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Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:14 pm to rt3
quote:
well then I must be a scientist... b/c I would definitely write that shite
You, who are in all of our weather threads...
Nah, can't believe it.
If I ever end up writing forecast discussions in life, I am certain to have a high ratio of cringeworthy puns per discussion.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:17 pm to Duke
quote:
Bets blocker
Just call it Labatelol.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:17 pm to Duke
Random posts on Twitter are one thing. Discussions go in the record.
Funny to picture someone researching hurricanes in 2100 running across shite like that.
Funny to picture someone researching hurricanes in 2100 running across shite like that.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:23 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Funny to picture someone researching hurricanes in 2100 running across shite like that.
Not appreciating the joke because we all have synthetic hearts by that point, which makes me sad to think about.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:30 pm to Duke
quote:
You, who are in all of our weather threads...
Nah, can't believe it.
never would've thought I'd have someone agree... even sarcastically... that I could be considered a scientist
ETA: I iz the smarts
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:40 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Teddy is helping this season with ACE
i’ve seen it mentioned a couple times, but what is ACE?
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:42 pm to rt3
I thought everyone who posts on TD is either a missile surgeon or a brain scientist.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:44 pm to Jwho77
quote:
I thought everyone who posts on TD is either a missile surgeon or a brain scientist.
I'm just a lowly worker in college athletics
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:45 pm to rds dc
Beta? We ran out of names already?
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:45 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
i’ve seen it mentioned a couple times, but what is ACE?
Wiki
quote:
Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy used by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:45 pm to rt3
quote:
I'm just a lowly brain scientist in college athletics
FIFY
We have a reputation to uphold.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:48 pm to rt3
quote:
what is ACE?
Now we're talking. Jokers and one-eyed jacks are wild. Duke can cut the cards.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 4:57 pm to Jwho77
quote:
Sam Lillo
@splillo
Latest map of ACE anomalies across the Atlantic so far this year. And 2005 for comparison.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 5:15 pm to lsuman25
quote:
One change in the track guidance since the previous
forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward
motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The
latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it
is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that
Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts
out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track
forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact
forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5.
We have already seen that today with a short term NE shift b/w track #4 & #5 but the NHC brings it back to basically the same spot by Sunday morning. The current convective pattern favors stretching of the low level vortex to the NE. With an upper level trough to the NW of the system the favored area for convection is downshear in the area of the best upper level divergence (between the red arrows). Continued intense convection in that area could add additional NE shifts to the track.
However, after looking at the 12z ensembles it isn't really clear that there will be any long term impacts from a short term track that is more northeastward.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 5:23 pm to LoneStar23
quote:
Beta? We ran out of names already?
For prespective - in 2005, Alpha and Beta formed in late October and we finished with Zeta after Christmas. At this pace, an Omicron or Pi isn't out of the question.
JFC, Tropical Storm Omicron for Christmas everybody!
Posted on 9/18/20 at 5:26 pm to rds dc
quote:
With an upper level trough to the NW of the system the favored area for convection is downshear in the area of the best upper level divergence (between the red arrows).
You'll sometimes hear "right front entrance" of a jet during severe weather season. Well...there one is right there and you can see the result of more convection.
That's it for the aside.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 5:26 pm to rds dc
Another try at recon this evening after getting canceled this morning.
Could be a bumpy ride given the intense convection. How far removed are those storms from the LLC? If close enough, then we might see some surprising data. If too far away, then probably just looks impressive on satellite.
Could be a bumpy ride given the intense convection. How far removed are those storms from the LLC? If close enough, then we might see some surprising data. If too far away, then probably just looks impressive on satellite.
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 9/18/20 at 5:27 pm to LegendInMyMind
Those guys at NHC are high as shite. Let’s see how bad they frick this Beta storm forecast up ?
Posted on 9/18/20 at 5:30 pm to Klingler7
Of course 2020 would give us a storm named “Beta”.
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