbook bet ?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:32 pm to The Mick
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:32 pm to The Mick
In theory, the reason lines are created is to make the bet equal. And lines move based on which way the money is going.. If an unevent amount of money is going towards one team, for example, then the casinos will bet the other side. As for as where they bet, it just depends. It can be with other casinos in Vegas (I don't think they bet with other casinos owned by the same company).
With that said, there are games in which they will tweak lines based on non-game factors. For example, lines out of Vegas will have lines on a USC of UCLA game are 1 or 2 points higher than what they should be. With L.A. being within driving distance (or a 45 min flight) there are a lot of people from L.A. who will be placing bets on their favorite team (don't ever bet on your favorite team BTW. Whether you realize it or not, you are going to find away to justify a reason why your team will do better than it actually will), so by raising the line a few points gives the casino a slight advantage. It's not just those two teams.
We are talking about the Lakers, Clippers, Dodgers, now the Chargers and Rams.. UNLV, etc, etc. Also Notre Dame because they have a huge fanbase around the country.
Either way, if they just break even they still make money on the juice.
With that said, there are games in which they will tweak lines based on non-game factors. For example, lines out of Vegas will have lines on a USC of UCLA game are 1 or 2 points higher than what they should be. With L.A. being within driving distance (or a 45 min flight) there are a lot of people from L.A. who will be placing bets on their favorite team (don't ever bet on your favorite team BTW. Whether you realize it or not, you are going to find away to justify a reason why your team will do better than it actually will), so by raising the line a few points gives the casino a slight advantage. It's not just those two teams.
We are talking about the Lakers, Clippers, Dodgers, now the Chargers and Rams.. UNLV, etc, etc. Also Notre Dame because they have a huge fanbase around the country.
Either way, if they just break even they still make money on the juice.
1
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:33 pm to BPTiger
Most bets are locked in at what you bought them for. Part of the contract of the bet is that they can't change the bet after it's been agreed
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:37 pm to OceanMan
vegas loves when the bets even out
but, if you have big favs winning, the house does get its clock cleaned.
a few years ago, teams like oregon,baylor,etc were covering with ease, and a few NFL favs were covering, and people were loading up parlays with those teams.
vegas got beat up badly(vegas i mean the book).
And not too long ago, they took 10 weeks of beatings. In daily racing form, they would tell you what games killed or vegas crushed on, and how they did.
If you see a weekend of favorites covering at will, Vegas is taking a beating.
but, if you have big favs winning, the house does get its clock cleaned.
a few years ago, teams like oregon,baylor,etc were covering with ease, and a few NFL favs were covering, and people were loading up parlays with those teams.
vegas got beat up badly(vegas i mean the book).
And not too long ago, they took 10 weeks of beatings. In daily racing form, they would tell you what games killed or vegas crushed on, and how they did.
If you see a weekend of favorites covering at will, Vegas is taking a beating.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:44 pm to The Mick
No - it's a myth
While that is a general goal the books shoot for, the books are known for gambling as well with their lines. Sometimes lines are set to purposely bait action all on one side and hope that side doesn't cover.
While that is a general goal the books shoot for, the books are known for gambling as well with their lines. Sometimes lines are set to purposely bait action all on one side and hope that side doesn't cover.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:10 pm to The Mick
Ask Bruce A Marshall
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:17 pm to goldennugget
I figured the even money thing had to be a bit of a myth when you sometimes see in the news stories about how Vegas took it in the shorts on a game.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:29 pm to Bunk Moreland
Obviously, a lot of y'all don't actually bet on games with these answers. Notice this year during football season the breakdown of money on certain games. You will have 80-90 % of money on one team and the line may not move or may move a 1/2 point. If Vegas truly wanted 50/50, this wouldn't be the case. I think on Vegas odds you can see last year lines and notice the same thing.
In some cases, you may have 70% of money on one side and the line will move to the team only getting 30%. This is called reverse line movement.
