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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/11/20 at 5:40 pm to tigerfoot
Posted on 2/11/20 at 5:40 pm to tigerfoot
The next week or two will begin to tell the tale.
Part of the reason why it’s been so limited in the West was the aggressive containment being employed. They are forcibly detaining positive cases as I understand it, and following up on the case-trace investigation.
If that Brit has caused it to break cordon from the 9-20 infected late January...we will see what this virus is made of around the month mark from now.
If the non Chinese death toll is still lower than 100 45 days from now....I think it’s safe to put all of the apocalyptic hot takes to bed.
Part of the reason why it’s been so limited in the West was the aggressive containment being employed. They are forcibly detaining positive cases as I understand it, and following up on the case-trace investigation.
If that Brit has caused it to break cordon from the 9-20 infected late January...we will see what this virus is made of around the month mark from now.
If the non Chinese death toll is still lower than 100 45 days from now....I think it’s safe to put all of the apocalyptic hot takes to bed.
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 5:41 pm
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Posted on 2/11/20 at 5:46 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
However, the big naysayers in the thread have started prepping.
No. Just me. And I’m a prepper in general, so I wouldn’t read far into it. Constantly give myself contingencies, be it winter storms, viral pandemic, or stashes of booze to cope with the family over holidays.
Don’t think it’s me reassessing the overall risk of the virus. It just me hedging my bets, and this level of prep costs me literally nothing.
Still think fewer than 5k deaths is the most probable outcome after it’s all said and done, with ~10k the realistic upper limit.
A prediction I made in this thread a month ago.
So toodles. Late for a shift to BK.
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 6:01 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 5:48 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
This is where I land on this. Surely something would've popped off somewhere by now.
Now they are saying up to a 24 day incubation period.
Western medicine and protocols should be able to handle it. Though I don't like that cruise ship offloading 400 passengers in NJ with infected passengers.
I guess the concern is if it gets in India or S America....how long would it take to find out?
Posted on 2/11/20 at 5:57 pm to MrLarson
quote:
Now they are saying up to a 24 day incubation period.
It’s also worth saying that this is only the period to be 100% sure, with a day or two often added for wiggle room
80+% of cases present symptoms in the first six days after exposure, and that percentage shoots up dramatically with each additional day.
The 24 day cases are definitely the oddball
Posted on 2/11/20 at 6:54 pm to Volvagia
Getting back to that cruise ship in Japan, is there any medical sense to keep people on it? More cases were confirmed on the ship today included a Japanese health ministry official. The virus there is spreading like wildfire.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 6:58 pm to Burhead
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:09 pm to Bulletproof Lover
They do that every flu season, right?
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 7:10 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:08 pm to MrLarson
quote:
Now they are saying up to a 24 day incubation period.
Which is quite odd. The median incubation period for that study of 1099 patients was 3 DAYS.
It's quite an outlier; and I've seen some postulate a reinfection after a mild case as an explanation.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:31 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
At minimum it’s going to kill 10k Chinese.
Wtf are you talking about?
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:32 pm to slackster
Report I got from an Expat today they fled Guizhou province. Everybody quarantined to their homes. 1 pass to leave per week to buy groceries.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:43 pm to slackster
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 8:48 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:47 pm to lsulaker
quote:
Typical long OT thread where good intentions and information devolve into posters arguing with each other. Since this is such a serious situation, lets just keep this civil and stick to the relevant info such has how is it spreading, how fatal is it and how can we defeat it.
This thread was never based on factual, relevant information from jump street.
Read the damn title.
quote:
People are collapsing on Wuhan streets
For damn near a month the only welcomed updates were the bad ones.
Notice how much this thread has slowed down as the suspected cases dropped by nearly 25% today.
New confirmed cases are as low as they've been in more than a week. Crickets though, for the most part.
If you lived in Wuhan, this was kinda shitty.
If you lived in China, this was newsworthy.
