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re: Antibody study out of NY just released: 14% of state residents have antibodies
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:05 pm to Bristol Dawg
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:05 pm to Bristol Dawg
quote:
What I haven’t seen yet are studies showing that antibodies = immunity
If they don't, then there's also no hope for a vaccine, which also means that this staying home stuff is BS, unless of course we're ready to live this way forever.
1
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:06 pm to Cosmo
If it ends up being the case that significant community spread happened prior to the shutdowns, with no overrun of hospitals between February and mid-March, will it be fair to say that all the shutdowns accomplished was limiting the amount of herd immunity?
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:09 pm to uway
quote:
If it ends up being the case that significant community spread happened prior to the shutdowns, with no overrun of hospitals between February and mid-March, will it be fair to say that all the shutdowns accomplished was limiting the amount of herd immunity?
Not fair. I'm all about opening it up, but I think shutdowns like sporting events and anything over 25 or 50 people or whatever made sense. Maybe shutting down a limited amount of businesses that had routine face to face interactions.
So I don't think it was a complete over reaction at all. I just don't think in our country where we are already naturally more spread out that many countries an almost complete shutdown made sense.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:11 pm to baldona
quote:
Not fair. I'm all about opening it up, but I think shutdowns like sporting events and anything over 25 or 50 people or whatever made sense. Maybe shutting down a limited amount of businesses that had routine face to face interactions.
Maybe, but doesn't that calculation change if it turns out that 99.5%+ of people survive it?
Seems like it would make much more sense to be honest about the risk factors and let herd immunity happen.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:14 pm to msutiger
quote:
As rough as things have been, they are still a ways away from herd immunity
Immunity doesn't work like a light switch like the guys on TV make you think... even 20% immunity does have an effect on transmission. Just like sunlight, social distancing, heat, humidity, etc, etc. My point is that this news plus all of the other variables most probably gets us to an R0 way less than 1.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
And remember, this percentage doesn't even account for the current asymptomatic population that has it or has had it in the last 2 weeks... since it takes at least that long to create antibodies. This 14% number will continue to increase fairly quickly until the "confirmed" cases gets very low.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:19 pm to setinways
What I'm confused about is I'm seeing people talk about needing 80% or more of infected people in order to get us to a good case for herd immunity. Ok, fair. But these same people are saying we need to stay locked down until that point.
How exactly are we supposed to get there if everyone has to stay locked down? Seems like it would take many slow, painful years to hit that point.
How exactly are we supposed to get there if everyone has to stay locked down? Seems like it would take many slow, painful years to hit that point.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:20 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
So the mortality rate is actually between 0.5% and 0.6%.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:21 pm to Ross
quote:
seems like this suggests the mortality rate is quite low for this virus if I'm reading this information correctly, and that herd immunity will be accomplished faster than expected.
...And circle gets the square
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:22 pm to Mo Jeaux
quote:
If they don't, then there's also no hope for a vaccine, which also means that this staying home stuff is BS, unless of course we're ready to live this way forever.
yeah all bets are off if we don't produce natural antibodies.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:23 pm to GRTiger
quote:
How exactly are we supposed to get there if everyone has to stay locked down? Seems like it would take many slow, painful years to hit that point.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 12:23 pm to baldona
quote:
Not fair. I'm all about opening it up, but I think shutdowns like sporting events and anything over 25 or 50 people or whatever made sense. Maybe shutting down a limited amount of businesses that had routine face to face interactions.
So I don't think it was a complete over reaction at all. I just don't think in our country where we are already naturally more spread out that many countries an almost complete shutdown made sense.
I’m firmly on Team Open the Damn Thing Up but I agree with you. They erred on the side of caution and were taking what was happening in other countries into account. I’m glad that my governor (TN) is changing policy as the data changes and the picture becomes more clear.
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