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Started By
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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:29 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:29 pm to LegendInMyMind
Keep thinking of Lili here.
Really hope it ends up doing a similar collapse.
Really hope it ends up doing a similar collapse.
3
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:30 pm to Fratigerguy
quote:
And nearly every model shows that this isn’t the case.
Right... And before every model showed that wasn’t the case. Just saying it’s a possibility and people may need to start preparing as soon as tomorrow or Wednesday for hurricane impacts later this week
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:31 pm to Duke
Would be nice, comparatively speaking. The trend of storms strengthening at landfall this year still bothers me though. I don’t think it would strengthen but rather not fill in as drastically as one would think
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:31 pm to Duke
quote:
Really hope it ends up doing a similar collapse.
Here's to hoping. I'm not ready to bet the farm on it yet, though. Let's see where it tops out and how fast it is moving when it makes that turn north.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:32 pm to Duke
quote:
Keep thinking of Lili here.
Ah, October of 2002, I remember it well
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:33 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Here's to hoping. I'm not ready to bet the farm on it yet, though.
Not even close to making that bet for sure. I'll settle for weakening on approach at this point.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:34 pm to rds dc
Weather guy David Bernard on fox 8 Nola said the turn will be crucial.
Wednesday afternoon cat3 with turn expected mid day thrs and reduce back down to cat2 with landfall mid la coast low cat2 Friday mid day based on nhc projection now. Again, when that turn happens is key.
Speed of movement is relevant as a fast mover Over cooler water won’t be as relevant on intensity.
Wind shear is another factor. When will the stronger shear in the north gulf impact it? That’s his question.
Closed out with:
He said that he’s very concerned about this one. He’s speaking from the viewpoint of Nola so take that into account
FWIW- not intended to scare or minimize anything. Just reporting what a respected weather man said.
Wednesday afternoon cat3 with turn expected mid day thrs and reduce back down to cat2 with landfall mid la coast low cat2 Friday mid day based on nhc projection now. Again, when that turn happens is key.
Speed of movement is relevant as a fast mover Over cooler water won’t be as relevant on intensity.
Wind shear is another factor. When will the stronger shear in the north gulf impact it? That’s his question.
Closed out with:
He said that he’s very concerned about this one. He’s speaking from the viewpoint of Nola so take that into account
FWIW- not intended to scare or minimize anything. Just reporting what a respected weather man said.
This post was edited on 10/5/20 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:36 pm to SlidellCajun
you're a Fox8 guy? No WWL?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:36 pm to SlidellCajun
Everyone should be very concerned about this storm. People thinking there’s some magical shield around SELA or that the NHC is just gonna be wrong or the cone will just shift away from them is wishcasting and doing it idiotically. What we know as of right now is that SWLA to MS should be on very high alert for the possibility of a major hurricane.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:37 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
people may need to start preparing as soon as tomorrow or Wednesday for hurricane impacts later this week
You don’t say? Way to go out on a limb here.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:37 pm to SlidellCajun
Issac and Cindy showed it only takes a well put together Cat 1 to turn the NOLA area upside down for a week.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:38 pm to LaBR4
Sure. I like wwl
Especially Alexandra cranford but find myself distracted at times
Especially Alexandra cranford but find myself distracted at times
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:39 pm to rmnldr
quote:
What we know as of right now is that SWLA to MS should be on very high alert for the possibility of a major hurricane.
should SWLA to MS also be on high alert for sprinkles and 40 mph winds? because that is roughly the same percentage chance of happening
the doomer porn posts need to stop this far out.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:40 pm to Fratigerguy
I’m talking north of I-12Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:40 pm to DVinBR
quote:
GFS hates SELA right now
Slightly stronger, slower and westward. Not by much but worth noting.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:41 pm to Duke
This study may shed some light on the setup for Delta and the possibility of it maintaining strength at landfall, even with low SSTs.
Research reveals new theory on hurricane formation and intensification
Research reveals new theory on hurricane formation and intensification
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
Did I Miss the bingo card?
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:45 pm to rocket31
quote:
should SWLA to MS also be on high alert for sprinkles and 40 mph winds? because that is roughly the same percentage chance of happening
the doomer porn posts need to stop this far out.
Better to be prepared and nothing happen vs the opposite
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:46 pm to LegendInMyMind
That plays well with the Lili idea too. IIRC it was dry air that got into the storm and ate it up to cause the collapse.
Posted on 10/5/20 at 5:47 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Is it?
they nailed Gustav like 6 days out.
ironically hit a very similar spot.
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