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Posted on 2/16/20 at 11:38 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
94 days?
Something isn’t right here
The asymptomatic spread seems to be confirmed. With that in mind, it's quite difficult to trace the origin of every single case.
Think about how difficult it would be to trace the origin of every sickness you get in the states.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 6:26 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
94 days?
Something isn’t right here
Isn’t that before the first known index case?
Posted on 2/17/20 at 6:34 am to Volvagia
Yes it would be. I don’t believe that, the patient must have an unreliable history. It’s too much of an outlier, and too different from any other respiratory virus we have ever seen.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 8:28 am to WaWaWeeWa
Meanwhile 14 US asymptomatic citizens are on the planes back to the USA.
Was this done to give the doctors a groups of asymptomactics to study?
One study would be the molecular makeup of the 'virus' that caused the positive tests and is everything there traceable to a single source.
Going to be interesting to hear how many days quarantine this group of 300 are going to be in for.
quote:
US officials were notified that they had tested positive for coronavirus during the evacuation process, after passengers had disembarked the ship, the agencies said in the joint statement Monday. The passengers had been tested two to three days before the evacuation flights, the statement said.
"After consultation with HHS officials, including experts from the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, the State Department made the decision to allow the 14 individuals, who were in isolation, separated from other passengers, and continued to be asymptomatic, to remain on the aircraft to complete the evacuation process," the agencies said.
Was this done to give the doctors a groups of asymptomactics to study?
One study would be the molecular makeup of the 'virus' that caused the positive tests and is everything there traceable to a single source.
Going to be interesting to hear how many days quarantine this group of 300 are going to be in for.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 9:11 am to real turf fan
I think average people are getting around to researching the Spanish Flu. The reinfection theories are a result of that. Watching the Spanish Flu data and applying it to Covid-19 will drive you mad.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 9:35 am to Dominate308
@drkuehnert
From this report on #diamondprincess
454/1,723 positive ~ 26%
19/454 critically ill ~ 4%
181/454 asymptomatic ~ 40% (!)
Leaves 254 symptomatic,
19/254 (7.5%) critically ill
Still not final outcomes but this will be an important cohort analysis on clinical spectrum of #COVID19 LINK …
From this report on #diamondprincess
454/1,723 positive ~ 26%
19/454 critically ill ~ 4%
181/454 asymptomatic ~ 40% (!)
Leaves 254 symptomatic,
19/254 (7.5%) critically ill
Still not final outcomes but this will be an important cohort analysis on clinical spectrum of #COVID19 LINK …
Posted on 2/17/20 at 9:58 am to Burhead
The WHO daily briefing says its still to early to say the decline will continue. Furthermore about 80% of cases are mild and will recover, 14% will see severe disease, including pneumonia & shortness of breath. About 5% of patients have critical disease including. respiratory failure, septic shock & multi-organ failure. Finally about 2% of those who will catch this will die and that increases with age.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 10:30 am to Burhead
So you believe the WHO’s stats which align with China’s numbers
Posted on 2/17/20 at 10:50 am to rds dc
Japan is up to 66 confirmed cases with 19 of those being critical. They have moved to community spread of the virus and are seeing more cases that can't be traced back to China or exposure to an infected individual. They have all but canceled the Tokyo Marathon allowing only 200 of the 38,000+ runners to compete. The next thing to watch is the Olympics.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 10:52 am to rds dc
Let's just go ahead and nuke China. That should be enough heat to burn away the virus. frick em all.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 10:53 am to jlc05
Well it aligns with what you are seeing on that cruise ship. 4% critical.
I would say that’s a pretty good indication that it’s accurate. The scariest aspect is the large number of asymptomatic which could explain the chaos in Wuhan. Large numbers of infected asymptomatic spreading the disease for months and a slow trickle of deaths until infected numbers rapidly accelerate and deaths start piling up rapidly.
