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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:49 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:49 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Yeah. It's probably impossible to track every contact like that, but you see how quickly it becomes impossible if you're chasing contacts that got infected and started their own trails.
0
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:49 pm to LSU1018
Seems like I read somewhere she was 39? But don't quote me.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:49 pm to Burhead
Yikes. So she could have been exposed as early as 2/1 by an unknown carrier? That means patient zero could have been in California going around unnoticed since early to mid January. That’s assuming one generation.
I can’t imagine how many cases haven’t been tested because they “didn’t meet criteria”. Ridiculous.
I can’t imagine how many cases haven’t been tested because they “didn’t meet criteria”. Ridiculous.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:51 pm to jennBN
I've already accepted the fact that I'll probably get it. My only questions now are when and how bad it will be.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:53 pm to Malik Agar
Well the Pope may have it now
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:53 pm to jennBN
quote:
How concerned would you be about working in a local hospital tomorrow?
Tomorrow? Slightly puckered.
In a month? Well puckered if the spread starts taking off rapidly. Small hospitals could be quickly overrun
The mortality rate is still low for healthcare professionals but the nightmare scenario of an over run system would make your life living hell for awhile.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:57 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Yeah. I report at 0700. Not terribly excited. Will be avoiding the lobby and cafeteria. Anywhere communal really.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:57 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Can you imagine the man hours to trace these connections and contact everyone before they potentially infect someone else?
That’s not the problem.
The problem is whatever fraction that become infected, and their contacts.
It’s been ticking for a week already. Theoretically we could be entering the third generation in the next few days.
Even ignoring other potential cases, outside of a Hurculean effort and some luck....i think it might be clearly broken out.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:58 pm to jennBN
Make sure to take your airborne. 
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:59 pm to jennBN
quote:
How concerned would you be about working in a local hospital tomorrow?
I don't mean this to sound insensitive, but wouldn't proper hygiene alleviate the vast majority of concerns? Bring your own lunch and a mask and it seems like you'd have little to worry about.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 7:59 pm to frankthetank
time to invest in campbells soup, ibuprofen, and disinfecting products for when the spreading takes over the usa
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:00 pm to jennBN
jennBN says she was 39.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:00 pm to Volvagia
The UC Davis student and dormitory exposure isn't reassuring either.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:01 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Sounds like Israel may have a vaccine soon...
LINK
Anybody else think it’s ironic that Israel might save thousands or more of Iranian lives with this?
LINK
quote:
Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.
quote:
For the past four years, a team of MIGAL scientists has been developing a vaccine against infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which causes a bronchial disease affecting poultry. The effectiveness of the vaccine has been proven in preclinical trials carried out at the Veterinary Institute.
quote:
“Let’s call it pure luck,” he said. “We decided to choose coronavirus as a model for our system just as a proof of concept for our technology.” But after scientists sequenced the DNA of the novel coronavirus causing the current worldwide outbreak, the MIGAL researchers examined it and found that the poultry coronavirus has high genetic similarity to the human one, and that it uses the same infection mechanism, which increases the likelihood of achieving an effective human vaccine in a very short period of time, Katz said.
Anybody else think it’s ironic that Israel might save thousands or more of Iranian lives with this?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:01 pm to jeffsdad
quote:
jennBN says she was 39.
ISWYDT
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:02 pm to Volvagia
quote:
That’s not the problem.
The problem is whatever fraction that become infected, and their contacts.
It’s been ticking for a week already. Theoretically we could be entering the third generation in the next few days.
Even ignoring other potential cases, outside of a Hurculean effort and some luck....i think it might be clearly broken out.
So what is your opinion and odds on this case being the one that causes this to jump containment here in the states?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:02 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The mortality rate is still low for healthcare professionals but the nightmare scenario of an over run system would make your life living hell for awhile.
I thought it was interesting to hear the CDC director say the massive containment efforts in hospitals would are only going to happen early in any outbreak. If/when it becomes widespread, it will be treated like the seasonal flu. Providers may wear PPE, but the overall experience won't be what it is right now.
I know you're talking more generally about capacity, but just a note that I found interesting.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:03 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:I am curious if there has been a spike in respiratory related critical care cases or deaths over that time in that area.
Yikes. So she could have been exposed as early as 2/1 by an unknown carrier? That means patient zero could have been in California going around unnoticed since early to mid January. That’s assuming one generation.
I can’t imagine how many cases haven’t been tested because they “didn’t meet criteria”. Ridiculous.
Considering that this case could not be the only one who was infected by “patient zero”, if the mortality rate is as high as many believe, I suspect that there would have been a noticeable increase in critical care cases over that time period, especially for respiratory season.
If this is the only one that came to light, wouldn’t that be fairly reassuring?
As a side note, this flu/respiratory season has been very mild compared to previous years, at least where I am.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 8:06 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:03 pm to slackster
quote:
I don't mean this to sound insensitive, but wouldn't proper hygiene alleviate the vast majority of concerns? Bring your own lunch and a mask and it seems like you'd have little to worry about.
True. Still a little unnerving. Rarely wear a mask outside of my department but likely will tomorrow.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 8:07 pm to Burhead
quote:
So what is your opinion and odds on this case being the one that causes this to jump containment here in the states?
Less than 10%
I think it’s already there independent of this.
Remember, the patient got it from someone, who probably infected others.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 8:10 pm
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