If you lived anywhere else in the world? Lawnmowers in the US kill more people each year this coronavirus has everywhere else.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 9:26 pm to slackster
quote:
Notice how much this thread has slowed down as the suspected cases dropped by nearly 25% today.
New confirmed cases are as low as they've been in more than a week. Crickets though, for the most part.
You downplayed that coronavirus won’t be as big as SARS yet it did more damages than SARS in only 1/6 of the time. And coronavirus ain’t done yet. Kind of odd to be chest pounding being that wrong.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 9:32 pm to Volvagia
Yeah I never understood why someone thought an HIV tainted agent would be an optimum weapon to begin with, maybe the difficulty treating or detection like in its infancy. It is an interesting virus and has some potential to be ugly.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 9:46 pm to PeteRose
quote:
You downplayed that coronavirus won’t be as big as SARS yet it did more damages than SARS in only 1/6 of the time. And coronavirus ain’t done yet. Kind of odd to be chest pounding being that wrong.
Coronavirus has killed 1 person outside of China.
I'm sorry it hasn't been what many of you wanted. I feel your pain. I was wrong about the impact in mainland China. My b. Y'all were wrong about this killing hundreds of thousands.
I missed by a few hundred deaths, maybe a thousand.
Y'all missed by Montana.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 10:17 pm to slackster
Transcript of a phone call from a HK Dr virus specialist to a financial group.
He probably got an impressive payment for sharing his knowledge; time will tell if his predictions hold true.
He probably got an impressive payment for sharing his knowledge; time will tell if his predictions hold true.
quote:
Quick summary: look at the fatality rate outside of Wuhan - it’s below 1%. The correct comparison is not SARS or MERS but a bad cold which kills people who already have other health issues. This virus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Wash your hands.
quote:
When do you think this thing will peak?
Three things the virus does not like 1) sunlight 2) temperature and 3) humidity. To make you guys really worried. A coronavirus can survive on a stainless steel surface for 36 hours. It hangs around for quite a bit.
Sunlight will cut the virus ability to grow in half so the half-life will be 2.5 minutes and in the dark it’s about 13m to 20m. Sunlight is really good at killing viruses. That’s why I believe that Australia and the southern hemisphere will not see any great infections rates because they have lots of sunlight and they are in the middle of summer. And Wuhan and Beijing is still cold which is why there’s high infection rates.
quote:
In regards to temperature, the virus can remain intact at 4 degrees or 10 degrees for a longer period of time. But at 30 degrees then you get inactivation. And High humidity the virus doesn’t like it either. That’s why I think Sars stopped around May and June in 2003 – that’s when there’s more sunlight and more humidity. The environment is a crucial factor. The environment will be unfavourable for growth around May. The evidence is to look at the common cold – it’s always during winter. So the natural environment will not be favourable in Asia in about May.
The second factor is that of personal contact. With Sars once it was discovered that the virus was spread through the fecal oral route there was much less emphasis on the masks and far more emphasis on disinfection and washing hands. HK has far more cleanliness (than China) and they are very aware of social hygiene. And other countries will be more aware of the social hygiene (than China). So in those countries you should see less outbreaks and spreading. A couple days ago the fecal-oral route of transmission was confirmed in Shenzhen. In China, most of the latrines are open- there’s more chance of phermites (?) being spread. But in other countries the sanitations systems tends to closed. My personal view is that this will be a bad cold and it will all be over by May.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 10:31 pm to real turf fan
quote:But I was told that millions would be infected by now.
time will tell if his predictions hold true
Posted on 2/11/20 at 10:39 pm to Asharad
quote:
But I was told that millions would be infected by now.
Dude used the GOAT math to make people panic too.
50% growth every day was genius. It would underestimate the cases and deaths early on (things grow exponentially early on), so people would think the 35k deaths and 1MM cases by now would actually be conservative estimates.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 10:42 pm to slackster
You shouldn't mock me. Have you seen the streets of Wuhan? They are empty because everyone is dead and they have burned all the bodies.
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