re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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They nailed the Theodore Roosevelt CFR.

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Did they though? If 65% of cases are symptomatic, then 65% of 1156 cases is 751. So 1 death per 751 symptomatic cases. And that’s probably a group of adults that is far healthier than the overall population.

Compare that to the 2017-2018 flu season, the deadliest in decades with 61,099 deaths a symptomatic CFR of 0.14%. The 18-49 group (not just healthy military personnel), has 2,802 deaths out of 14,428,065 symptomatic cases. That is 1 death per 5,147 symptomatic cases.

So that puts COVID-19’s symptomatic CFR as 6.9 times greater than the 2017-2018 season with a less risky population on top of that. And 6.9 times the 2017-2018 symptomatic CFR is 0.95% or so.

And since I’m average, 84% of flu infections are symptomatic, and using the 65% symptomatic COVID estimate, that puts the IFR between 0.7 to 0.75 percent, exactly the range for the average of the 25 studies in the meta-analysis I’ve cited.

And you get a similar result doing the same thing for the 14 deaths on the Diamond Princess cruise ship with the older population.

So they missed the symptomatic portion of IFR. Who cares?

The complete IFR of the Theodore Roosevelt is .08%
CDC had .05% for 0-49 (the majority of the Roosevelt's crew) and .2% for 50-64, which there are some on the crew that age.

So, according to the CDC, the Roosevelt should have been around .06% or .07% overall.

Don't know why you are trying so hard.

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So, according to the CDC, the Roosevelt should have been around .06% or .07% overall.

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That still puts the IFR at over 2 times the CDC’s estimate. And that’s using a group that is undoubtedly much healthier than the normal population.

So all of our residents who had tested negative for COVID have been reswabbed and tests rerun under the "guidance of OPH". From what I can tell in the EMR, these were all still negative.

So yeah for the little things. We started with I think 74 long term people on my last visit in March. We're down to 49 (not counting 2 admits this week). A few are still in the hospital (2 or 3?), 2 were d/c to family, and the rest expired. Some died in the facility but some were in the hospital.

Sad all around.

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There’s really no point in arguing this. We should bring this thread back to posting the most up to date findings. We were doing well for awhile.

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Fair enough. The ship data is more informative regarding the spread of the virus than its lethality anyways, unless we just happened to have a ship that was demographically representative to some degree at least.

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A number of early cases of the outbreak in Wuhan were tied to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Later, researchers took environmental samples that suggested the virus had landed on surfaces in the market. But in the period since, tissue samples from the market's animals have revealed no trace of the virus. For the virus to jump from animals to humans, the animals have to actually be carrying it. None of the animals tested positive.


We already knew this but China admits the virus didn’t come from the wet market. Looks like all us “conspiracy theorists” were right.

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For the longest time, anyone on this board who suggested that the virus originated anywhere other than the wet market was ridiculed and downvoted into oblivion. Given all the attention paid to this respiratory virus, I am surprised that more attention isn't being given to just how it all started. My guess is that if there were an innocent explanation China would be shouting it from the rooftops and would be completely transparent about it.

In the battle of how to interpret any TR data - I'll award my winning vote to Buckeye.

Regarding the "some of the crew are 50-64 YO comment." The answer is yes, but maybe like 4 people....and just scraping 50 unless they had multiple Admirals riding along at the time (not impossible). The Command Master Chief has a shot and the fired CO had JUST turned 50.

Enlisted high school graduates start "retiring" at 38 - if they stay in. Most don't, leading to a vast majority of the crew existing in the 18-24 age bracket. The death was a 41 year old Chief - a position that would have been well within the top 5% oldest people on the ship. When I got out at 25, I was older than all but 2 people in my division of 12 people.

And that's with NO diabetics. You may indeed see low level obesity (BMI 30-ish) and some hypertension.

This gets back to the current death split between active duty and dependent (wives and children of active duty members - so same age demographic but mostly female and children thrown into the mix as well).

Active duty (mostly male, but restricted in number of comorbidities): 6,221 cases, 3 deaths (0.05%).

Dependents: 1,071 cases, 5 deaths (0.47%). However, this demographic is not limited in mass or comorbidity (Google the following terms: Bremalo, Grotopotomus).

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For the longest time, anyone on this board who suggested that the virus originated anywhere other than the wet market was ridiculed and downvoted into oblivion

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"Conspiracy theorist!!!"

"Follow the science!!!"


Oh, it didnt come from the wet markets?


Silence.....

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Any news on the Ochsner antibody study?

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24,396 total tested for antibodies

9.4% positive rate across the state and all demographics

Of note, we have more covid patients in Shreveport now than Nola

2,350 positive covid discharges across our system so far


Thats the main points from tuesdays meeting