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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:49 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:49 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I’m not sure the R0 of SARS is really comparable. I think that remains to be seen as we learn more about asymptomatic carriers. SARS was eventually stopped through containment and strict tracking, it never reached sustained community spread. We aren’t there yet but that is what everyone is afraid of.
That's kind of my point.
People talking about R0 and CFR and trying to extrapolate it to the seasonal flu are making some major leaps of faith.
0
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:50 pm to slackster
quote:
I know I've made a ton of influenza comparisons, and I'll do it again - if you have the chance to basically stomp out a flu strain before it ever gets going, you should do it. In that light, these efforts are understandable, but on the surface it seems like a ton of overkill.
That seems a reasonable conclusion. Do you think the Chinese are operating with that sort of foresight in mind as their primary motivation here?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:52 pm to 1BamaRTR
quote:
Hell no. People would be rioting here in the US. The government in China can mostly do as they please.
I agree, I was just thinking out loud. If you made me commit to a plan right now I would probably stop all non essential international travel in order to make tracking easier. Buy time for warmer weather and testing of Remdesivir, Chloroquine, and other anti virals. But I don’t have a huge stake in the stock market. I could see how your persepective would be different if you did.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 5:54 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:54 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
or they've found a cure and put it in the water.
Where do you come up with this shite?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:56 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Where do you come up with this shite?
A certain amount of reading between the lines is useful on the internet. I don't use emoticons much, but imagine one of these after that part.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 5:59 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:56 pm to wdhalgren
It's hard to trust the Chinese numbers - despite claims to the contrary, I have never accepted them blindly. I simply don't believe it's intentionally being underreported anymore than the CDC is intentionally underreporting numbers here. I've said continuously to look at the international numbers instead, and those tell a complicated story at this point. 92 cases in Hong Kong, 96 cases in Singapore, and 655 cases in Italy?
Anyway, I think it's plausible they were able to keep the cases "confined" to Wuhan, but I say that loosely - there are/were 13k cases inside of China but outside of Wuhan. There are fewer than 5,000 cases in the rest of the world right now.
Anyway, I think it's plausible they were able to keep the cases "confined" to Wuhan, but I say that loosely - there are/were 13k cases inside of China but outside of Wuhan. There are fewer than 5,000 cases in the rest of the world right now.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:59 pm to WaWaWeeWa
It literally has nothing to do with this virus, and the research doesn’t really translate over other than tell us what we already knew. This was done before the outbreak even happened.
Coronaviruses didn’t become a scientific interest December of last year
Coronaviruses didn’t become a scientific interest December of last year
Posted on 2/27/20 at 5:59 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
That seems a reasonable conclusion. Do you think the Chinese are operating with that sort of foresight in mind as their primary motivation here?
I think very few (zero) governments are operating with that primary concern, including our own.
I watched Trump's presser yesterday - his primary concern is the stock market, and he'll downplay this as long as he can in that respect.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:02 pm to slackster
quote:
Anyway, I think it's plausible they were able to keep the cases "confined" to Wuhan, but I say that loosely - there are/were 13k cases inside of China but outside of Wuhan. There are fewer than 5,000 cases in the rest of the world right now.
Anything's possible. But I have trouble believing that they essentially managed to halt the spread of virus this quickly. If it's less contagious than suspected maybe, but then I can't understand the high Wuhan data>
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:03 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Could we pull off something like that globally if other countries continue to worsen?
No. It’s as simple as that.
Even if San Francisco was on literal fire, and Trump tried to excert executive powers to contain it, someone somewhere tore up with TDS would seek an injunction from a federal judge.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:08 pm to Volvagia
Breaking: Nigeria has confirmed its first case of Coronavirus, it has now reached Africa.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:09 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Anything's possible. But I have trouble believing that they essentially managed to halt the spread of virus this quickly. If it's less contagious than suspected maybe, but then I can't understand the high Wuhan data>
I really don't know enough about the travel patterns and such to explain it all away. I agree with you they seem disproportionally high in Wuhan, but they did take some pretty impressive measures.
I find it fascinating how these things spread with global travel. Nearly 3% of total SARS cases were in Canada and Singapore, yet combined they make up fewer than 3% of COVID-19 cases.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:09 pm to Man With A Plan
Nigeria is a bad country for it to hit
Large economy that has lots of international trade
Large economy that has lots of international trade
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:11 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
The Honourable Minister of Health has announced a confirmed coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case in Lagos State
The case, which was confirmed on the 27th of February 2020, is the first case to be reported in Nigeria since the beginning of the outbreak in China in January 2020
LINK
This is what many have feared it has confirmed spread to Africa.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:12 pm to Man With A Plan
quote:
Breaking: Nigeria has confirmed its first case of Coronavirus, it has now reached Africa.
FWIW, Egypt had a case nearly 2 weeks ago. Algeria also had a case a couple days ago.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:13 pm to slackster
I guess we could say sub-Suharan Africa then. The area that still believes in witches and stuff.
But hey, we have anti-vaxxers and the like so how much better are we?
But hey, we have anti-vaxxers and the like so how much better are we?
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 6:15 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:14 pm to Man With A Plan
There was already a case in Egypt. I think this is the 2nd African case.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:15 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I don’t have a huge stake in the stock market. I could see how your persepective would be different if you did.
Define "huge"?
You're right though. Someone like Trump is in a tight spot. You've got to weigh what to do vs your re-election hopes. Fair or not, an economic slowdown undoubtedly hurts his chances in November. He's said as much himself. Not every decision is made with human health in mind.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:15 pm to Volvagia
quote:
It literally has nothing to do with this virus, and the research doesn’t really translate over other than tell us what we already knew. This was done before the outbreak even happened.
I agree completely. I should have made it more clear. It is a coronavirus in the study, but everything else is a stretch.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 6:17 pm to Burhead
How the hell are there only 2 cases in Russia, 3 in India and the Philipines, yet 7 in Iraq and Sweden.
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