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Message
1
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:46 am to NYNolaguy1
Even in countries where they have done extensive testing, there will still be asymptomatic and mild cases that go untested. And there's way too many variables regarding health care in those other countries to try to extrapolate mortality rates in the US.
I agree that it's all guestimates at this point, and while the difference between a 1% mortality rate and a 0.7% mortality rate might now sound like a lot, if you're talking about worst case scenarios of 40-50% of the US population becoming infected, that a difference of 500K deaths.
I think the mortality rate is closer to 0.5% than it is to 1%, but again, that's a guess based on my belief that there are a large number of untested and unnoticed mild and asymptomatic cases.
I agree that it's all guestimates at this point, and while the difference between a 1% mortality rate and a 0.7% mortality rate might now sound like a lot, if you're talking about worst case scenarios of 40-50% of the US population becoming infected, that a difference of 500K deaths.
I think the mortality rate is closer to 0.5% than it is to 1%, but again, that's a guess based on my belief that there are a large number of untested and unnoticed mild and asymptomatic cases.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:47 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Well, I showed that you're wrong with math, so you're not doing the same thing.
You realize I never said we wouldn't hit 100 by summer, right? I only said the US hasn't had 40 deaths in 1 week since the virus was confirmed to be here.
If you're going to call someone out, be sure you're keeping up.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:48 am to RB10
quote:
What? Those 40 deaths have already caused panic.
No. That isn't what is causing the panic.
The projections of millions dying is causing panic.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:48 am to RB10
quote:
You realize I never said we wouldn't hit 100 by summer, right?
SO then you were in fact just cluttering the thread with nothing.
quote:
f you're going to call someone out, be sure you're keeping up.
And if you're here to actually talk about anything, maybe try doing that.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:49 am to Salmon
quote:
I don't think 40 deaths is going to cause anyone to panic, but hey, you do you, Mr. Hero.
Not cause a panic? Have you seen what the frick is going on everywhere? Sports? Travel? Recreation? Grocery Stores?
Im not saying its warranted to be act like there has been no panic is being pretty fricking dense.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:49 am to LNCHBOX
St. Charles Parish makes the team. Moving west
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 9:50 am
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:49 am to GatorReb
quote:
Not cause a panic? Have you seen what the frick is going on everywhere? Sports? Travel? Recreation? Grocery Stores?
Im not saying its warranted to be act like there has been no panic is being pretty fricking dense.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:49 am to BRIllini07
quote:
I mentioned earlier I came back from the UK almost 2 weeks ago and have been keeping up with their progress as well, which may be valuable since they are testing a larger swath of people:
29,000 tested.
590 positive
96% mild
4% Serious
10 fatalities
18 recovered
Also currently on an exponential climb in positive cases.
LINK
quote:
96% mild
Glad the UK is putting out this information. Need more countries to do this.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:50 am to RB10
quote:
I only said the US hasn't had 40 deaths in 1 week since the virus was confirmed to be here.
And you were right.
We have only had 30 deaths in the last week. I messed up my number. I apologized and gave you your win.
Let's move on.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:50 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Almost as if I want him to stand behind his total bat shite number or get him to leave the thread.
but its not his number.
the person whose number it is is quoted.
you want to make it personal.
go ahead and regale us with your numbers.
no bet. just say your piece. we bookmark.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 9:52 am
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:51 am to GatorReb
quote:
Im not saying its warranted to be act like there has been no panic is being pretty fricking dense.
Again. The 40 deaths isn't what is causing the panic.
It's the projections of millions dying that is causing the panic.
Come on, people.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:51 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
SO then you were in fact just cluttering the thread with nothing.
I was pointing out that the 40 deaths in one week is an inaccurate statement.
Would you care to explain how that's any different than what you've been doing?
quote:
And if you're here to actually talk about anything, maybe try doing that.
I'd say talking about the actual death rate per week is more relevant than the bullshite you've been doing.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:51 am to HerkFlyer
quote:100% agreed.
That really is great, but I'm more afraid of the economic hole we've dug for ourselves than the actual virus at this point.
When it is all said and done, and all the data comes in showing CFR of 2X the flu, the people who lose their jobs over the hysteria are going to be the hardest hit.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:51 am to CelticDog
quote:
but its not his number.
the person whose number it is is quoted.
What thread are you reading? He absolutely owned that number.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:52 am to CelticDog
I'd bet money that Trump has it since bolsonaro tested positive. I wonder what kind of treatments he's getting so that he can keep working his arse off.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:52 am to Salmon
quote:
Again. The 40 deaths isn't what is causing the panic.
It's the projections of millions dying that is causing the panic.
Do you understand how the current mortality rate ties into those projections?
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:52 am to Salmon
quote:
The projections of millions dying is causing panic.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:52 am to RB10
quote:
I'd say talking about the actual death rate per week is more relevant than the bullshite you've been doing.
It looks to me like you're arguing semantics at best just because you do't see eye to eye with Salmon.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:53 am to RB10
quote:
Do you understand how the current mortality rate ties into those projections?
...yes?
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