DFW Nasty Weather Outlook on 6/23 (Sunday)

quote:

---

As mentioned in posts from earlier this afternoon, sinking air in the wake of our little MCV we saw earlier today should prevent storms from moving into the Metroplex tonight.

A potentially complex situation is developing for late Sunday afternoon and evening as strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to sweep across much of north Texas (including nearly 100% of the Metroplex).

There are two possible weather scenarios for tomorrow: (1) A squall line organizes to the NW late tomorrow afternoon and sweeps SE into the Metroplex tomorrow evening; (2) A separate cluster of storms also moves into SE Oklahoma and NE Texas and moves S merging with the squall line coming in from the NW.

Of these 2 scenarios, the first one is almost guaranteed to happen. The second scenario is merely "likely" rather than guaranteed.

Regardless of whether scenario 2 occurs, scenario 1 will have torrential rain, pea to tennis ball hail (mostly pea to golf ball, however), 40 to 70 mph winds gusts, and brief tornado spinups possible with some - BUT NOT ALL - of the storms. The most intense storms will be the ones that can remain isolated and detached from the squall line before everything merges into one big mess Sunday evening.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.10" to locally over 4 inches with flash flooding possible in the extreme downpour areas. If scenario 2 also occurs, the potential for more numerous flooding events will go up.

I have drained BOTH ponds sending 100,000 gallons of water to the wetlands in preparation for the possibility that both scenarios play out. You see, if I did not drain them, the squall line and the other storm cluster would merge precisely over Kaufman County.

How's that for the scientific method!

---