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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:49 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
144148 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:49 pm to
quote:

You're actually not entirely wrong. Hurricanes exist in the first place for carrying excessive heat from the equator towards the north pole

more glacial melt incoming



thanks Delta
Posted by LPLGTiger
Member since May 2013
2307 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:49 pm to
That’s a steep shift N on that track.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13092 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:51 pm to
The H moved from the left of the 90 West longitude line to right over the 90 West longitude line.

The center of the cone goes from Caminada Pass to just east of the Alliance refinery to just east of Belle Chasse NAS to English Turn to just south of the Michoud facility.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20618 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:54 pm to
Complicated forecast with models indicating that we will likely see a binary interaction b/w Gamma and Delta. This interaction depends on how close the systems get and how strong they are at the time. As of now, NHC isn't really showing any such interaction.



The 18z GFS shows a weaker Gamma and the 18z GFS-para shows a stronger Gamma.

18z GFS



18z GFS-para



Ultimately, the overall pattern will send the system(s) north towards Louisiana.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
144148 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:55 pm to
I like to look at things in checkpoints... where is the storm at when it hits certain points

like for future-Delta... the major checkpoint for us on the northern Gulf coast is where does the storm enter the Gulf

going off that Levi's been saying... Louisiana needs it to be as east as possible... so Louisianans want to cheer for it to make landfall as far east into Cuba as possible

if you're in the FL panhandle, Bama, Mississippi... you want it to kick back west ad be as close to the Yucatan Peninsula as possible... interact with Gamma some and pinwheel it west a bit before it makes its final approach which will kick landfall back deep into Louisiana
This post was edited on 10/4/20 at 10:00 pm
Posted by questionable
FL
Member since Apr 2008
1192 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:56 pm to
They can’t even come close to predicting a landfall spot 48 hours out, might as well start looking at the center of the cone now.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66611 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 9:59 pm to
quote:

They can’t even come close to predicting a landfall spot 48 hours out

I realize people like to shite on the NHC, or "They", but this isn't anywhere at all accurate.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
144148 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:01 pm to
quote:

I realize people like to shite on the NHC, or "They", but this isn't anywhere at all accurate.

how long has the NHC been trying to tell us to not look at the center line but just realize that if you're anywhere in the cone that you're under threat?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66611 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

how long has the NHC been trying to tell us to not look at the center line but just realize that if you're anywhere in the cone that you're under threat?

Like that matters to most people. That center line is all that matters. Not that it should be that way.
This post was edited on 10/4/20 at 10:04 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20618 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:06 pm to
HWRF drops this to sub 950 over the next 48hrs with a classic pinhole eye, if this forecast verifies... then wow.

Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30131 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:07 pm to
Nope. I will not acknowledge that forecast.
Posted by bigberg2000
houston, from chalmette
Member since Sep 2005
70426 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:11 pm to
It’s because they all think news is “fake” with an agenda even with storms. They do their best.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
17900 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:11 pm to
Can’t say that I’ve ever seen a model show two storms circling each other like that.

Posted by LSUneaux
New Orleans
Member since Mar 2014
4688 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:12 pm to
I wish the NHC would stop publishing center lines. It is highly misleading with impacts.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:12 pm to
Pretty classic spot for it to happen this time of year. We watched Gamma feast on that water for not very long and was clearly running at getting to hurricane. I fully expect it to pop off at that point.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20618 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

Pretty classic spot for it to happen this time of year. We watched Gamma feast on that water for not very long and was clearly running at getting to hurricane. I fully expect it to pop off at that point.


Wilma like?
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43473 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:21 pm to
Thats seriously some 2020 shite.


Is there any idea how this interaction could inhibit or aid intensification for whatever Frankenstein storm someone will get, or is it just too up in the air to know?
This post was edited on 10/4/20 at 10:21 pm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
125759 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

Wilma like?


Bingo?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:28 pm to
quote:

Wilma like?


I'd be impressed if it did THAT, but yes that's what I'm thinking of. It has a window to really pop.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20618 posts
Posted on 10/4/20 at 10:31 pm to
quote:

quote:
Wilma like?


Bingo?



Wilma went from gaining hurricane status to breaking the record 24hrs later. Truly insane and impossible to forecast. The 00z SHIPS shows some pretty crazy RI potential as this moves into the Southern Gulf.

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