re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Am I reading this right? Dallas has back-pedaled on May 20th and say it's actually April 30th?

Must've had some powerful people get pretty angry.

LINK

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To all the people who laughed at the idea that these governors would keep pushing back the date again and again...

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I still don't believe it will happen

But congrats, I guess

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Grievous Angel

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These comments aren't directed towards you and are just a couple of comments on this model that people keep posting.



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First the good, they are updating the model daily with new data. I've seen some people claim that all these models are worthless b/c researchers aren't using near real time data and that is absolutely incorrect.

Now some of the things that I take issue with.

- The model appears to be another example of the failure of Farr's Law. Not wanting to get deep into this but Farr's Law application to AIDS is a classic example of this that has been well studied. You don't typically see a rise, peak, and then decline back to "0" in the early stages of a pandemic.





- Their assumptions on Social Distancing don't really seem realistic or at lest don't match what we are seeing in the US.

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Does your model show the effect of social distancing and other measures?

The model includes the effects of social distancing measures implemented at the “first administrative level” (in the US this generally means the state level) and assumes continued social distancing through the end of the modeled period (August 4, 2020). We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates.

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If I'm reading that correct, they are indicating that the model is run on the assumption that within 7 days the entire US will be deploying all Level 4 countermeasures, image above.

- They assume that this Social Distancing regime will allow for 97% of the US to stay infection free. This appears to be Chinese level type efficiency, which we now know is based on a fantasy produced by the CCP.

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Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

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- They wait until the FAQ question, which few people will ever dig down in, to point out that they are modeling the 1st wave.

TL,DR - this model is a decent "rule of thumb" type tool that is being updated daily with new data but it is probably overly optimistic in the effectiveness of social distancing.

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. For those of you rooting for me in my time of need I am anxious to report an oxygen saturation of 96%. Still waiting on the blood gas test of actual blood oxygen levels. There is talk of sending me home. If the level can get up to 98 I know they will but they are considering it right now to make room for other people in need just in case. I am so happy. I would be quarantined at home until I have two negative results later but I would take it. Still having some minor ekg problems but they think its because of the malaria meds etc. The doctor knows how bad I want to go home so we are gonna talk about it when he makes his rounds. I am close anyway.

I can't stress enough the good it's done me to read this thread and see you guys genuinely care for my well being and rooting for me to get better. It gives me strength and even more motivation to fight. The doctor said you guys legitimately helped my recovery move as fast as it has. I will never forget it even when I get trolled during our next football season (please be this year).

I am always willing to answer questions about my treatment etc or happy to give my opinion about this disease. I am forever in your debt. Roll Tide and stay safe everyone.

Let's go!

Awesome!!

Looks like Italy might finally be over the hump.

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#BREAKING Italy's intensive care virus cases drop for first time: officials

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Whew! What an ordeal, man- for you and your family. I’m happy you had such great care and recovered as we knew you would.

Probably not enough data yet on illness onset or even date specimen taken for positive results (at least published publicly), but is any site using confirmed cases and their known illness onset dates or specimen date if onset not known to adjust their predictions & predictive slopes or are they using reporting dates of positive results when adjusting (on top of changes in behavior).

CDC still has a chart updating confirmed cases for illness onset or date specimen taken (started to allow for specimen date last week probably in part because they stopped being sent samples & tests to confirm on March 14th). It was always behind official number, but is even more so since 14th. They have only added around 63,000 since 14th out of the over 270,000 positive cases.

Where it stands just having dates for 63,995 confirmed cases as of April 3rd’s update is that the US had 26 cases by end of Jan; 832 cases by end of Feb; 3,551 cases by March 7th (test results tracker site had us at 341); 17,632 cases by March 14th (test tracker had us at 2,450); and by March 21st (which if using specimen date added cases in week would include many sick already before week began) we had 47,553 cases (test tracker had us at 23,203). Updates will probably add more to weeks 2 and 3 of March as this week has increases to January and February on top of March increases (just much smaller).

Even only doing portion of current cases and last week starting to revert to specimen date if onset not clear It shows what most expected that we had a lot more cases in first 2 weeks of March already sick much less infected without symptoms yet than test results known at the time.