re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

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A Cat 3 in the central GOM seems to be the base prediction, at this point.

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Yes and with the pressure coming in much lower than estimated, RI is very plausible with this small, organized center.
Running into the Yucatán is a possible limiting factor. Other than that the recipe I’d there for a major.

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They wont shift cone that far west

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Look at you; an expert in all things now. Proud of you ole buddy

Get that commie bastard out of here!

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I'm getting married on Sunday on the MS coast

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1st off, congratulations!

2nd off, WTF is going on? You getting married, Duke having kids... Les Miles has lost control of the hurricane thread posters

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Recon finding 984 mb already.

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Not good at all

Euro is obsessed with keeping this weak

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SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

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With the earlier center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is
a somewhat uncertain 280/6 kt. Delta is expected to resume a
west-northwestward motion later today. A northwestward heading
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin
tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After
that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the south-central United States, which should weaken the
western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to
accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south and west of the previous advisory during the first
couple of days, primarily due to the recent center re-formation and
more southward initial position. After that time, the NHC track is
not much different than the previous forecast and lies near the
center of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope.

Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment
during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for
significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity
forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat
surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower
this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid
intensification index support the higher than climatological rate
of intensification. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear
and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to
induce some weakening later in the period. The updated NHC
intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 48-60 hours, but is similar to the previous advisory
thereafter.

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This mother frickers coming. NO has dodged to many so far.

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Euro is obsessed with keeping this weak

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Then I'm team Euro. 2020 just needs to end.

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You see when a man loves a woman...

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