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3
Posted on 3/14/20 at 11:59 am to LNCHBOX
So I just wanted to chime in and say, that I do think density does have an effect on mortality in this scenario.
Because, as has been noted, one of the biggest concerns leading to death has been lack of sufficient healthcare due to an overwhelmed system. So if a city is more dense, and so the virus transmits faster, the healthcare system could potentially be overwhelmed. And so compared to a more rural location with slower transmission, that healthcare system may not be overwhelmed.
And so I think that could be the tipping point where you see an increase in mortality due to density.
Thanks for your time
Because, as has been noted, one of the biggest concerns leading to death has been lack of sufficient healthcare due to an overwhelmed system. So if a city is more dense, and so the virus transmits faster, the healthcare system could potentially be overwhelmed. And so compared to a more rural location with slower transmission, that healthcare system may not be overwhelmed.
And so I think that could be the tipping point where you see an increase in mortality due to density.
Thanks for your time
Posted on 3/14/20 at 11:59 am to WaWaWeeWa
Wawa, Spain just announced national lockdown. Trump already mentioned restricting travel in certain regions. How far out do you think we are from the same?
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:03 pm to DollaChoppa
Yup. Within two weeks our healthcare system cross the country will be in huge trouble. All hospitals will be going crazy trying to treat people. That's when the real shite will hit. Yes we are trying to prepare but there is only so much we can do. There are like 1,700 cases across the country as of today. Within two weeks you can add at least 50,000 more will have it.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:03 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
And so compared to a more rural location with slower transmission, that healthcare system may not be overwhelmed.
Rural areas also have much smaller hospitals and there's no other nearby hospital to help if it gets out of control. You have one church gathering where someone goes sick and you've turned a rural county into a hotspot that would overwhelm a rural hospital.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:04 pm to rds dc
quote:
President Trump says he is considering potential domestic travel restrictions involving at risk areas due to coronavirus.
I don't understand the logic behind thinking about travel restrictions but not putting them into place.
In theory, you'd want to stop the spread sooner rather than later, right? So if the possibility is out there, wouldn't it be more prudent to do so earlier rather than later?
Obviously there are so many ripple effects for travel bans, but in the case of slowing spread, the sooner the better.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:05 pm to dukke v
quote:
Yup. Within two weeks our healthcare system cross the country will be in huge trouble. All hospitals will be going crazy trying to treat people. That's when the real shite will hit. Yes we are trying to prepare but there is only so much we can do. There are like 1,700 cases across the country as of today. Within two weeks you can add at least 50,000 more will have it.
In two weeks a lot of people who thought all this is an overreaction will see what the fuss was about.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:06 pm to dukke v
quote:
Yup. Within two weeks our healthcare system cross the country will be in huge trouble. All hospitals will be going crazy trying to treat people. That's when the real shite will hit. Yes we are trying to prepare but there is only so much we can do. There are like 1,700 cases across the country as of today. Within two weeks you can add at least 50,000 more will have it.
quote:
dukke v
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:07 pm to SCTmo
quote:
I don't understand the logic behind thinking about travel restrictions but not putting them into place.
Unless you want to restrict all travel you have to identify the hotspot areas. We haven't done enough testing to identify these as of yet, with few exceptions.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:08 pm to rds dc
Shutting down domestic air travel is key to containing this and should have already been done. Cargo transit can still go on.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:08 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
Because, as has been noted, one of the biggest concerns leading to death has been lack of sufficient healthcare due to an overwhelmed system. So if a city is more dense, and so the virus transmits faster, the healthcare system could potentially be overwhelmed.
I completely agree with that. But I didn’t get the vibe that he was arguing that.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:10 pm to slacker00
quote:
We haven't done enough testing to identify these as of yet, with few exceptions
Right, be we do know a few hotspots, right? So start with those?
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:10 pm to WaWaWeeWa
I’m going to be pissed if the administration bails out the airline industry. frick them.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:10 pm to Malik Agar
Sure, I considered that. But I also don’t have any facts or stats to back up if the beds per capita in a rural area are higher or lower than beds per capita in a urban area. I just think most people generally accept that the chance and likely hold of it spreading faster is higher in a denser area. And I also am assuming it isn’t a linear relationship. Ie id presume that in an area twice as dense, the virus is more likely to spread more than twice as fast. Because that makes sense to me, as a data nerd.
As for the “one church, everyone gets sick” scenario. I can’t really say much to that. You can always come up with some specific worst case situation to argue against it.
As for the “one church, everyone gets sick” scenario. I can’t really say much to that. You can always come up with some specific worst case situation to argue against it.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:10 pm to hombreman9
quote:
Wawa, Spain just announced national lockdown. Trump already mentioned restricting travel in certain regions. How far out do you think we are from the same?
I really don’t think my guess on something like that is better than anyone else’s. But it’s my personal opinion that something resembling quarantines will happen.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:12 pm to SCTmo
quote:
In theory, you'd want to stop the spread sooner rather than later, right? So if the possibility is out there, wouldn't it be more prudent to do so earlier rather than later?
We can’t stop the spread now. But we can reduce the peak. That’s all we are trying to accomplish.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:12 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Yea, not sure if that is his reasoning for it. If someone were to argue that density increases mortality where all the other factors like healthcare capacity don’t matter, i wouldn’t agree.
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:14 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
BREAKING: Italy reports 3,497 new cases of coronavirus and 175 new deaths, raising total to 21,157 cases and 1,441 dead
Posted on 3/14/20 at 12:14 pm to rds dc
Update from Italy in, pretty significant drop in deaths from 250 reported yesterday to 175 today.
Italy - 21,157 cases, 1,441 (+175) deaths, nCFR - 6.8%
Italy - 21,157 cases, 1,441 (+175) deaths, nCFR - 6.8%
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