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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/3/24 at 10:50 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 7/3/24 at 10:50 pm to LegendInMyMind
Serious question, why don’t more storms slam into Northern portion of South America?
Currents?
Currents?
4
Posted on 7/3/24 at 10:58 pm to lsusteve1
Always wondered that myself. Great question.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 11:15 pm to lsusteve1
quote:
Serious question, why don’t more storms slam into Northern portion of South America?
It's really hard for a storm to spin and maintain that close to the equator.
Someone smarter than me will explain in better detail I'm sure.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 11:21 pm to lsusteve1
The same reason storms don’t cross the equator.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 11:21 pm to notiger1997
Looks like I was right so far. Projected path keeps moving further north….just like I said. Keep watching.
Posted on 7/3/24 at 11:35 pm to tigerbutt
I never doubted you. 
Posted on 7/4/24 at 12:06 am to lsusteve1
It’s called the Coriolis force. Storms can’t get close to the equator because they can’t spin. Storms actually spin clockwise in the southern hemisphere. If you Google it you can find a lot of graphics that can explain it
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 9:50 pm
Posted on 7/4/24 at 12:23 am to Mini
Posted on 7/4/24 at 12:23 am to Mini
Did not disappoint... There always one spaghetti model that goes right up the wazoo of New Orleans...
Posted on 7/4/24 at 12:28 am to Mini
quote:
It’s called the Coriolis force. Storms can’t get close to the equator because they can’t spin. It has to do with the magnetic poles
You started off well but tripped before the finish line.
Posted on 7/4/24 at 12:37 am to jaytothen
quote:
Someone smarter than me will explain in better detail I'm sure.
It’s called the Dopler Effect. As the hurricane pics up speed it causes an echo of sorts. This in turn dissipates much of the energy.
Posted on 7/4/24 at 1:20 am to Cosmo
quote:
Yeah once they have a well defined center of circulation they are really good.
Let me adjust my tinfoil hat, but it could be the HARP weather machine is doing its job and sharing info with the NHC.
Posted on 7/4/24 at 2:05 am to sparesomechange
quote:
sparesomechange
quote:
loose the money
Checks out…
Posted on 7/4/24 at 3:57 am to jaytothen
quote:
It's really hard for a storm to spin and maintain that close to the equator.
The earth spins faster near the Equator, because it's always a 24 hour day but high latitudes have less distance to cover in the same time.
Near the Equator the difference between the top and bottom of the storm is too small to create spin.
This post was edited on 7/4/24 at 4:10 am
Posted on 7/4/24 at 4:54 am to LegendInMyMind
(not trying to be a dick here and thanks to them for all that they do).
Yes, that looks pretty good from space, but I would argue that their track prediction prior to Beryl crossing the Westwards was not really that grand.....and even after, vis-a-vis Jamaica. Zoom in closer and see if you still think it is that good, because to me, the actual storm track was considerably to the north of the cone center.
For instance, the early track predictions regarding the storm going south of Jamaica and having minimal interactions with the island were wrong. Those predictions are not shown in this plot.
In a plot like that is shown here, it really helps to make you look accurate when your predictions are updated every 2 - 4 hours and then put into the historical track plot and the previous, less accurate predictions are removed. As you can see from this plot, it appears that they predicted Beryl affecting Jamaica in a major way very early on, when in fact, they didn't predict that until much later. The storm didn't take the predicted straight Westward shift and instead kept moving more northwesterly toward Jamaica and then they finally put that course into their predictions after it started getting closer to the island.
The poster that put this plot on here and represented it as verification of the accuracy of some very early NHC storm track predictions is wrong.....that is not what this plot shows. This is a plot that has been updated multiple times with new predictions put in and the older, less accurate predictions removed. As such, it provides little value other than hopefully the actual storm track is correct.
Yes, that looks pretty good from space, but I would argue that their track prediction prior to Beryl crossing the Westwards was not really that grand.....and even after, vis-a-vis Jamaica. Zoom in closer and see if you still think it is that good, because to me, the actual storm track was considerably to the north of the cone center.
For instance, the early track predictions regarding the storm going south of Jamaica and having minimal interactions with the island were wrong. Those predictions are not shown in this plot.
In a plot like that is shown here, it really helps to make you look accurate when your predictions are updated every 2 - 4 hours and then put into the historical track plot and the previous, less accurate predictions are removed. As you can see from this plot, it appears that they predicted Beryl affecting Jamaica in a major way very early on, when in fact, they didn't predict that until much later. The storm didn't take the predicted straight Westward shift and instead kept moving more northwesterly toward Jamaica and then they finally put that course into their predictions after it started getting closer to the island.
The poster that put this plot on here and represented it as verification of the accuracy of some very early NHC storm track predictions is wrong.....that is not what this plot shows. This is a plot that has been updated multiple times with new predictions put in and the older, less accurate predictions removed. As such, it provides little value other than hopefully the actual storm track is correct.
This post was edited on 7/4/24 at 7:49 am
Posted on 7/4/24 at 5:41 am to tigerbutt
quote:
Projected path keeps moving further north….just like I said. Keep watching.
Wut? Ensembles are actually taking any northern gulf solutions out
This will be a south Texas, north Mexico system
Posted on 7/4/24 at 5:58 am to Mr Breeze
quote:
You started off well but tripped before the finish line.
Sounds like something a teacher would write on a school paper.
If I ever become a teacher, I may use it.
Posted on 7/4/24 at 6:56 am to Bestbank Tiger
Accident DV…this is correct.
Posted on 7/4/24 at 7:15 am to Athis
quote:
There always one spaghetti model that goes right up the wazoo of New Orleans...
Posted on 7/4/24 at 7:47 am to t00f
Storm would have to take an abrupt 90 degree right turn at Yucatan for that track to be correct.
This post was edited on 7/4/24 at 9:10 am
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