In some cases, you may have 70% of money on one side and the line will move to the team only getting 30%. This is called reverse line movement.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:31 pm to The Mick
In theory yes but usually Vegas ends up pulling for the underdog because Americans typically bet on the favorite.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 9:34 pm to The Mick
yes, vegas wants to pull max profits with minimum risk...and they do so by giving the same $ value to winners as they take from loosers...their game is skimming a certain percentage off the top of both.
their game would be to get the max dollars bet no matter who the dollars are bet on.
their game would be to get the max dollars bet no matter who the dollars are bet on.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:05 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:In the long run, there really isn't much risk.
Which part of eliminating risk and collecting millions or billions worth of juice "sounds dumb"?
You're basically arguing to eliminate "all" risk for small returns over very, and very little risk for big returns. And again, I'd argue over the long run it's really not risky at all.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:08 pm to slackster
quote:
They don't pull these numbers out of their arse.
They have a mathematical formula for that. It's still a bullshite number. Lines don't just move on money either. Sometimes it's injuries, sometimes it's something that the public isn't privy to.
Believe it or not on certain games Vegas is taking a side, and more often than not they are on the right side.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:08 pm to The Mick
It seems like they bait the public sometimes. Arkansas +9.5 at Auburn last year was one of them. So was Green Bay +6.5 in the NFCCG. They had to make a killing on those games.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:09 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:Great comparison
Your way of thinking reminds me of an old college buddy that thought he was going to make a killing being a bookie. Instead of getting even bets and collecting the juice, he decided to layoff bets he thought would lose to other bookies and keep the ones he thought would win. It only took about 2-3 weeks before he was begging ppl for money to pay his bills.
The public overwhelmingly loves betting chalk on a side. Why would a book want 50/50 when they can make a killing taking advantage of the public?
You have experts who are infinitely better at this than the public and you're advocating not using their expertise to your advantage.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:12 pm to JetFuelTyga
quote:
Vegas lines are predictions of game outcomes.
Yeah, no they aren't.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:15 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:
Your way of thinking reminds me of an old college buddy that thought he was going to make a killing being a book
Your buddy had no business being a bookie. He was gambling while booking which means he wasn't in it for the money. The hardest part about being a bookie is having the funds to start up and being able to ride out the waves of paying out. And also making sure you collect.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:17 pm to NYCAuburn
quote:You are slightly out of your element. Even if Vegas ONLY offered MLs, they would still be making money. For example the corresponding ML for a -300 fav is only like +220.
If there werent odds or points it would be just winners if the event/bet is won and would be an even prize. $100 bet, $100 prize(plus your bet). The points and odds drive the betting to both sides, hence 50/50 bets ideally
IE LSU 30 point favorite over La Tech. If they didnt care about 50/50 bets, then it would just be on the winner of the game. They put points on it, so you get people to bet on La Tech
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:20 pm to Spankum
quote:Not really, certainly not in all cases.
and they do so by giving the same $ value to winners as they take from loosers...their game is skimming a certain percentage off the top of both.
If you think Vegas is shooting for 50/50, you're basically arguing that Vegas has experts who dedicate their lives to this, algorithms, way more resources than the general public, but willy nilly decide that they don't think they can beat the public at this game. On what planet is that the most profitable play?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 10:25 pm to wildtigercat93
quote:
That's not what he's talking about
There are a select group of people called sharps that vegas uses to create and adjust lines.
You know where JG77056 works right?
Posted on 8/14/17 at 11:33 pm to OweO
You have no idea what you are talking about
Posted on 8/15/17 at 10:32 am to BPTiger
quote:
and I can't imagine that they could get away with doing that.
You don't need to imagine. That's how it's been done since the beginning of time.
So, I can go to Vegas, give my money to a bookie and say I want to bet on Team X plus 7 points, he can take my money and then, the next day or anytime up until the game, he can unilaterally change my bet so that I'm only getting 6 points instead of 7? Seriously?
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