BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other

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A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock.

The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager.

That means policymakers will no longer be able to support markets as much as they did during past recessions, a team of BlackRock strategists led by vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand wrote in a report titled 2023 Global Outlook.

"Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It's the opposite of past recessions," they said. "Central bankers won't ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don't yet reflect the damage ahead."

The prospect of limited policy support means investors need more dynamic methods — involving more frequent portfolio changes and taking a more "granular view on sectors, regions and sub-asset classes" — to navigate the volatility ahead, according to BlackRock.

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"What worked in the past won't work now," the strategists said. "The old playbook of simply "buying the dip" doesn't apply in this regime of sharper trade-offs and greater macro volatility. We don't see a return to conditions that will sustain a joint bull market in stocks and bonds of the kind we experienced in the prior decade."

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Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon sees just a 35% chance that the US economy avoids a recession.

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