I would say that’s a pretty good indication that it’s accurate. The scariest aspect is the large number of asymptomatic which could explain the chaos in Wuhan. Large numbers of infected asymptomatic spreading the disease for months and a slow trickle of deaths until infected numbers rapidly accelerate and deaths start piling up rapidly.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 10:56 am to rds dc
quote:
Japan is up to 66 confirmed cases with 19 of those being critical. They have moved to community spread of the virus and are seeing more cases that can't be traced back to China or exposure to an infected individual. They have all but canceled the Tokyo Marathon allowing only 200 of the 38,000+ runners to compete. The next thing to watch is the Olympics.
Not good. If we extrapolate those critical numbers back at 4% it means that there are probably about 500 cases in Japan. Half of which could be asymptomatic. It’s probably past the point of being contained.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 11:01 am to WaWaWeeWa
FWIW you are assuming 100% of asymptomatic are infectious.
It’s possible to get a positive test and never get sick or being infectious.
For all we know, even IF you reach that point, you might be infectious/asymptomatic combo for a fairly short period of time, and the data we have suggests this is the case.
It’s possible to get a positive test and never get sick or being infectious.
For all we know, even IF you reach that point, you might be infectious/asymptomatic combo for a fairly short period of time, and the data we have suggests this is the case.
This post was edited on 2/17/20 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 2/17/20 at 11:02 am to WaWaWeeWa
What use will the Malaysian case be for modeling?
The one I'm talking about is the one passenger let off the cruise ship that Cambodia let in so that the passengers could fly out and get home. And the one passenger who tested positive after landing in Malaysia (why Malaysia, the passenger is said to be an American or at least has a USA passport).
Could this be a pinpoint start to a limitable spread? Or is the state of Malaysian medicine such that we'll never know.
The one I'm talking about is the one passenger let off the cruise ship that Cambodia let in so that the passengers could fly out and get home. And the one passenger who tested positive after landing in Malaysia (why Malaysia, the passenger is said to be an American or at least has a USA passport).
Could this be a pinpoint start to a limitable spread? Or is the state of Malaysian medicine such that we'll never know.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 11:44 am to Volvagia
Volvagia, any input on the whole ACE2 receptors and what that means for different groups of people if true?
Posted on 2/17/20 at 12:11 pm to CivilTiger83
WOW:
quote:
New York Post
@nypost
·
18m
Director of hospital at center of China's coronavirus outbreak is dead from the illness LINK
Posted on 2/17/20 at 12:15 pm to Shane4689
quote:
Volvagia, any input on the whole ACE2 receptors and what that means for different groups of people if true?
That would explain a lot. It would be horrible but it would tie the puzzle together.
Posted on 2/17/20 at 12:52 pm to Dominate308
quote:
That would explain a lot. It would be horrible but it would tie the puzzle together.
What pieces are we trying to tie together? I think ACE is a non issue. It may explain higher infectivity but I can’t see how it would result in higher mortality.
The main reason why I don’t buy it is because the rest of China and even the East in general have higher quantities of ACE receptors. Yet we don’t see the same dramatic numbers in other areas of China as we see in Wuhan. I think Wuhan is just way ahead of the curve of this disease. Hopefully I’m wrong. Only time will tell
Posted on 2/17/20 at 1:02 pm to Shane4689
Hospital head still being resuscitatedaccording to hospital officials.
In a scenario reminiscent of the Dr. Li, the first Doctor to warn colleagues about the disease, there is some uncertainty of the Death of the head of Wuhan Hospital
Cue the Spamalot song, "I'm not dead yet" again.
In a scenario reminiscent of the Dr. Li, the first Doctor to warn colleagues about the disease, there is some uncertainty of the Death of the head of Wuhan Hospital
quote:
A Hubei health official has said the head of a Wuhan hospital is still being treated after media reported he had died of the novel coronavirus.
Dr Liu Zhiming from Wuchang Hospital is undergoing resuscitation after falling critically ill, according to the social media account of a director from Hubei Provincial Health Commission.
The conflicting reports resemble the coverage of the death of Dr Li Wenliang, who was punished for sounding the alarm over the coronavirus and lost his life to the disease earlier this month.
Cue the Spamalot song, "I'm not dead yet" again.
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