re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

quote:

---

Flu R value fluctuates between 1.3 - 2.0 with a mortality rate below 0.1%. By all indications, this new virus is worse. The flu infected nearly 36 million people in the US last yr. Let's pray we don't see this virus become established like the flu.

---

Yep, and a new virus doesn't have to be particularly deadly to impact the economy and infrastructure, especially if its impact is additive to the flu's.

quote:

---

I'm just saying taking 171/8200 = 2% Mortality rate is a really bad way to calculate a mortality statistic when most of those 8200 havent recovered yet and hundreds are in critical condition.

Im not saying i know what it is. I'm just saying that anyone using that logic to calculate it, whether it be WHO, the CDC, or a poster on TD is kinda stupid.

---

Fair, but your point about 2% being the floor if it stopped today is still wrong. Everyone seems to agree that there are probably 5-10x, or more, people who have it but aren't getting diagnosed because they're mild or even asymptomatic the entire time. However, those people count for the true mortality rate.

Posters in this thread like to point out the flu's low mortality rate but fail to consider that it's based off of the CDC's estimated cases. The actual confirmed cases are a sliver of that. If you compared deaths to confirmed cases, the number would be much higher. It's the same for this coronavirus.

quote:

---

It’s bad news in the sense that well meaning people who would self quarantine can have no idea they are sick and spread the disease. It’s how the infections occurred in Germany.

---

It's not bad news, but good try.

Testing positive without being symptomatic means it's a damn good test, nothing more, nothing less.

Whether or not it spreads while you're asymptomatic is a different conversation, but even if that's proven to be true, being able to test for it during that stage is a good thing.

ETA: Testing positive while asymptomatic =/= you're contagious while asymptomatic

ETA.2: Saying it's bad news would be like saying an early cancer detection test is bad news. The earlier we can isolate people, the better.

quote:

---

Testing positive while asymptomatic =/= you're contagious while asymptomatic

---

in this case isn’t it confirmed that asymptomatic folks can spread the virus

Yea.

I think were some people are misunderstanding Slack is that some are incorporating the unknowns of this virus.

There are certainly some points of concern to monitor. The extent of asymptomatic transmission for example.

But simply looking at the fact tests found virus in asymptomatic individuals really only indicates that we have an accurate and reliable testing method.

We’ve known for sometime now that some people can be asymptomatic. What we do not really understand yet, is the extent of transmission for these cases.

If the main modes of transmission are coughing and sneezing, then transmission while not coughing and not sneezing - should be limited to cases of close contact with individual.

Again, extent of transmission is still yet to fully be understood. So while wise to monitor and even have some concern. You really cant apply suppositions to make every little news update about the virus a bigger deal than it is.

We should have better idea in next 1-2 weeks how this thing is gonna go outside of China, in terms of spreading. Then still room for concern for self-sustaining infection, possible mutations, etc.

quote:

---

Coronavirus update:
- 9,171 confirmed cases worldwide
- 12,167 suspected cases
- 213 fatalities
- 1,476 in serious/critical condition
- 150 treated and released
- All regions of China reporting cases
- 20 countries reporting cases

---

ETA suspected cases needs this update

quote:

---

The number of suspected cases in China has risen to 15,238, up from 12,167 yesterday

---

Has there been any update on how those in 1st world countries with the virus are doing?

I know there are no deaths, but are any of them the critical cases? Or is good old, high quality treatment, helping kick this things arse?

quote:

---

The fact is we don't know the denominator or the numerator, and 2% is absolutely not the floor.

---

Researchers that have reviewed actual data put it between 2 - 11%. However, I think we can all agree that the data coming out of China is somewhat suspect but we can't pick and choose when we want to rely on the data and when we don't. It's suspected that the outbreak started in early December in Wuhan, so maybe other areas, esp outside of China, might be 4 - 6 weeks behind? It will be interesting to see how this evolves in the coming weeks.

At what point do people stop reporting or seeking treatment in China because the hospitals are full and understaffed?